SDC Weekly 40; Watch auctions; Daylight Saving
900 missing watches, Hidden emoji game, Screen time, Friendship, Pasta, Astrology, Infinite Staircase, and Personality Types.
Who or what is Fleming? How do you access the hidden game in your Instagram DMs? How did DST start? Did watch auctions perform well in 2023?
Hello 👋 and welcome back to the SDC Weekly. Today, you’ll find answers to the questions posed above, and you’ll find the older editions of SDC Weekly here.
The Fleming Series 11 was launched on Monday, and before we go any further, let’s address the elephant in the room: There are no paid promotions on SDC. Ever.
The founder of this brand, Thomas, and I have been in contact via Instagram since 2018, and since 2022, have also been part of a WhatsApp group with a few other collectors, including James, who later joined Thomas to become the COO at Fleming.
Thomas, and later James, have been sharing their journey with us in the group for what feels like a really long time… We have had long discussions about it in our group, from the angle of the lug drop, to the way it attaches to the case, the dial layout, the crown size, the case size, the shape of the indices and the use of tantalum… None of this is random or off the shelf, and I’d bet Thomas can write an entire novel about the rationale behind each decision.
I am providing this context to explain why I am sharing their release here, when I rarely cover other new watch releases, unless there is some surrounding controversy; It is down to my friendship with Thomas and James, and how it felt like they brought me and the others in the group along for the journey leading up to launch day. I know how hard they have worked to get to this point, and given I happen to write a watch focused newsletter, the only appropriate thing for me to do is support my friends’ watch launch.
I have yet to try it on, because when I met the lads in Geneva last year, their prototype wasn’t ready, and we haven’t met again since then2. I’m not sharing this to opine on the merits of the watch… you can do that for yourself. I am simply excited to see my friends finally launch their watch, and wish them all the best in their new venture.
Moving on…
I missed it last week, but @livingtheanchorlife posted this video on Instagram, in which he explains the CTO, COO and another EVP have been laid off from Hodinkee, along with 10 other staff. As of now, they’re still listed on the site as employees. Not sure what to make of this, other than, who is left there?!
Another useful release last week, was this: Auction Results Database by Subdial. They have catalogued over 63,000 auction results, and I look forward to seeing them improve it with search filters and currency conversion. For a Beta-launch offering, I have to say it is rather useful. I shared a link in the WhatsApp group, and a collector mentioned another platform, EveryWatch; They have a larger database, but it isn’t free to access. Of course, WatchCharts also has auction results, but they are baked into the listings on their analytics platform - so if they don’t have specific analytics on a watch you’re looking for, then you won’t see any auction results for that watch. On balance, it seems Subdial’s free database fills a gap in the market.
Remember that Roger Smith closed auction I mentioned in a previous edition? Well, Roger claims it sold for more than double the £297,500 reserve price. Of course, he can say whatever he wants, because nobody will ever know. Brilliant work Rog!
Lastly, Patek is allegedly releasing a tonneau shaped sports watch this year, dubbed the Cubitus. This might be complete nonsense, but here’s more about the trademark and a forum post with some additional information which, for now, seems about as credible as a crackhead asking for lunch money.
Alright, this preamble seems to get longer each week… Let’s dig in.
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📉 Watch Auctions, again!
Watch auction sales are down year-on-year, which is perhaps unsurprising if you read SDCweekly.
Here’s a chart from
’s article:
“The 2023 tally, which tracks sales from auction houses including Antiquorum, Bonhams, Christie’s, Phillips, Poly Auction and Sotheby’s, shows average lot prices fell 3% to 48,600 francs last year, the Mercury Project said.”
Andy Hoffman
The Mercury Project which is referenced in the article, published a report called “Hammertrack” which covers watch auctions in 2023. The report provides a comprehensive breakdown of the downturn experienced in watch auctions last year, following a record-breaking year in 2022. The prices mentioned all include the buyer’s premium paid to the auction houses, and were converted to CHF by the author based on the currency exchange rate in the month of the auction.
Here are a few takeaways from the report:
Overview / General:
The global watch auctions from major houses such as Antiquorum, Bonhams, Christie’s, Phillips, Polyauction, and Sotheby’s reached a total value of 610 million CHF in 2023, marking a 13% decrease from the record high of 2022.
Sales were down across the top auction locations: Geneva, Hong Kong, and New York.
In 2023, despite the downturn, the average price per lot sold hovered around CHF 48,600, only a 3% decrease compared to 2022. This figure is notably higher than in previous years, such as 2019 when the average price was CHF 32,000. It suggests that despite the challenges, the market retained a certain level of value.
Market Dynamics:
Despite a better last quarter (+8%), the overall trend was downwards, indicating a slowdown that began in late 2022.
The decline was partially mitigated to 10% when adjusted for constant exchange rates due to the Swiss franc’s appreciation.3
The slowdown was attributed to economic and geopolitical concerns, fading enthusiasm among collectors, and a shrinking supply of high-quality watches.
Jewelery sales outpaced watch sales, showing a 20% increase to 1.2 billion CHF in 2023.
Segment Analysis:
“Millionaire lots” saw a 13% decline in sales, with a significant drop in the six-figure lot segment (22% decline).
Patek Philippe, Rolex, F.P. Journe, and Richard Mille sustained or increased their shares in the declining segment, while Audemars Piguet faced a decline.
The lower segment (lots priced below CHF 100,000) experienced a more modest 6% fall in sales.
Despite the downturn, the high-end segment (over CHF 1 million) showed resilience, recording slightly positive growth.
Brand Performance:
Patek Philippe and Rolex remained dominant, but independent brands like F.P. Journe, Richard Mille, Philippe Dufour, Roger Smith, and Voutilainen saw exceptional growth in 2023.
Patek Philippe and Rolex faced challenges from independent brands, especially in the over CHF 100,000 segment.
A noteworthy trend, which came up in the Morgan Stanley report as well, was the “premiumisation” observed in the market. Despite the decline in overall sales, certain segments, especially those catering to high-end collectors, sustained their prices well. For instance, the segment of lots priced between CHF 100,000 and CHF 1 million, which constituted a significant portion of the market, saw a decline of 22%. However, the segment of lots priced above CHF 1 million recorded slightly positive growth (+2%). This seems to indicate sustained interest in rare and unique pieces among affluent collectors.
New World Records:
Despite the downturn, 2023 saw the establishment of several new world records in watch auctions, including online-only auctions:
The highest price ever paid for a timepiece in an online-only auction: Patek Philippe Sky Moon Tourbillon (CHF 5.3 million).
The most expensive British timepiece ever sold: Roger Smith pocket watch (CHF 4.4 million).
The most valuable Roger Smith wristwatch ever sold at auction (CHF 2,177 million), double-signed with George Daniels.
World record for a gem-set Rolex Daytona, a Rolex Milgauss (CHF 2.24 million)
World record for a Rolex Paul Newman John Player Special (CHF 2.23 million)
World Record for the Patek Philippe Ref. 3700/1 in Platinum (CHF 2.5 million).
World Record for any Casio watch: the Casio G-Shock 40th Anniversary Dream Project No. 2 solar-powered watch (CHF 346’015 / $400’050)
Auction House Performance:
Christie’s emerged as the new leader, with its best-ever year in 2023, outpacing Phillips, which had been the leader for the past three years.
Top 3 market share for 2023 was 35% Christie’s, 32% Phillips, and 24% Sotheby’s.
In an overall context of declining sales, all competitors reported lower results: Phillips, down 12% to CHF 192.1 million, Sotheby’s, down 16% to CHF 143 million, Antiquorum, down 56% to CHF 35.6 million and Polyauction, down 69% to CHF 1.6 million. Bonhams did manage to do a little better with only a slight decrease of 3%, to CHF 24.0 million.
That said, Phillips still had a higher average price per lot sold (around CHF 125,700), likely due to their two best events; Geneva Watch Auction: XVII and XVIII.
Phillips experienced a 12% decline in sales, while Sotheby’s, Antiquorum, and Poly Auction also reported lower results.
No idea why they don’t include LoupeThis, but perhaps they should. Poly Auction is included, and they only sold 100 lots over 3 events in Hong Kong (CHF 1.6m in total value). LoupeThis did about CHF 18m and nearly 800 lots in 2023. Perhaps Eric Ku should reach out and nudge him 👀!
Geography:
Geneva maintained its position as the top city for watch and jewelery auctions, followed by Hong Kong and New York.
Still, all cities experienced declines in sales, with Geneva being the most resilient.
Top Lots:
Patek Philippe dominated the top millionaire lots, with five pieces in the top 10. Here’s the list:
🌅 Daylight Saving Time
Those of us in the U.K. will be adjusting our clocks soon, and our friends across the pond just did so this past weekend. It felt like a good opportunity to share some relevant trivia. Daylight Saving Time (DST), also referred to as daylight savings time, daylight time (United States, Canada, and Australia), or summer time (United Kingdom, European Union, and others) is a practice which serves to extend daylight hours into the evening during the warmer months of the year.
In the U.K., the clocks go forward 1 hour on the last Sunday in March, and back 1 hour on the last Sunday in October - changes take place at 1am. In the U.S., this happens on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November- changes take place at 2am. Here’s a full list of Daylight Saving Time by country.
DST is not usually observed near the Equator, where sunrise and sunset times do not vary enough to justify it; conversely, it is often not observed in places at high latitudes where a one-hour clock shift would provide little benefit because of the wide variations in sunrise and sunset times. - Wikipedia
The origins of DST are often attributed to Benjamin Franklin, who first proposed the idea in 1784 as a way to save on candles by making better use of daylight. Obviously, Franklin’s proposal was more of a joke than a serious policy suggestion.
The modern implementation of DST can be traced back to an idea proposed by George Hudson, a New Zealand entomologist, in 1895. Hudson’s motivation for advocating DST was rooted in his personal interests, particularly his desire to have more daylight hours after work to pursue his insect-collecting hobby4. He presented his idea to the Wellington Philosophical Society, suggesting a 2 hour time shift forward in October and a 2 hour time shift backward in March.
While Hudson’s proposal gained some attention, it initially didn’t receive widespread adoption. It wasn’t until World War I that the concept of DST gained traction, mainly as a means to conserve energy. Germany was the first country to implement DST during the war, followed by other nations.
Although George Hudson’s specific proposal may not have been directly implemented, his advocacy for extending daylight hours and the concept of adjusting clocks to make better use of daylight played a significant role in the eventual adoption of DST in other parts of the world. His contribution is recognised in the history of DST, alongside other proponents such as William Willett and Benjamin Franklin.
Another early proponent of DST was William Willett, a British builder, who advocated for advancing the clocks during the summer months to make better use of daylight. Willett’s proposal was eventually adopted by Germany during World War I as a way to conserve energy, and other countries soon followed suit.
The adoption of DST has evolved over time and varies from country to country. In the United States, DST was formally established during World War I and again during World War II as a way to save energy and resources. However, its usage has been inconsistent throughout history, with periods of observation and abandonment.
There is a commonly held belief that farmers advocated for DST but this is apparently a myth! Turns out, farmers have historically been among the most vocal opponents of DST. Farmers often operate on a schedule dictated by the sun, not by a clock. DST actually disrupts their routines, making it more challenging to coordinate activities such as milking cows, planting crops, and harvesting. In particular, dairy cows are sensitive to changes in their routine. Altering the time for milking and feeding often leads to stress and decreased productivity. So, while the perception that farmers supported DST may have come from the notion that it provided them with more daylight hours to work in the fields… the reality is quite the opposite!
In modern times, the relevance of DST is often debated. I, for one, despise it… and 75% of Americans prefer sticking to one time. Proponents argue that DST reduces energy consumption by reducing the need for artificial lighting in the evenings, promotes outdoor activities, and boosts the economy through increased retail spending and tourism. Additionally, proponents claim that DST improves public safety by reducing traffic accidents and crime rates during the extended daylight hours.
However, there are also disadvantages associated with DST. Critics argue that the time changes disrupt sleep patterns and can lead to negative health effects, such as increased risk of heart attacks and strokes; more on this later. Additionally, the implementation of DST can cause confusion and inconvenience, particularly in regions where it is not universally observed or where time zones overlap.
Dr. Karin Johnson is a professor of neurology and sleep medicine specialist, as well as a co-chair of the nonprofit Coalition for Permanent Standard Time, which is supported by a number of sleep medicine and research organisations.
“Essentially, standard time is what keeps us sane, despite the short days of winter. Daylight savings doesn't ‘save’ any daylight in the spring and summer, but instead pushes sunrises and sunsets to an hour later, and further away from our natural circadian rhythms.”
Dr. Karin Johnson
Other sleep experts have come out against switching to DST too. From a health perspective, studies suggest this time change leads to higher rates of cancer, fatal car accidents, mood disorders, and worse academic and running performance. The change itself can also be harmful from a more practical perspective. Research suggests that losing an hour of sleep in March contributes to a surge of heart attacks, strokes and car accidents.
According to Dr. Johnson, teenagers, night owls, other people with early work start times, as well as those those who live on the western edge of time zones are the most negatively affected by DST.
In conclusion, the debate over the relevance or efficacy of DST is pretty endless… Some, like Dr. Johnson, advocate for its abolition, while others argue for its continued use with slight adjustments to address its drawbacks. Ultimately, the decision to observe DST remains a matter of policy, which is controlled by imbeciles… so I won’t hold my breath.
Still, I didn’t want this to be an entirely pointless read, so here’s how to avoid the hangover of sleep loss when the clocks change for summer - per sleep experts’ recommendations:
Gradually adjust bedtimes and daily activities (e.g., mealtimes, exercise routines) to 15-20 minutes earlier* each day, starting 3-4 nights before the clocks are scheduled to change. This is critical if you have kids or pets.
Set your clocks 1 hour ahead* on Saturday night, but still get to bed at your usual bedtime.
Go outside as soon as you wake up to help with your cortisol levels and adjust your internal clock.
If you care about sleep, here’s Andrew Huberman’s Sleep Toolkit.
*Perhaps stating the obvious, but simply reverse this when the clocks go back ahead of winter - so instead of earlier, later and instead of ahead, behind.
I definitely learned a thing or two by writing this section, and hope you did too!
📌 Links of interest
🦹♀️ 900 luxury watches worth almost $13 million are missing in Japan. Same story, different link.
🏅 The Rise of the Sports Watch - How Utility Became the New Normal.
🕵️♀️ Police are seeking the owner of a 1940s Rolex military pocket watch.
🌟 What's inside this crater in Madagascar? This is a 24-minute video about a mysterious village. In the digital age, stories like this are increasingly rare. Wow.
📧 Letter to a young artist, by Stephen Shore. (Cheers Aaron!)
🚗 How Apple Sank About $1 Billion a Year Into a Car It Never Built.
😐 How to find the hidden emoji game in your Instagram DMs.
🥊 Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson set for July 20 on Netflix - money spinning affair!
🎥 A fascinating look into the advancement of large-sensor cameras used in Dune 2. (Cheers Aaron, again!)
🎪 Eight Friends Built a Secret Apartment in a Mall and Hid There Undetected for Years. (Wtf?!)
🤡 Confucius Says “lol, lmao” - On the very basics of governance.
🧒 All about screen time - it reduces how many adult words young children hear, limits their own vocalisations and hinders their engagement in meaningful interactions.
🍝 You eat pasta, and you love pasta. But have you ever wondered just how your favorite pasta shapes came to be?
🏃♀️ Although men, on average, outpace women in running, the gap in speed narrows as the distance increases. In fact, for distances over 195 miles, women are 0.5% faster, a statistic driven by a tiny number of highly trained female ultra-marathoners.
🧠 Researchers in South Korea use sound to influence the formation of connections between neurons.
⭐ Astrology nut? Here’s some evidence astrology often appeals to people who lack critical thinking skills and want to feel special. If that’s not it, it might help others manage uncertainty. Religion used to play that role for more people, and Marx called it “the opiate of the masses.” The difference is religion can’t be falsified, but astrology has been. Research suggests that people who believe in astrology are also more likely to hold strong beliefs about popular conspiracy theories (e.g. flat-earthers).
👩🚀 Want to Be An Astronaut? NASA Opens a Rare Job Posting.
🎯 The Ultimate Personality Test - In just 12 minutes, find out which of our 16 personality types you match best.
Apparently I am in the “CEO” personality cluster. And, it took less than 12 minutes too. Let me know how you get on!
End note
“The quality of our relationships determines the quality of our lives.”
Esther Perel
On that note, I shared a new post on Monday. If you missed it, here it is:
I saw a recent Sketchplanations post about mathematician Roger Penrose’s 1950s “Infinite Staircase.” The illusion uses multiple, conflicting lines of perspective to trick your eye into seeing stairs continually rise. Here’s a neat explainer video if you’re interested (5 mins).
It then occurred to me how this is an amusing analogy for watch collecting. We twist our own perspectives to fit whatever story we’re telling ourselves to justify or rationalise the next purchase… but fundamentally, we aren’t really going up or down. We’re just going around, each time with what we tell ourselves is a better watch, perhaps worth more, or even rarer than the previous one, and maybe more finely finished… despite all of these ‘benefits’ - it’s only just… stuff. As we gain more experience, and get hands-on with more and more watches, a serious risk emerges.
For the most part, collectors (and certainly you as a reader of this post) are intelligent people. Intelligent collectors tend to have discerning taste, and often hold informed opinions about watches they buy, or don’t buy, as well as an informed view on the watch market. The risk for people like this, is when their intelligence becomes a hindrance. How does that work?
First, there is the problem of overconfidence. Highly intelligent individuals can be prone to overconfidence as a result of their innate ability to (usually) make sense of complicated things… and their understanding of the world around them, makes them more able to ‘decipher’ riddles and explain their findings. This overconfidence can, in some instances, lead to poor decision-making. This is especially true in the world of watch collecting where human emotions and unpredictable forces play major roles in the outcomes we observe.
If you ask a random guy at a British Watchmakers’ event “Is a Journe TN tourbillon underpriced at £250k” they are likely to say “I have no idea” and walk away. On the other hand, if you ask a ‘knowledgeable collector’ they may be inclined to give you a nuanced explanation, perhaps drawing on their knowledge of other watch prices, and their understanding of supply and demand, to perhaps provide some meaningful insight. Yet, they actually have no idea, and ought to preface their musings with “I have no idea, but…” - the point being, humility is a useful medicine for overconfidence. The more intelligent you are, the more medicine you require.
Another problem with intelligent people can be the lack of intellectual humility. Smart people may struggle to listen to, or value insights from, those who have different backgrounds to the norm, or who are not really 'qualified’ to weigh in on the subject. This sort of intellectual elitism can easily cause us to miss valuable perspectives and ideas from sources we do not expect to have value at all.
I accidentally got a reminder of this when I was chatting to my plumber, of all people. He’s an extremely intelligent guy, and we’ve had engaging conversations about many subjects, mostly because we get along, and share an innate intellectual curiosity5. We were discussing watches, and in particular the ease of working with and polishing different types of metals, as well as the tooling required to do various jobs. Without asking, he started describing which watches would be easiest to work with, and what tools would be required… and I had no idea whether any of this was true, but when I later asked actual experts in the watch industry, it turned out my plumber was right!
Finally, there is the (not so) small matter of … reputation. As soon as intelligent individuals become known for their expertise in a some field, they can sometimes resist adapting to changes in this field. Such resistance can be driven by a desire to maintain their intellectual reputation, or by fear of admitting that their previous ideas or methods have become outdated, or simply by fear of admitting they don’t know something! Of course, not every expert is like this, but it also depends on the audience they’re facing and the timing of the exchange.
If you take a guy like Ben Clymer, dubbed the high priest of horology, it is pretty unlikely you will ask him any question about watches where he will simply say “I don’t know” - and in his case, this could range from saying he knows someone who can provide an answer, or perhaps having a detailed answer in his head already. That said, because of his status in this game, what he says on record is difficult to walk back, and people will tend to quote him on major topics because his words have more weight in the world of watches. So imagine how difficult it must be for someone like Ben to change his mind? I don’t know the guy; he may change his mind easily, and fair play to him if that is the case. My point, however, is simple: don’t build a reputation which shackles your ability to change your mind, and when dealing with experts in any field, test their responses before relying on them.
Last week I shared this video on non-verbal cues, and in the video the speaker told a story about some expert he met at a conference. He stayed after the keynote to ask some questions, and believing this ‘expert’ was ‘full of it’ he asked them whether they had reviewed a paper by <some made up name> about the topic this expert was there to speak publicly about. The expert said they had seen the paper and then made some remarks about enjoying it, even though this paper didn’t exist!
In summary, I suppose what I am saying can be summarised as follows: Intelligence or expertise can be detrimental when it isn’t tempered with humility, openness to new ideas, and a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances.
Until next time,
F
🔮Bonus link: The Psychology of Social Status and Class
Rob Henderson shared an update on Sunday, in which he mentioned some of the most interesting tidbits from this conversation… I picked out a couple of his points:
People who have high levels of wealth and status also express the strongest desire for wealth and status.
People who report the highest levels of earnings, education, and occupational prestige are also the most likely to agree with statements such as “It would please me to be in a position of power over others.”
I didn’t mention this in the discussion, but this is arguably an indicator of a relatively fair society—the people who most strongly crave status are also the most likely to attain it.
Although many people claim that their sexuality is fundamental to who they are, very few people will say that their actual sexual past is fundamental to who they are.
The archetypal pathological mother is overbearing, overinvolved, and overprotective. In contrast, the archetypal pathological father is simply absent. Not tyrannical. Not abusive. Not violent. Just not there
You can read my New York Times op-ed about Jordan Peterson here (ungated here)
Believe it or not, that “❤️ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you enjoyed this post, please let others know. Thanks for reading!
In terms of the watch itself, it is 38.5mm wide, 9mm thick (1mm is the dome crystal), 46.5mm lug-to-lug and comes in rose gold, platinum and tantalum. They will make up to 10 pieces per month, and they cost around 50k CHF. The movement was developed by Jean-François Mojon and his team at Chronode, and the hand-decorated dials by Comblémine, owned by Kari Voutilainen. Also includes 1 year of free insurance, which was something we discussed A LOT in the group, prior to the launch!
The prices are as follows: CHF 45,500 for the tantalum model; CHF 48,500 for the rose gold; and CHF 51,500 for the platinum. Production of 5-10 per month, first deliveries planned for April. Order directly with the brand, 25% deposit to secure the watch, and the remaining balance due pre-delivery.
Before you ask: no, I did not order one. I’m not looking for another dress watch.
This is especially due to the strong appreciation of the Swiss franc against major currencies like the Hong Kong dollar, US dollar, and Euro. At constant exchange rates, the decline in sales reduced by 3% to 10% - this highlights the influence of currency valuation on market performance … about ~23% in this case… and how susceptible it is to currency fluctuations!
Fvcking nerd. Love it.
Side story - this legend of a plumber, once talked me through repairing my own boiler via FaceTime, over the weekend, as he was on holiday and was unable to attend to my emergency. He saved me about £1500, and I had it fixed within an hour instead of waiting 24 hours for another plumber!
The Madagascar video is really unbelievable in the context of how most of us live a modern life. I really enjoyed it. I really do hate DST. Thanks again for this!
Thorough and comprehensive as always. A true must read. Bravo!