Predictably Irrational (#2/3): A Watch Collector's Guide to Decision-Making

Part 2: Understanding Acquisition and Ownership Psychology

In our first exploration of Dan Ariely’s research, we examined how watch collectors make value judgements and how money transforms our collecting relationships. As we continue this journey through the psychology of collecting, Part 2 delves into perhaps the most emotionally charged aspects of our hobby: the acquisition and ownership of watches.

Why do we sometimes make vastly different purchasing decisions when caught up in ‘acquisition fever’ compared to our calm, rational moments? How does ownership transform our perception of value in a watch? And why do we struggle to let go of pieces we never wear? Through Ariely’s research, we will analyse the psychological mechanisms behind these common collecting behaviours.

Estimated reading time: ~13 minutes

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Influence of Arousal

Here, Ariely’s research gets a little spicy. After failing to get permission from MIT, he conducted an experiment at Berkeley instead, examining how arousal affects decision-making. Students answered a series of questions about their preferences and likely behaviours. Then they answered the same questions while in a state of (sexual) arousal.

Take a look at these responses:

• Could you enjoy having sex with someone you hated?

  • Unaroused: 53%

  • Aroused: 77%

• Would you slip someone a drug to increase chances of sex?

  • Unaroused: 5%

  • Aroused: 26%

• Would you always use protection even if it risked losing the moment?

  • Unaroused: 86%

  • Aroused: 60%

The takeaway here is we dramatically underestimate how different our decision-making becomes in “hot” emotional states. What seems unthinkable in a calm state, becomes surprisingly ‘more acceptable’ when aroused.

“Don’t promise when you’re happy, Don’t reply when you’re angry, and don’t decide when you’re sad.”

―Ziad K. Abdelnour, Economic Warfare: Secrets of Wealth Creation in the Age of Welfare Politics

On watches…

While watch collecting might seem far removed from these arousal experiments, the principle applies perfectly to what we could call “acquisition fever.” Think about how your decision-making changes when you’re in the heat of a watch hunt!

That moment when a rare reference (which you might have been seeking for years) appears on some obscure dealer’s Instagram page, priced higher than you’d normally consider but somehow seeming “reasonable” in your state of excitement. The rushed wire transfer to secure a piece before someone else grabs it. The hasty “I’ll take it” message to an AD offering you an allocation you weren’t sure you wanted.

Just as Ariely suggests pre-commitment strategies for aroused states, watch collectors need to prepare their own “cold state” rules such as:

• Never buy without a 24-48 hour cooling off period

• Set hard price limits before entering auctions

• Have a trusted collector friend to be your “voice of reason” for major purchases

In the end, your excited collecting brain and your rational collecting brain are, essentially, different people. Make the rules when you’re thinking clearly, not when you’re already experiencing acquisition fever.