I struggle with the core premise of this entire exercise, that is the attempt to impose rational criteria upon an essentially irrational decision. A core principle I live by is that people arent rational, we just rationalise the emotional decisions we were always going to make. I suspect your tools will be mostly that - post hoc rationalisations of previous decisions.
Having said all that one thing I'm curious about is how you'd model Des(cum) - ie the cumulative desire for a number of watches vs the unique desire for any one of them. I feel your model tends to drive towards a 1:1 comparision between a (for example) 120k watch and a 15 k watch but what is the value of looking into a box and seeing 8 watches instead of one? For a real life practical example - consider the recent tag-kith collab. Purchasing the box of all of them was a 20ish% premium over buying each individually because the collection was quite literally worth more than the sum off its parts. Perhaps instead of considering watches, consider alternative collections to a given dollar value?
I guess Im curious because thats my approach - I want a watch collection, not a collection of watches. I know what I want my collection to be and the purchasing decision is not will I buy this watch instead of that watch but rather will I buy this watch now and that watch later.
Here, this is where the ‘analysis’ would take place to plot, and map everything you have, and everything you want. There will of course be no universal answer, but given the input is all your own subjective ranking, the output should allow for scoring value over volume.
good post! i think juanola's perspective hits it for me – it takes owning a number of $20k-30k watches to figure out which $120k watch (or choose whichever prices you'd like) would actually prove to have that much value for you.
Hey Tony! Missed this due to travels… agreed, I don’t know of many who just leap into 6 figs + on a whim. That said, I know a couple, and they are interesting case studies too !!
Good post, very thought provoking and thorough as always! My grails are quite modest and in reach for the first time in my life. Obviously I’d love a VC overseas dual time but I’d ideally like to pay retail (who wouldn’t?) and I’ll have to play the long game for that, I’m not sure I could walk in and get one. There’s nothing in my wheelhouse at a more expensive price point at the moment. In the meantime I got a modern Milgauss last summer at retail which I love and had been looking for since… can’t even remember, probably since about 2010 or earlier. It means more to me than a platinum day date (and yes I’ve tried one on, it was a beast!) My other grails are a birth year speedy, birth year 5513, first gen Ingenieur, a 40mm Explorer II and weirdly a revived 2003/2004 Railmaster. I could of course forgo all of them for a VC. I could attempt to rationalise it but ultimately each of those watches has their own meaning to me, I like them enough to part with the cash to experience them, own them, enjoy them, and I don’t think I’ll lose (much) money on any of them in the process. My tastes will change and I accept that and will embrace that and I love love love love smaller more independent brands. That will definitely be my focus from here on. I went to WAW this year but while in Geneva went to Barton 7, AHCI, and the other little breakaway group at the Hotel Beau Rivage and feel I’m barely scratching the surface.
For starters, some might argue a grail, by definition, should always be OUT of reach and others say it should be UNattainable altogether. For me, that’s all BS - I don’t worry about things I don’t ever reasonably be able to afford. So anyway, I digress. 😂
VC is fully attainable at retail, you should pursue that in anger.
And finally, yes, you’re scratching the surface only. Try and visit Rexhep Rexhepi - ideally during JP Hagmann’s lifetime. You won’t regret it.
Thank you, to be honest until recently it felt like there is a greater chance of NASA landing on the moon again in my lifetime than finding a birth year Speedmaster; as for unattainable, we have museums for that kind of caper! Thank you for your support. Will plan my next Geneva itinerary soon! 🙏🏻🫡
That meaning you find in the more personal approach with independent watchmakers is an area which will probably resonate with many other indie enthusiasts... I do wonder if it’s just the inclusive nature of the interactions, rather than the vision of the maker... take Ondrej Berkus- he works well with others, his designs are interesting to some, and by his own admission he’s “sold out” until 2040. He doesn’t have any vision beyond just making cool stuff and so, unlike someone like Felipe Pikulik who has more of a vision in the traditional sense, he’s just a guy who makes stuff which might be cool. I have this debate with myself a lot too... no answers here, just more musings.
Very interesting and something I've been thinking about alot. I don't buy watches for other people to enjoy. I also don't buy for value, but after value/value retention certainly makes the justification for spending the money easier. Living in Houston, and having relatively unknown, albeit somewhat expensive watches, I have no concerns about security. What I have discovered is that even more than the monetary value of the watch is the value of the relationships associated with the purchase. I gravitate towards small independent watch brands because I value the ability to meet the watchmaker, understand their vision and philosophy. Following their journey and knowing I'm wearing a part of that journey is exceptionally meaningful for me.
That said, I do like the Nautilus for 5k, even if I couldn't sell it. But I could give it to my kids when I die and they could sell it. Nothing like a loophole. 😂
I struggle with the core premise of this entire exercise, that is the attempt to impose rational criteria upon an essentially irrational decision. A core principle I live by is that people arent rational, we just rationalise the emotional decisions we were always going to make. I suspect your tools will be mostly that - post hoc rationalisations of previous decisions.
Having said all that one thing I'm curious about is how you'd model Des(cum) - ie the cumulative desire for a number of watches vs the unique desire for any one of them. I feel your model tends to drive towards a 1:1 comparision between a (for example) 120k watch and a 15 k watch but what is the value of looking into a box and seeing 8 watches instead of one? For a real life practical example - consider the recent tag-kith collab. Purchasing the box of all of them was a 20ish% premium over buying each individually because the collection was quite literally worth more than the sum off its parts. Perhaps instead of considering watches, consider alternative collections to a given dollar value?
I guess Im curious because thats my approach - I want a watch collection, not a collection of watches. I know what I want my collection to be and the purchasing decision is not will I buy this watch instead of that watch but rather will I buy this watch now and that watch later.
I may be wrong - so please let me know if that is the case - but I think what you’re alluding to, is addressed in a post mentioned at the top: https://www.screwdowncrown.com/p/the-watch-collectors-matrix
Here, this is where the ‘analysis’ would take place to plot, and map everything you have, and everything you want. There will of course be no universal answer, but given the input is all your own subjective ranking, the output should allow for scoring value over volume.
good post! i think juanola's perspective hits it for me – it takes owning a number of $20k-30k watches to figure out which $120k watch (or choose whichever prices you'd like) would actually prove to have that much value for you.
Hey Tony! Missed this due to travels… agreed, I don’t know of many who just leap into 6 figs + on a whim. That said, I know a couple, and they are interesting case studies too !!
Good post, very thought provoking and thorough as always! My grails are quite modest and in reach for the first time in my life. Obviously I’d love a VC overseas dual time but I’d ideally like to pay retail (who wouldn’t?) and I’ll have to play the long game for that, I’m not sure I could walk in and get one. There’s nothing in my wheelhouse at a more expensive price point at the moment. In the meantime I got a modern Milgauss last summer at retail which I love and had been looking for since… can’t even remember, probably since about 2010 or earlier. It means more to me than a platinum day date (and yes I’ve tried one on, it was a beast!) My other grails are a birth year speedy, birth year 5513, first gen Ingenieur, a 40mm Explorer II and weirdly a revived 2003/2004 Railmaster. I could of course forgo all of them for a VC. I could attempt to rationalise it but ultimately each of those watches has their own meaning to me, I like them enough to part with the cash to experience them, own them, enjoy them, and I don’t think I’ll lose (much) money on any of them in the process. My tastes will change and I accept that and will embrace that and I love love love love smaller more independent brands. That will definitely be my focus from here on. I went to WAW this year but while in Geneva went to Barton 7, AHCI, and the other little breakaway group at the Hotel Beau Rivage and feel I’m barely scratching the surface.
For starters, some might argue a grail, by definition, should always be OUT of reach and others say it should be UNattainable altogether. For me, that’s all BS - I don’t worry about things I don’t ever reasonably be able to afford. So anyway, I digress. 😂
VC is fully attainable at retail, you should pursue that in anger.
And finally, yes, you’re scratching the surface only. Try and visit Rexhep Rexhepi - ideally during JP Hagmann’s lifetime. You won’t regret it.
Thank you, to be honest until recently it felt like there is a greater chance of NASA landing on the moon again in my lifetime than finding a birth year Speedmaster; as for unattainable, we have museums for that kind of caper! Thank you for your support. Will plan my next Geneva itinerary soon! 🙏🏻🫡
That meaning you find in the more personal approach with independent watchmakers is an area which will probably resonate with many other indie enthusiasts... I do wonder if it’s just the inclusive nature of the interactions, rather than the vision of the maker... take Ondrej Berkus- he works well with others, his designs are interesting to some, and by his own admission he’s “sold out” until 2040. He doesn’t have any vision beyond just making cool stuff and so, unlike someone like Felipe Pikulik who has more of a vision in the traditional sense, he’s just a guy who makes stuff which might be cool. I have this debate with myself a lot too... no answers here, just more musings.
Very interesting and something I've been thinking about alot. I don't buy watches for other people to enjoy. I also don't buy for value, but after value/value retention certainly makes the justification for spending the money easier. Living in Houston, and having relatively unknown, albeit somewhat expensive watches, I have no concerns about security. What I have discovered is that even more than the monetary value of the watch is the value of the relationships associated with the purchase. I gravitate towards small independent watch brands because I value the ability to meet the watchmaker, understand their vision and philosophy. Following their journey and knowing I'm wearing a part of that journey is exceptionally meaningful for me.
That said, I do like the Nautilus for 5k, even if I couldn't sell it. But I could give it to my kids when I die and they could sell it. Nothing like a loophole. 😂
I replied to you above but didn’t register as a reply. Apologies!