Okay, yeah: "Why pay retail when the same watch is available pre-owned at a 35% discount with the depreciation already priced in?" Stupidity, as posited (semi-jokingly) in the next graf? Well, maybe. But maybe just 'cause buyers of new watches like the assurance that they're new, straight off the factory (oh, sorry, atelier) floor, warranted by the maker, and not subject to the perhaps brutal whims of their previous owner. That, and, also, old fart that I am, I like being able to look someone straight in the eye when I buy something pricey. Not straight onto a screen. (It's one thing to buy a lawn chair from Amazon. A fine watch ain't no lawn chair.)
And that, maybe, is also part of why Rolex's CPO program is doing so well. You march into the Rolex AD, all hot and ready to trot out with a brand-new Sub on your wrist, only to find out that...you have no more chance of that than you have of spending a night in bed with your favorite movie star. Oh my gawd, the disappointment! The anguish!
BUT...wait, what's that? Holy crap, could it be? Yes, it could! Just a few feet outside of the room with the crushing emptiness of its "display only" vitrines, you notice a whole showcase full of gleaming Rolex watches, utterly indistinguishable from brand new ones, refurbished and warranted by...yes! Rolex itself! And, oh my dear sweet God in Heaven, there's a Sub in there! And, okay, so it's a few thou more than you were planning to pay, but hey, you were going to fork over quite a few thousands anyway, so what's another few thou if it lets you walk out into the sunshine that very day with the Sub of your dreams sparkling on your wrist?
you can, if you wish, get the full “luxury boutique” experience for pre-owned watches of other brands too. in larger cities anyway (ny, boston, philly etc.). some of these pre-owned stores are fancier than many rolex ad stores, and there will be no discomfort or worry buying a patek or lange from them at 35% off. they stand by their inventory, and will ship it for factory service if needed at their own expense.
Seriously? I had no idea. That does change the equation, I must say. The one time I bought a used watch--a gorgeous Arnold & Son 8-Day--was from an AD I knew, from whom I had bought several new watches. And, like the dealers you mention, when I noticed that when the watch was wound the second hand was not moving, they had it repaired by Arnold & Son, at their expense. AFTER we had agreed on a price, which they did not change. But this was primarily an AD for new watches, and their used selection was not very big. I just got lucky that day.
it’s not luck, it’s the norm. otherwise, no one would buy from them. there are multiple pre-owned dealers in this country (that i know of) who generate nine figures in annual sales.
there is nothing like buying a new watch of course, but the savings are too big to ignore when it comes to haute horlogerie. unless you’re working towards a prized allocation, buying new is not really worth it. and it keeps the brands on their toes when it comes to pricing.
Offering an anecdote of n=1, years ago my wife and I were at a watch and jewelry store and as we looked at the Cartier watches she said "If we ever got a Cartier, we should probably get it from an AD because the secondary has for Cartier is notorious for the large number of counterfeit watches."
The clones have only gotten better since then, and it must be that some clones slip through the watchful eyes of the secondary sellers.
-6% for the 1908 is unreal! that makes it objectively the most desirable mainstream dress-watch line, even over patek, vacheron and lange, and only eclipsed by journe and low-volume indies.
clears the way for complications in the 1908 line to take over a segment of the market they’ve never dominated before. that is likely where a lot of the additional capacity from their new factories will be directed.
And where the cool calendar complication patents we saw a while ago might end up... that would be interesting indeed. It's one thing to try and compete with 'sports' watches... but if Rolex comes for the others' so-called bread and butter... we will need popcorn.
even the the discontinued cellini models (time-only, date, dual-time and moonphase) from a few years ago, that everyone made fun of, have held their values remarkably well. better than all dress pateks 😂 and those were fairly thick watches with solid casebacks. imagine a sub-11mm calendar watch, it’ll be game over, people like me will buy it no matter what.
I’m out of my finance depth here but I wonder two things, 1) if a narrow K can explain new and preowned both rising, ie some people still can’t afford new but they’re still buying watches; 2) is there a magic number where certain references plateau in perpetuity? Like sociologically, the US market won’t buy a new Tank LC over $20K?
Okay, yeah: "Why pay retail when the same watch is available pre-owned at a 35% discount with the depreciation already priced in?" Stupidity, as posited (semi-jokingly) in the next graf? Well, maybe. But maybe just 'cause buyers of new watches like the assurance that they're new, straight off the factory (oh, sorry, atelier) floor, warranted by the maker, and not subject to the perhaps brutal whims of their previous owner. That, and, also, old fart that I am, I like being able to look someone straight in the eye when I buy something pricey. Not straight onto a screen. (It's one thing to buy a lawn chair from Amazon. A fine watch ain't no lawn chair.)
And that, maybe, is also part of why Rolex's CPO program is doing so well. You march into the Rolex AD, all hot and ready to trot out with a brand-new Sub on your wrist, only to find out that...you have no more chance of that than you have of spending a night in bed with your favorite movie star. Oh my gawd, the disappointment! The anguish!
BUT...wait, what's that? Holy crap, could it be? Yes, it could! Just a few feet outside of the room with the crushing emptiness of its "display only" vitrines, you notice a whole showcase full of gleaming Rolex watches, utterly indistinguishable from brand new ones, refurbished and warranted by...yes! Rolex itself! And, oh my dear sweet God in Heaven, there's a Sub in there! And, okay, so it's a few thou more than you were planning to pay, but hey, you were going to fork over quite a few thousands anyway, so what's another few thou if it lets you walk out into the sunshine that very day with the Sub of your dreams sparkling on your wrist?
you can, if you wish, get the full “luxury boutique” experience for pre-owned watches of other brands too. in larger cities anyway (ny, boston, philly etc.). some of these pre-owned stores are fancier than many rolex ad stores, and there will be no discomfort or worry buying a patek or lange from them at 35% off. they stand by their inventory, and will ship it for factory service if needed at their own expense.
Seriously? I had no idea. That does change the equation, I must say. The one time I bought a used watch--a gorgeous Arnold & Son 8-Day--was from an AD I knew, from whom I had bought several new watches. And, like the dealers you mention, when I noticed that when the watch was wound the second hand was not moving, they had it repaired by Arnold & Son, at their expense. AFTER we had agreed on a price, which they did not change. But this was primarily an AD for new watches, and their used selection was not very big. I just got lucky that day.
it’s not luck, it’s the norm. otherwise, no one would buy from them. there are multiple pre-owned dealers in this country (that i know of) who generate nine figures in annual sales.
there is nothing like buying a new watch of course, but the savings are too big to ignore when it comes to haute horlogerie. unless you’re working towards a prized allocation, buying new is not really worth it. and it keeps the brands on their toes when it comes to pricing.
Offering an anecdote of n=1, years ago my wife and I were at a watch and jewelry store and as we looked at the Cartier watches she said "If we ever got a Cartier, we should probably get it from an AD because the secondary has for Cartier is notorious for the large number of counterfeit watches."
The clones have only gotten better since then, and it must be that some clones slip through the watchful eyes of the secondary sellers.
-6% for the 1908 is unreal! that makes it objectively the most desirable mainstream dress-watch line, even over patek, vacheron and lange, and only eclipsed by journe and low-volume indies.
clears the way for complications in the 1908 line to take over a segment of the market they’ve never dominated before. that is likely where a lot of the additional capacity from their new factories will be directed.
And where the cool calendar complication patents we saw a while ago might end up... that would be interesting indeed. It's one thing to try and compete with 'sports' watches... but if Rolex comes for the others' so-called bread and butter... we will need popcorn.
even the the discontinued cellini models (time-only, date, dual-time and moonphase) from a few years ago, that everyone made fun of, have held their values remarkably well. better than all dress pateks 😂 and those were fairly thick watches with solid casebacks. imagine a sub-11mm calendar watch, it’ll be game over, people like me will buy it no matter what.
[Old man shakes fist at clouds DOT gif.]
On value retention:
Patek Philippe Aquanaut +90.1%
Patek Philippe Nautilus +74.0%
Patek Philippe Cubitus +62.7%
Patek Philippe Calatrava -34.0%
Patek Philippe Complications -34.5%
Every quarter during which these results are realized, the ghosts of James Packard and Henry Graves kill one thousand puppies and kittens.
[Curmudgeon returns to his spot on the couch.]
I’m out of my finance depth here but I wonder two things, 1) if a narrow K can explain new and preowned both rising, ie some people still can’t afford new but they’re still buying watches; 2) is there a magic number where certain references plateau in perpetuity? Like sociologically, the US market won’t buy a new Tank LC over $20K?