SDC Weekly 58; The Einstellung Effect; Tom Wolfe Returns
New Rolex Patents, Lange and Moser CEOs speak, LV Misguided, Biver CEO, Deloitte India Spotlight, Atelier de Chronométrie + Lang & Heyne +Urban Jürgensen Deep Dives, Puzzle Robots and more!
🚨 Welcome to another edition of SDC Weekly. Estimated reading time: ~45 mins (excl. links!)
Fair warning: This week’s edition is chock-full. You’d laugh if you knew how these editions come together; Divine comedy best describes it.
Anyway, the subtitle covers the key bits, so I won’t bore you with more blurb.
If you’re new here, welcome! Catch up on the older editions of SDC Weekly here.
Small stuff
Lange CEO Interview
Fellow saffer1 Justin Hast recently sat down with Lange’s CEO to talk shop.
Wilhelm Schmid offered what seemed to be a candid look into the Lange’s strategy and philosophy. A few general takeaways:
A. Lange & Söhne’s approach to new releases is supposedly deliberate and measured. They introduced one watch last year and plan to release two this year. Schmid explained this strategy is not due to a lack of ideas, but rather a result of their manufacturing constraints and commitment to quality. Kinda have to take his word for it here, but after you read the rest of this, you might agree they should stick to one per year. Maybe even skip next year altogether.
Each new watch typically comes with a new movement, which he says requires extensive training for watchmakers. This process temporarily reduces efficiency and output, necessitating a careful balance in their product release schedule. This issue with a shortage of watchmakers comes up a lot. Plus, this will only get worse over time, right?
The Lange 1 was highlighted as an example of design consistency. Schmid proudly noted that it has remained largely unchanged for 30 years, with only a movement update in 2015 to incorporate in-house manufacturing advances.
Servicing Philosophy
This is where Schmid started spewing more bullshit than Trump at a presidential debate; but we will come to that in a second. First, a few general points:
Lange use the same watchmakers for servicing as for production - which results in the brand needing to ‘balance’ the workload across both areas of the business (new assembly / servicing).
For case repair: Lange use laser welding to add material to a case before polishing off the excess material to finish.
Schmid advised customers to service their watches every 6-8 years, depending on the climate and frequency of wear. He emphasised that regular servicing is less expensive than repairing a watch that has come to a complete stop. He would, wouldn’t he? Given how they treat service like a major stream, I’m not surprised he squeezed that into such a short interview 😂
Then Schmid explained why services take so long - but aside from the shortage of watchmakers noted above, he explained how global logistics is a problem!? He generalised, noting that shipping a watch from the USA to their workshop in Germany can take 3 weeks each way. In his world, getting a luxury watch serviced involves a minimum of 6 weeks for shipping. People often say I’m unfair to Wilhelm - on what planet does a luxury brand CEO talk about shipping small objects in “weeks” anyway? 6 weeks is how long it takes to ship containers - by fvcking sea freight - from China to South Africa!
Richemont is a global luxury conglomerate, and whilst regular people like you and I can get things sent around the world in a few days, they can’t do the same?
What Class A drugs does this man ingest? I’d love to try some.
Looking Ahead
Schmid was obviously tight-lipped about specific future releases, but hinted at a special Lange 1 coming out on October 24th - which is the brand’s traditional launch date outside of Watches & Wonders. 2024 marks the 30-year anniversary for the Lange 1, so no prizes for guessing what’s coming.
LV Barking Up the Wrong Tree
Jean Arnault seems like a savvy watch nerd; He also happens to have a fully loaded war chest and a seemingly dogged determination to turn Louis Vuitton’s watches into a ‘serious’ high-end consideration for seasoned watch enthusiasts. This isn’t news, and I’ve written about it before, starting with the Akrivia collaboration back in October of 2023 - but I think he’s going about it all wrong.
I raise this again after hearing about a handful of recent events around the world, where LV has been hosting collectors with a very high staff-to-guest ratio. They seem to have adopted this strategy to improve their standing in the enthusiast community even further, by directly engaging with end users in the luxury watch market. LV representatives seem to actively seek feedback from attendees on the watches, and a couple of attendees conveyed a sense that LV is trying hard to explain and convince watch enthusiasts about the merits of buying their watches.
The truth remains: the quality and value proposition of LV watches is a farce, and to borrow the words of a fellow enthusiast, they seem to think they can brute force their way onto the list of ‘credible’ brands in high-end watchmaking.
Anyway, “What is the alternative?” I hear you say… Making an objectively epic watch might be a good start?
The situation hasn’t changed since I discussed it last time. LV is attempting to move from being a fashion brand to a serious watchmaking brand. In doing this, they have paid for positive feedback from every relevant media outlet on the planet. The next move, is to buy their way into collector circles, and shove their watches down the throat of every collector who enjoys being wined and dined by LV - make no mistake, that list is pretty long, and these people are more fickle than a hungry, drug-addicted hooker.
Let’s not forget, the entire LVMH corporation is accustomed to high profit margins. Why would LV’s watch department be any different? To quote a fellow critic:
These new LV watches and the calibres they use are all value-engineered to be easy to produce at large scale and provide insane returns. But masquerade as more than they are, with CNC patterns and gold rotor to distract from the etachron regulator and poor anglage etc.
That’s a pretty good summary of the situation.
There is no doubting LVMH’s marketing prowess and business acumen, but if they are serious about creating a ‘proper’ watchmaking house, they need to stop blowing money on infiltrating the community with high end fashion watches, and spend that cash on R&D to develop a truly astounding value proposition.
Many won’t remember the days when F.P. Journe first developed the Chronomètre Bleu (CB) - his goal was for it to be a phenomenal value proposition (for an entry-level piece from the brand). Not kidding - that was his actual goal when making the piece.
The failure rate when creating the dial alone, was as high as 70% - the application of several layers of lacquer to the dial meant that only 30% of the final dials would pass QC and be used in a watch. Journe also used tantalum for the case, which is notoriously difficult to work with, and which requires specialised tools (because regular tools would be destroyed by the tantalum). He did all this ‘extra’ work, at a higher cost, because it ensured the final product would seem like incredibly good value to the buyer. The CB also contained the same exceptional movement as the Chronometre Souveraine, in solid gold. The whole package was offered for under US$20k at the time - that’s under US$30k in today’s money.
Meanwhile, we have LV: Short-sightedly pursuing profit over horological excellence, but wanting to receive plaudits regarding the latter. I think there is a better way for Jean Arnault to use his war chest, and that is to actually employ proper watchmakers like Luca Soprana or Stephen McDonnell to come up with something truly marvellous, to be sold under the LV name. Build a product roadmap, which charts the course for the next 10 years at least. Let the products speak for themselves. I’m not sure those two would agree to it, but I’m sure there are a few others who could do the trick too.
LV ought to come out with something so epic, so overwhelmingly brilliant in terms of a value proposition, that any watch enthusiast with a brain would queue up to buy one. Then, they’re off to races. Until then, you should place all LV watches directly in the bin, where they belong.
Jean, if you’re reading this, take my word for it: Choose excellence - instead of burning money on this absurd roadshow marketing strategy - I’d offer to help, but then I’d be accused of selling out, so I can’t 😂2.
Biver looks outside the family for new chief executive
Jean-Claude Biver’s watch brand has appointed James Marks as its new CEO, finally “answering the question that’s been rattling around the watch industry for over a year” - Or so they say, but I don’t recall anyone talking about it. Let’s be real - is this really the ‘game-changer’ Biver needs?
Marks comes from Phillips (Auction House), where he’s been Deputy Chairman of Watches and International Head of Phillips Perpetual. Sure, he’s set some world records for auction prices and has a background in investment banking… But does that translate to creating watches that will make seasoned collectors sit up and take notice?
The announcement hints at an “upcoming launch that will solidify the Maison’s vision and future plans.” Jean-Claude Biver seems confident, praising Marks’ “dynamic leadership and profound grasp of our vision.” But let’s not forget - vision doesn’t necessarily equate to success. The watch world is littered with brands that had grand visions but couldn’t deliver on the bench.
James Marks is essentially an outsider to the auction industry, and the traditional auction business wasn’t even his primary focus at Phillips. He’s a former trader and fund manager who transitioned from being a customer of Phillips to taking the helm of its London operation in late 2018 where he launched the retail space as a way of cross-selling between that, and the auction house.
Marks also happens to be the grandson of ex-Formula 1 mogul Bernie Ecclestone, and he essentially hit the jackpot when his fund wagered against prevailing sentiment during the Brexit referendum in 2016 and again on Trump’s rise to the presidency. After calling these and cashing in, he decided it was time to pursue his true passion in watches, and that’s when he joined Phillips. Bear in mind, even though he’s the new CEO with Biver, the article suggests he is going to keep a role at Phillips too - which really makes you wonder… Is this an elaborate way to embed Marks into the Biver brand to leverage his extensive network and do more cross-selling? Watch this space, I suppose!
Three New Rolex Patents
This recent Rolex patent is intriguing. The document is incredibly difficult to follow, but it appears to be a patent of a method for manufacturing a movement component, but specifically focused on creating decorative and/or functional features on small, precise components while maintaining their functionality. Essentially, they want to decorate parts while maintaining precision and functionality - and their proposed method is to introduce cavities on the surface, and then use etching and material deposition techniques to create visible patterns or indications.
The method involves etching the surface of the component to form at least one cavity then adding some sort of other material in to the cavity, which may involve creating deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) cavities (wtf?). There is also mention of using photolithography techniques with masks to create precise patterns.
The main takeaway for me is this patent essentially allows for intricate designs and markings on very small components - and the image above is supposedly an example of this. Seems amusing that we may one day see over a million ‘well finished’ Rolex watches produced a year.
This patent is more straightforward, and it is a dial design which is shown and described in the document. What’s interesting to note is how they reference regular websites in the patent document, from Kickstarter to Gear Patrol!
This final patent is particularly insane. The document describes a new method for manufacturing a mold which is used to create a component with complex shapes. Long story short, they talk about depositing a layer of photosensitive resin on a surface, then irradiating the photosensitive resin according to a predefined pattern. When they ‘develop’ the photosensitive resin (like a photograph) it will supposedly form a hollow, perfectly shaped surface which will serve as part of the mold for the component they want to make.
The patent document goes into detail about managing radiation, dealing with reflections, and optimising the process for improved precision in mold-making.
I was pretty amazed to read about the depths of innovation at Rolex - I now await some genius reader letting me know this is not revolutionary at all! 😂
Conversation with Edouard Meylan, CEO of H. Moser & Cie
Monochrome published this interview a couple of weeks ago, and there was a fair bit of trivia I’d bet many did not know. Here’s a list of key takeaways:
MELB Holding (“MeylanEdouardLeonoreBertrand”):
Founded in 2006 by Georges-Henri Meylan (former CEO of Audemars Piguet) and his three children
Georges-Henri Meylan is the Chairman
Active in three main areas: luxury (watchmaking), real estate, and tech investments
Tech investments focus on companies with strong technological potential, stemming from Georges-Henri's experience with a med-tech subsidiary at Audemars Piguet that produced pacemakers
H. Moser & Cie:
Main brand under MELB’s luxury division (Hautlence is another, see below)
Edouard Meylan (son of Georges-Henri) CEO since 2012
Grew by 50% in 2023 and 25% in Q1 2024
Employs around 100 people
Supposedly produces over 20 in-house movements since 2005 - I’ve disputed this before
Claims to manufacture ‘most’ components in-house, except for exterior parts - Again, debatable.
Aims for 200 million Swiss francs turnover within 3-4 years; Estimated current sales of 93 million Swiss francs (3,500 units) - supporting my thesis they plan to grow production, as I mentioned in recent SDCs.
Ranked 38th out of 50 largest Swiss watch brands
Market and customers:
Distribution: 30% USA, 35% Asia, 25% Europe, 10% Middle East and Africa
10% of sales through e-commerce and direct sales
H. Moser & Cie Houses in Hong Kong and New York
Bertrand Meylan (Edouard’s brother) manages sales and 75% of the markets
Partnerships and strategy:
Partnership with Renault’s Alpine F1 team - interesingly, claimed to have been initiated by Renault CEO Luca De Meo, a fan of H. Moser & Cie
This partnership has boosted the brand’s visibility and is influencing more edgy, less classic developments
Focusing on developing H. Moser & Cie and retail expansion
Open to acquiring a third brand if the opportunity arises
Hautlence:
Another watch brand under MELB, representing only 5% of their watchmaking business
Acquired by MELB in 2012 when it was facing difficulties
Name is an anagram of Neuchâtel - didn’t know that!
Recently integrated into H. Moser & Cie premises in Schaffhausen
Has reached break-even point, which is surprising!
Other MELB holdings:
Stake in Agenhor (movement design company in Geneva) - less than 50% was claimed.
Precision Engineering in Schaffhausen (escapement specialist) - Believed to have divested some or all of this, but unverified.
Future plans:
Potential major investments in 2028 - again, likely to facilitate production and revenue growth.
Considering development of C-H. Meylan brand (based on historical watchmaker Charles-Henri Meylan, born in 1842 in Sentier, Vallée de Joux)
Deloitte - Swiss Watch Industry Spotlight on India
In their recent report3, Deloitte provides a comprehensive overview of the Indian watch market and its potential for Swiss watchmakers. The report highlights India’s rapid economic growth, with a projected growth rate of over 6% in 2024 and 2025, significantly outpacing global averages. This economic boom is fostering an expanding middle class with increasing disposable income and a desire for aspirational products, which of course includes Swiss-made watches.
The report emphasises watches in India are not only seen as status symbols but also highly valued gifts during festive seasons and special occasions like weddings. Younger generations in particular, have developed a watch habit. The study shows Indian consumers are highly brand-conscious, with 64% considering brand image to be the most important factor when deciding to buy a luxury watch, compared to the global average where price-to-value ratio is considered most important.
Online shopping for watches is particularly prevalent in India, with 70% of Indian consumers purchasing watches online, either through multi-brand platforms or directly from brand websites. This high percentage reflects high internet usage, the growth of the younger population, and the convenience and availability of products. It also indicates the physical retail network for watches is not yet fully developed in India, and probably won’t need to be.
They also discuss the potential for the pre-owned watch market in India. Over 50% of surveyed consumers in India stated they are very likely or somewhat likely to purchase a pre-owned watch in the next 12 months, compared to 38% globally. The main motivations for buying pre-owned watches include lower prices, sustainability, and immediate availability.
The growth of India’s luxury market has led to an influx of watch firms into the Indian market, with several brands launching models specifically tailored to Indian tastes. Some brands have sought to enhance their brand appeal by appointing Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors. The report does note some hesitancy remains regarding the Indian business environment due to its complexity, which has affected the profitability of business ventures in the region.
A significant development highlighted in the report is the recent trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) signed between Switzerland (along with other EFTA countries) and India in March 2024. This agreement is expected to provide enhanced market access for Swiss watches by reducing customs duties over the next seven years. Currently, duties on watches in India stand at around 22-23%, but these will be reduced to zero within seven years, with the first reduction expected to become effective in the next three years.
“Thanks to the Swiss-India Free Trade Agreement, the opportunity for watch brands to invest in India is now or they risk missing out on a lucrative market due to favourable trade conditions, rising GDP, and increased consumer interest in the watch industry.”
Pascal O. Ravessaoud, Vice President, Fondation Haute Horlogerie (FHH
The trade agreement also includes provisions for improved protection of the ‘Swiss-made’ label and geographical indications. This is particularly important for Swiss watchmakers, as Indian consumers are willing to pay up to 100% more for a Swiss watch compared to watches that do not come from Switzerland.
The report concludes the combination of India’s economic growth, increasing consumer interest in luxury watches, and the new trade agreement presents a significant opportunity for Swiss watch brands to expand their presence in the Indian market. It also notes certain challenges which remain, including regulatory complexities and competition from large Indian conglomerates. The report suggests Swiss brands will need to have a long-term strategy and potentially collaborate with local partners to successfully navigate the Indian market; In other words, pay the facilitation tax!
Overall, the report suggests India is an increasingly attractive market for Swiss watchmakers, with pretty serious growth potential in the coming years - particularly if brands can effectively leverage the opportunities presented by the new trade agreement and changing consumer preferences.
I must add an afterthought, which was brought to my attention by an SDC Subscriber and friend - Deloitte seems hell-bent on pushing this ‘India angle’ and they seem to do it quite often. This might be because one of the Deloitte Partners leading this work, is Uday Mehta, and his job title is “Swiss-India Corridor Lead” - with that in mind, take all this with a pinch of salt. After all, Uday and his firm don’t produce these reports for fun - they are in it to generate advisory fees. 😛
To be fair to Uday, there may be some method to his madness. Just yesterday, the Fondation de la Haute Horlogerie (FHH) announced a strategic partnership with The Hour Markers in India. Not sure this is a huge data point, but given India is home to nearly 20% of the world’s people and is experiencing pretty decent GDP growth, it may be one to watch. Right now, however, the average annual salary is under £40k4, and whilst there are plenty of individually wealthy Indians, the total addressable market for luxury watch brands is probably not correlated with the population of the country, and these rich Indians probably already buy their watches elsewhere, and do not need local relationships. That’s not to say they wouldn’t appreciate having local options, but my point is there probably aren’t enough (yet) to justify market entry in a major way. Let me know if you disagree.
Urban Jürgensen and the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters
SJX recently published this deep-dive which explores the relationship between Urban Jürgensen, a prominent Danish watchmaker, and the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters (RDASL) in the early 19th century.
Background: Urban Jürgensen (UJ) was born in 1776 in Copenhagen and became one of the most important watchmaker in Denmark in the early 19th century.
Early Career:
UJ learned watchmaking from his father, then went on a Grand Tour of Europe to study with master watchmakers.
He returned to Copenhagen in 1801 and initially worked in the family business.
Contributions to Horology:
UJ wrote the first book on watchmaking in Danish in 1804.
He developed a pocket thermometer and received a gold medal for it.
UJ focused on precision timekeepers, including chronometers and astronomical pendulum clocks.
Relationship with RDASL:
In 1815, UJ became the first horologist to be invited as a member of the RDASL.
He published three significant articles in the RDASL’s journal: (1) On the isochronism of pendulums (1821) (2) Description of a new metal thermometer (1823) (3) On the influence of air on regulators of astronomical pendulum clocks and longitude watches (1828)
Innovations:
UJ proposed solutions for maintaining consistent pendulum arcs in clocks.
He developed an improved metal thermometer that could record minimum temperatures.
UJ conducted experiments on the effects of air pressure and density on chronometers.
Legacy:
UJ’s sons, Louis Urban and Jules, continued his work and became leading figures in watchmaking.
His approach to horology, combining craftsmanship with scientific inquiry, was unique in Denmark at the time.
The SJX article goes into even more detail, and has some great images too. Worth a read if you have the time and interest.
Atelier de Chronométrie
This week I happened to uncover too many interesting write-ups. This is another deep dive from A Collected Man, talking about Atelier de Chronométrie. It’s about a 15-minute reads, but here are the highlights.
The players, Santiago Martínez and Montse Gimeno, are former vintage watch dealers turned makers, and are based in Barcelona. They create vintage-inspired watches, handcrafted, and highly customisable.
Founded in 2016, they have a core team of just 3 people, but collaborate with many other artisans. Their initial movement was a refurbished Omega 266, but their current movement is an “in-house M284” which they developed with the help of Luca Soprana.
“A lot of people participate in the process. The core team is small, and we are hoping to expand and find new watchmakers, but there are other very close collaborators that work with us more or less everyday, so in reality it’s more than just three people.”
Montse Gimeno
I guess the overarching takeaway was that they’re not just slapping vintage designs on modern movements. These folks are going full artisanal; We’re talking hand-drawn sketches for each design, cases and bracelets made by a father-son duo, enamelled dials crafted by local artists, and movements refurbished and improved in-house.
Customisation is the USP. Each watch is described as a collaboration between maker and buyer. Want a galvanic black gilt dial? Done. Fancy a rotating enamel dial showing the Milky Way? They’ve apparently got you covered.
In their pipeline, they have a new chronograph movement based on Valjoux 23, a World Time watch with cloisonné enamel dial, and a tourbillon based on a vintage Longines movement.
Some might wonder whether they can scale, but perhaps the more pertinent question would be: “Do they even want to?” It would appear their strategy could be summed up as “Small batch, high quality, insanely desirable.”
We’ve talked about the ‘essence’ in a watch. The story behind a piece being the secret sauce which allows collectors to spend untold sums on useless objects. It seems that’s precisely what AdC is doing here. They’re selling stories, with decent craftsmanship, and bringing owners along for the journey so they very feel like creators themselves.
In the age of mass production, the ultimate luxury is something made just for you, which is exactly what Atelier de Chronométrie is offering. The flipside of this, is of course acknowledging that if everything is bespoke, the unit costs are going to be astronomical - which is of course why, in that ENTIRE article, the words' ‘cost’ and ‘price’ do not feature once. Not a single time.
“If you have to ask how much it costs, you can’t afford it.”
Atelier de Chronométrie … or was it J. P. Morgan?! 😜
Lang & Heyne: Fine Watchmaking from Saxony
The final deep-dive is from Swiss Watches Magazine, who wrote about their visit to Lang & Heyne’s manufacture in the small German town of Radeberg near Dresden.
So, now we’re diving into a world of hyper-luxury watches that my buddy
reckons make most Swiss watches look like they were pulled out of a lucky packet5.Founded by Marco Lang and Mirko Heyne in 2001 in Dresden, Germany, Lang & Heyne had a weird start; One of the founders, Mirko Heyne bailed a year after founding it! Marco Lang continued to run it until some rich guy named Ulrich Rhode (and his Tempus Arte Group) bought the company in 2013. Lang stayed on as a watchmaker until 2019, developing nine different calibres. The brand has since grown from making 30 watches in 2013 to 150 in 2024. Alexander Gutierrez Diaz now runs Lang & Heyne as their Managing Director.
Now, let’s talk about their mad scientist, Jens Schneider. This guy sounds like the watchmaking equivalent of Willy Wonka, minus the Oompa Loompas. His philosophy? “Our watches should have no expiration date.” In a world of disposable everything, that's a middle finger to planned obsolescence.
Over 90% of the components are made in-house. They’re not outsourcing to China and use many old machines which are over 70 years old. They don’t make balance springs in-house, claiming their low volume, small footprint of the manufacture, and high capital requirements make this rather prohibitive. They also have at least 3 CNC machines, and two lathes - this allows them to make base plates, bridges, cocks, balances, levers, springs and even pins and screws by themselves.
Not only screws but also hands are blued, creating a beautiful contrast to the white enamel dials. Not only are the surfaces of the gear wheels elaborately given a circular graining, but even the teeth and spaces between them are polished with a fine goat-hair brush. No surface escapes the careful hands of the finishers. One of them is currently finishing the barrel, but from the underside, which won’t be visible. “If a watchmaker ever opens this, he’ll be pleased,” he says with a smile. All parts are hand-finished, making the components not only aesthetically pleasing but also functionally advantageous by reducing friction between moving parts, thus increasing efficiency and durability of the movement.
Now, let’s talk dials and hands, because apparently making insanely complex movements wasn’t enough for these overachievers. They’ve got their own enamel workshop where they do the “double-baked” enamel thing; First, they melt enamel onto a pure silver plate at about 800°C, then they cool it, polish it, and bake it again with all the indexes and numerals at ~700°C. Once that’s done, they cut out the edges by hand with a compass and file, then polish it - giving the dials a slightly domed shape.
Now, about those hands. They’re making these bad boys in-house too. We're talking lancet, cathedral, pear, pike, and even some fancy Louis XV hands that are hand-engraved. To handle these delicate pieces without snapping them, they lacquer them onto a carrier and then grind them until they’re three-dimensional. It’s like sculpture, but for ants6.
Apparently it takes a trained watchmaker up to a year before they are allowed to attempt making hands on their own. Pretty sure you could learn to fly a plane in less time, but I stand corrected.
Pre-assembly of their Anton calibre 9 takes about a week, and final assembly another day. Then they take it all apart again, clean everything, oil it up, and reassemble it under sterile conditions. Then comes a 14-day test cycle, because two weeks is apparently how long it takes to make sure time itself is behaving properly.
To cap it all off, it turns out they’re big on customisation, and when your watch is done, you can collect it from the factory and take a tour of the facilities - which is not unusual nowadays.
Honestly, this was a great read, even if just for the images. If you have 10 minutes to kill, check it out.
Enough small talk… Let’s dig in.
ScrewDownCrown is a reader-supported guide to the world of watch collecting, behavioural psychology, & other first world problems.
🤯 The Einstellung Effect
Let’s start with a quick exercise. It’ll only take a couple of minutes, and you’ll be fascinated by what it reveals about your mind.
Suppose you have three water jugs, each holding a specific amount of water. Your task is to measure out a target amount using only these jugs. You have an unlimited water supply. Just like the Die Hard Scene 😉
Let’s try one together. Your target is 100 litres, and you have the three jugs shown above, with the capacity noted on each.
Take a moment to figure out how you would do it.
The most efficient method is to fill the largest jug (B) with 127 litres, then pour out 21 litres into Jug A, and 3 litres into Jug C twice. You’re left with exactly 100 litres in Jug B.
Now, try solving these next few problems. Feel free to use a calculator:
How did you do?
If you solved most of them, well done! Now, here’s the twist: The first five problems can all be solved using the method used in the first example, but it is not always the most efficient way.
Take a look at problem 6 again. Your target is 20 litres. Yes, you could fill Jug B with 49 litres, pour 23 into Jug A, and 3 into Jug C twice. Cool.
You could also just fill Jug A with 23 litres and pour 3 into Jug C once? Much simpler, right?
Welcome to the Einstellung effect!
This fascinating quirk of human cognition was first unveiled by Abraham S. Luchins in 1942. Luchins, a psychologist with a penchant for water jars and mathematical puzzles, designed this experiment to reveal how easily our minds can become set in their ways.
In his groundbreaking study, Luchins found 64% of participants continued to use a complex method even when simpler solutions were available. Even more astonishingly, 79% failed to solve a problem that couldn’t use the familiar method at all.
“The Einstellung effect is characterised by a person’s predisposition to solve a given problem in a specific manner even though better or more appropriate methods of solving the problem exist”
Luchins
Why does this happen? It is as if our brains are lazy - or perhaps just efficient. Once we find a solution that works, we tend to stop looking for alternatives. It’s a bit like always taking the same route to work, even when there might be a quicker way. Most people enjoy familiarity.
This mental stubbornness isn’t just about water jars and puzzles. It seeps into every aspect of our lives. In the corporate world, it can be the difference between innovation and stagnation. Take Kodak, for instance. They invented the digital camera in 1975, but their minds were so set on film photography that they failed to embrace the digital revolution. The result? Bankruptcy lol.
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
Henry Ford
Even when it comes to watches, the Einstellung effect ticks away behind the scenes. I think it is often in ways so subtle, even seasoned collectors don’t notice.
Strap choices: A collector who has always enjoyed watches on bracelets might overlook the elegance and comfort of a hand crafted strap. (I know it’s true, because this used to be me!)
Dial patina: When evaluating vintage watches, a collector might have a fixed idea of what “good” patina looks like based on their favourite pieces, potentially undervaluing watches with different but equally interesting patterns.
Photography angles: When sharing photos, a collector might habitually use the same wrist angle, potentially missing how different lighting and positions can highlight various aspects of their watches.
Box and papers: Many collectors consistently prioritise full set watches, overlooking excellent examples that lack original packaging but offer superior condition or provenance - not to mention they have entire storage units filled with boxes collecting dust, for watches they don’t ever intend to sell.
Auction bidding strategy: A collector might always wait until the last moment to bid, not considering that certain auctions or pieces might benefit from a different approach.
Date window perspective: A purist who generally dislikes date windows might overlook instances where a date complication is integrated particularly well into a dial design.
Some of these might sound silly to you, but I personally know of first-hand examples for each of these!
The Einstellung effect can also influence how collectors approach watch maintenance. A collector who has always serviced their watches at the brand’s official service centre might automatically dismiss independent watchmakers, even those with superior skills and more reasonable prices. They’re stuck in the mental rut of “only the brand knows best.” This sounds like a stretch, but I personally know two collectors who consciously avoided independent watchmakers for the longest time, and one of them is slowly coming around to the idea of buying from a handful of them who demonstrate a long term vision to develop a brand which will live beyond their own lifetime.
Even when it comes to watch photography, this effect seems to persist. A collector might always photograph their watches at the classic 10:10 position, missing out on creative angles that would better showcase certain design features of a watch. Many watches might be better appreciated when photographed to highlight an elegant case shape rather than the dial (@doobooloo does a good job on these types of shots; Both taking them, as well as sharing others’ shots of this nature).
Still, there’s hope for us all. In his experiments, Luchins found that simply telling people “Don’t be blind” (upfront), increased the percentage of participants using simpler methods from 1% to 41%. Essentially, awareness is the first step to removing these mental blinders.
As you’d expect, age plays a role too. A study by Ross in 1952 compared middle-aged adults (mean age 37.3) with older adults (mean age 60.8). The results were more drastic than you’d expect; 65% of older adults failed the extinction task (a problem that couldn’t be solved with the familiar method), compared to only 29% of middle-aged adults.
Later research by Luchins revealed a curvilinear relationship7 between age and recovery from the Einstellung effect. Young adults (mean age 21) showed the effect 56% of the time, children (mean age 10.5) 68%, and older adults (mean age 43) 69%. Essentially, our mental flexibility peaks in young adulthood, before our ways of thinking become more entrenched.
And so, to wrap things up… How can we keep our minds limber and avoid getting stuck? In terms of watch collecting, you’ll know yourself better than most, so the exact applications will be unique to you. It might mean deliberately trying on watches outside your comfort zone. If you’re a die-hard mainstream watch fan, why not give independent watchmakers a spin? I recall writing a whole separate post about this a year or two ago, something to the effect of ‘try it, you just might like it’ - Today’s post is more scientific, so I stand by my old musings 😁
As for applying this to our daily lives, I think it’s self explanatory; Try and cultivate curiosity, and a new level of receptiveness to new ideas. A study published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology by Dronek and Blessing in 2006 found that exposure to diverse problem-solving techniques can help mitigate the Einstellung effect. This sounds like major admin, but it isn’t - Try taking a different route to work, or approach a familiar task in a novel way. Basically, train your brain to look for alternatives, even when you think you know the answer.
The Einstellung effect is a reminder of how our greatest strength - our ability to learn and adapt - can sometimes become a weakness. Our minds are pattern-making machines, which usually serves us well. Sometimes, however, those patterns can become mental constraints.
The point of sharing this in a watch collecting newsletter is to highlight how this quirk of cognition can hinder your collecting experience. Hopefully this motivates you to break free where applicable. Try and challenge your assumptions, question your habitual approaches, and open yourself up to new possibilities. Whether you’re solving puzzles, collecting watches, or navigating the vicissitudes of life8, stop and consider whether there is another way. Then, don’t forget to thank me for it 😉
🤡 Tom Wolfe is Back… Kinda.
Look, as well as being informative, SDC is also meant to be fun. You may not learn much from this section, so if you are pressed for time, skip this section. With that caveat out of the way, let me tell you something…
There are those among us - yes, even in our exalted circles of haute horology - who seem to have the social magnetism of a Swatch boutique on the release day of a new MoonSwatch. Everyone... and I mean ev-ery-one... wants to bathe in their aura, to collaborate, to join their coterie, to have them grace their soirées with their scintillating presence!
And then... oh boy... then there are those other cvnts. The poor souls whose attempts at human connection fall flatter than an Octo Finissimo being sat on by Cardi B. Their plaintive cries for companionship? Rejected! Their bewildered expressions? Priceless! (Unlike their watches, let’s be honest.)
Now, we often pontificate that the formation of social bonds is as mysterious and ineffable as the inner workings of Journe’s Chronomètre a Resonance. And sure, there’s a soupçon of that je ne sais quoi at play.
But strip away the mystique, dear friends, and you’ll find something curious: Beneath the dial of human interaction ticks a fairly straightforward mechanism. It is a visceral, instinctual judgment, as quick and decisive as the snap of a flyback chronograph hand. Will this person be a boon or a burden to my existence?
Life, dear readers, is no walk in the park. It’s more like trying to assemble a Greubel Forsey Quadruple Tourbillon whilst wearing divers’ gloves. Each of us carries a burden heavier than a platinum Daytona. So it isn’t surprising that we gravitate towards those who promise to lighten our load, not those who threaten to weigh us down.
People… and I’m talking about real people here, not the cardboard cutouts you see at watch fairs; They’re drawn to those who listen more than they spew garbage about the superiority of in-house movements or the merits of true GMT watches. They’re magnetised by individuals who dish out compliments like a Lange watch dishes out service charges (Often, to be sure).
But oh, how they recoil! Yes, recoil from those dreary souls who drone on about misaligned bezels and off-coloured date wheels, who passively wait to be wound up and set in motion, who drift through life like a morose, mood-darkening tempest in a teacup (or should I say, in a watch roll? GTFOH!).
No, no, no! People are inexorably pulled towards those who offer beauty… Be it the timeless elegance of a Calatrava, the avant-garde artistry of an Akrivia, or the meticulously curated watch vault that would make George fvcking Daniels weep with joy. They seek out those who can regale them with tales of rare vintage finds and horological adventures, who can find the silver lining even when faced with the heartbreak of a shattered crystal.
If life was a series of grand complications, everyone will take turns being the mainspring and the balance wheel, but at the end of the day, we all want to surround ourselves with those who feel like a limited edition. A true net gain, not a run-of-the-mill loss leader.
What is the point? What indeed!! Write this down: If you find yourself struggling to make connections in this weird world of ours, instead of endlessly winding the crown of self-doubt and wondering, “Why don’t people like me?”, start to ask yourself a different question:
“What can I do to add more tick to people’s tock?”
Life as a collector is not just about keeping perfect time - it’s about making every second count! 😘
📌 Links of interest
© Listen to Jack Forster’s take on homage watches above. A moderate take, to say the least!
🤡 You might have seen Barack Obama wearing a Shinola watch recently. Reminded me of this old article: The Real History of America’s Most Authentic Fake Brand.
✅ Antitrust Authorities Sign off on Rolex’s Acquisition of Bucherer. Weird that nobody else is reporting on this?
🤝 Corrado Mattarelli (Only Vintage) buys stake in Monaco Legend Group and takes deputy chairman role.
📉 Company Results: Swatch Shares Plunge as Profit Falls 70% on China Weakness and Richemont Reports Stable Sales For Q1 2024.
⌚ Everything you need to know about the Lemania powered Patek Philippe Chronograph wristwatches produced between 1986 and 2011.
💲 A Vintage Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Just Sold For $1 Million At A Small Auction; Here's What It Means.
🐱🐉 The stegosaurus that Sotheby’s calls Apex stands 11 feet (3.3 meters) tall and measures 27 feet (8.2 meters) nose to tail - Apex will be auctioned in New York.
🗺 A short history of Taiwan and China, in maps.
🤑 Google Near $23 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Startup Wiz. One of only a few startups outside the artificial-intelligence industry to raise money at a higher valuation in 2024.
🔋 Why most battery-makers struggle to make money - Also hints at EV adoption rates not meeting expectations, but ignores grid-batteries for balancing renewable growth.
🔫 What business leaders are saying about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
📱 You’re holding your phone wrong - A few simple tips and lifestyle changes to minimise hand, eye and brain problems.
🐳 The sperm whale ‘phonetic alphabet’ revealed by AI. How epic!
🦛 Pablo Escobar’s Abandoned Hippos Are Wreaking Havoc in the Colombian Jungle.
💫 30 amazing images of our Universe – Astronomy Photographer of the Year 2024.
✈ See how airlines and airports compare when ranked by AirHelp.
🏗 The world’s best new architecture revealed.
🐭 Scientists edit the genes of gut bacteria in living mice. Our gut microbes could soon be getting a genetic upgrade, flushing our tummy issues down the toilet.
☠ The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden. Pity it wasn’t published sooner!
🎭 The Last 72 Hours of Archegos: Bill Hwang’s doomed family office is on trial, but it’s Wall Street that looks terrible.
🏎 How Rivian Became the Anti-Tesla: The startup persuaded Elon-phobic car buyers to drop $70,000 on its EVs. Now it just needs to make money.
👛 The ‘Pay Phone Bandit’ Who Baffled the FBI in the ’80s. A fun story.
🃏 How poker became a game for “nerds” who are willing to study and implement complex strategies, rather than the stereotypical gamblers of the past.
🔊 What Speakers That Cost $370,000 Sound Like (10 min video)
🔚 End Note
In case you missed it… here’s a post from last week:
If you haven’t read it, take a moment, and be sure to leave a comment on your way out!
On Monday I also wrote about Morgan Stanley’s latest report on the Swiss Watch Industry - here it is:
Before we go on, I’ll share a quote which I tried to explain to my four-year-old child. Probably didn’t land yet… but will keep trying!
“He who angers you conquers you.”
- Elizabeth Kenny
With that, I thought I’d share an old tale. It is one of a father who wanted to teach his son the importance of mastering his temper. He handed his son a sack of nails and instructed him to drive a nail into their wooden fence each time he lost his cool.
Initially, the lad found himself hammering in plenty of nails each day, but as the exercise heightened his awareness of anger, the kid began to lose his temper less frequently. Noticing this reduction in anger, his father then advised him to instead, remove a nail for each day that passed without an angry outburst.
Once the boy had removed all the nails he originally hammered into the fence, his father brought him to inspect the fence, which now seemed like it had been used for target practice with a shotgun.
“When you’re tempted to revert to your old ways,” the father counselled his son, “remember these holes. Though you’ve removed the nails, the damage cannot be undone. Similarly, anger can inflict irreparable harm.”
This is a difficult truth to face, but one we’ve all experienced in some way.
After unleashing a critical tirade on your child, you might attempt to justify or mitigate it by citing how overworked or stressed you’ve been. The thing is, your child doesn’t register this context at the time. Ten, twenty, thirty years later, it will still very much be forgotten, but the sting of your words remains indelibly etched in memory.
After weaponising a vulnerability your partner has shared with you, transforming something that once strengthened your bond into a sharp, targeted barb of esteem-shattering destruction, you plead for forgiveness, having succumbed to such an ill-considered impulse. Yet you know, in that moment, a wound has been opened that will never fully heal.
Contrition is crucial, no doubt. Changed behaviour can rebuild trust, sure. Just remember that no volume of apologies or excuses can ever retract the angry, damage-inflicting words you’ve allowed to escape.
Like a careless slip of a springbar leaving an irreparable mark on your lugs9, every harsh word we utter will etch a permanent mark on our relationships, forever visible under the loupe we call … memory.
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”
Maya Angelou
Until next time,
F ✌
😊 Bonus link: This Puzzle Robot is 200x Faster Than a Human
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A native or inhabitant of South Africa.
Again, I don’t think he will read this, but its meant for him anyway 😂
Find the full report here.
This seems too high to me - but even if it’s wrong, it will be lower, so the point stands and I’m leaving it in. Here’s the source - Forbes.
Ok, he didn’t say that exactly...
Zoolander fans?
A Curvilinear Relationship is a type of relationship between two variables where as one variable increases, so does the other variable, but only up to a certain point, after which, as one variable continues to increase, the other decreases. Supposedly like recreational drugs - as you consume more, it is more enjoyable, until it stops being enjoyable, and in fact becomes terrifying. So I’m told, anyway. Let me know if you have any experiential data to share on the matter.
One of my dear mother’s favourite phrases. She’s a phenomenally inspiring human. 😃
Don’t even pretend this hasn’t happened to you 🤣
Very enjoyable read as ever
The customization provided by Atelier de Chronometrie with the highest level of craftmanship is the definition of luxury. The established brands will make limited batch/piece unique for top customers (ie Black label at Journe, Tom Brady watch from AP). Here, every customer is treated as a top customer. Pretty remarkable.