Really appreciate you taking such a holistic look. There’s a lot of data out there and taking all of it into account here really helps paint a snapshot picture. I agree with your thought that for collectors it’s two-fold. We’re wondering if this could spell the slow death for some favorites while hoping for better deals on some favorite pieces. The market curveball is that the conglomerates have some built in safety nets by owning economies of scale. we already hear about layoffs from certain brands and that’s going to happen in any market. The people who are way off base are the ones selling clicks saying watches are a dying market. Clearly a major correction is taking place but it’s far from dying. Thank you for another wonderful article!
The inclusion of Moser is an interesting one because there are no comps, which possibly makes the YoY / QoQ developments seem worse than they likely are. Is it a correction from hype territory for the Streamliner or is it a rejection by the market of everything that is "Very Rare"? Would be interesting to see how Czapek fares in comparison - I see the two companies as operating in the same playing field.
According to the Morgan Stanley primary market report for 2023, Moser produced 3,500 watches. Czapek has publicly claimed, if I recall correctly, their goal is 1,000 watches a year. Some of their watches may be comparable in terms of product and price point, but total production directly impacts secondary market supply. (And in Czapek's case means there is insufficient data to compute market prices and then perform the same sort of analysis as was done here for Moser)
As a simple enthusiast, what I see as the consolidated takeaway here is that it may no longer be my turn in the barrel. Time to let Rolex take a couple shifts.
Tbh I don’t think they will ever care to take a shift at all 😂
Watches aren’t even their primary income generation source - so all these market shifts and economic cycles are merely a planning exercise for them. Delay a launch. Accelerate it. No real concern for business health the way any other group would approach it. Rather incredible to see.
That's the wonderful thing about watching Rolex, their insulation from the short-term demands of shareholders. I worked at a couple companies that were tanked by chasing ever steeper quarterly goals, so it warms my heart to watch a company running without looking at their feet. Even if it does mean that for a while they've enabled their ADs to behave like titanic dicks.
So that's what I mean, really. Time for the ADs to pick up a few shifts in the barrel.
Excellent article.
Thanks for taking the time, Mark!
Really appreciate you taking such a holistic look. There’s a lot of data out there and taking all of it into account here really helps paint a snapshot picture. I agree with your thought that for collectors it’s two-fold. We’re wondering if this could spell the slow death for some favorites while hoping for better deals on some favorite pieces. The market curveball is that the conglomerates have some built in safety nets by owning economies of scale. we already hear about layoffs from certain brands and that’s going to happen in any market. The people who are way off base are the ones selling clicks saying watches are a dying market. Clearly a major correction is taking place but it’s far from dying. Thank you for another wonderful article!
Thanks for taking the time to read it! Happy Friday 👊
I used to look forward to obtaining the report, now I look forward to your summary of it. Nicely done!
What a lovely thing to read, thank you for saying so!
Lol high on coke paid for by bitcoins 🤣🤪🥳
Really, that’s what you took away? 😂
I aint here for the stats nerd ✌️
😂 MIT softened you
The inclusion of Moser is an interesting one because there are no comps, which possibly makes the YoY / QoQ developments seem worse than they likely are. Is it a correction from hype territory for the Streamliner or is it a rejection by the market of everything that is "Very Rare"? Would be interesting to see how Czapek fares in comparison - I see the two companies as operating in the same playing field.
According to the Morgan Stanley primary market report for 2023, Moser produced 3,500 watches. Czapek has publicly claimed, if I recall correctly, their goal is 1,000 watches a year. Some of their watches may be comparable in terms of product and price point, but total production directly impacts secondary market supply. (And in Czapek's case means there is insufficient data to compute market prices and then perform the same sort of analysis as was done here for Moser)
Thank you, Hamza!
Higher the highs, the more prolonged the lows…..
Should you still chase higher highs, or avoid them to avoid the lower lows?
Nah mate. Ain’t no fun in stability.
I think you’ve pulled me over to this camp over time
Great report. Commodities will be commodities
Cheers SG.
As a simple enthusiast, what I see as the consolidated takeaway here is that it may no longer be my turn in the barrel. Time to let Rolex take a couple shifts.
Tbh I don’t think they will ever care to take a shift at all 😂
Watches aren’t even their primary income generation source - so all these market shifts and economic cycles are merely a planning exercise for them. Delay a launch. Accelerate it. No real concern for business health the way any other group would approach it. Rather incredible to see.
That's the wonderful thing about watching Rolex, their insulation from the short-term demands of shareholders. I worked at a couple companies that were tanked by chasing ever steeper quarterly goals, so it warms my heart to watch a company running without looking at their feet. Even if it does mean that for a while they've enabled their ADs to behave like titanic dicks.
So that's what I mean, really. Time for the ADs to pick up a few shifts in the barrel.
Gotcha, and agreed. Schadenfreude never felt so good.
Great summation of the data.
Thanks for reading FD