ScrewDownCrown

ScrewDownCrown

Beyond Binary Thinking

Probabilistic thinking and evidence-based confidence levels

kingflum's avatar
kingflum
Sep 19, 2025
∙ Paid
26
26
1
Share

A century ago, mathematician William Clifford argued that “it is wrong always, everywhere, and for anyone, to believe anything upon insufficient evidence.” This is a pretty binary approach, in that you either have sufficient evidence or you don’t; the problem for us, is that this thinking has infected many parts of our hobby. Many folks treat brand evaluations like courtroom verdicts; either Lange is trustworthy or not, either the movement is “in-house” or it’s outsourced, either microbrand X offers good value or it doesn’t…

This is preposterous.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 kingflum
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture