Clymer Speaks, Tiffany Woes, Gen-Z Consumer Trends, Swiss Watch Industry June Update, More Rolex Patents, Zero Tax Map, History of UBI, Vape Phones, Norwegian Parenting, Rideshare Mafia and more!
Great work as always. I have a slightly different take on Ben's Hodinkee post. My reading of it is that the business was on the verge of a cashflow crisis and had no realistic ability to raise yet more money from investors (who have already been burnt on several funding rounds), so it had to shut down its core sales operations. A blog that does not sell anything is hardly worth seven figures, let alone nine figures. The equity is likely to be worthless, and the company will be on the verge of default on its credit facilities (perhaps there has already been a default and a forbearance arrangement is in place). To be clear - a watch retailer is turning into a journalism business. That is an absolute car crash for investors. I actually like Ben and I think that he is treated too harshly by some people online, but what we are seeing is an orderly wind-down of a company in financial distress.
Agree with your take on the business situation, and have previously stated the same - from the lack of investors to the cashflow crisis.
The only thing that could have been delivered differently is the tone. Its framed as a rebirth, which it is - but it fails to acknowledge the real challenges faced by many as a result of the poor strategic choices made along the way. A simple heartfelt thanks to those departing - as opposed to “oh we’re not doing that anymore, no biggie” might have landed better.
I don’t dis/like the guy, I don’t even know him. There is no question however, that a lot of the decisions over the last couple of years have been irresponsible and the message he conveys fails to take any ownership - and maybe he was ill advised or just plain ignorant about how to run a business- but as the leader it is his job to own it. All of it.
As I also wrote in March - I think the dink has done so much for the hobby and if they return to being “the same” as they were a decade ago, that’s a win for enthusiasts, no question about it.
Your words on discipline are absolutely beautiful. I'm gonna print "That future self exists in potentia, waiting to be born through the chrysalis of your daily habits and choices." and frame it in front of my desk.
1. It would’ve been more useful to share the watches for each category you think should’ve been nominated, but are from brands that don’t participate in the GPHG awards, thus underscoring your contention that the whole affair is meaningless.
2. You didn’t need to nominate CW twice. Could’ve taken out the moon phase and replaced with the Anoma.
Man, this was already time consuming. To undertake my own research on the entire spectrum of watches on earth which would be eligible, is probably impossible given my available time - by the time I was done, it'd be old news.
The Gen Z insights are interesting on how this generation finds and consumes products. There is clear shift in how younger generation interact with technologies and how it has altered their preferences from previous generations in product selection and how they make decisions. It will continue to shift and change and I am curious to see how it will shift again. As you mentioned the cyclical nature of items in the philosophy section of the post. I predict a shift in how the streaming content, digital posts of endless options lead to decision fatigue and analysis paralysis. It will become, and would argue already is the weakness of the very platforms. There is little need to cull the good from the bad and the mediocre. Physical constraints help cull through crap, and refine the options. My prediction, as I have seen locally, so it is very anecdotal, is that brick and mortar will keep a prominent position and may even grow again, especially in the luxury market. While online audiences and attention captured is important, and creating awareness can exist in the digital. The physical experience for many products - take watches in this example - cannot be fully replaced via the internet. The overall experience of seeing, trying, wearing and being catered to will continue to be physical. People chase experiences, you do not dine out to save money, you dine out and pay multiples more the meal for the experience. Sure there is a convenience factor to fast food, but a restaurant is about the experience. The more brick and mortar retail show the experience, they will have the audience of the younger generations, especially if these locations have culled through the good from the bad, they become the trusted advisor of the consumer. Other examples exist on Substack, a great writer who had a solid take on a lot of information and can provide great insights and synopses will have a good following of paid subscribers who see the value in not having to spend untold hours culling through x number of blogs, papers etc.. to get the information. They have paid and outsourced the culling of information to a trusted source since there is too much information coming at them. Not sure why I went down this road of commentary, but the slide deck you linked was intriguing.
Hodinkee, I hope they find their footing, all I can say, they are not a tech company that can loose money three years in row to grow market share. That’s not industry they are in and need to find a path to sustainable revenue that matches their opex and provides some type of return. I hope Ben and the remaining team find it.
GPHG - you asked for picks - first my caveat. Not fan of much of entries overall of GPHG over the years. Most of what draws me in, is never there. Looking at the submission my initial impression was “this is the best we can do.” It’s my honest reaction. I am sure I am not alone, but I know what I like and what I don’t. So I will be a bit controversial with my picks. I’m sure there will be eye rolling and the “seriously?” cross eyed moments.
Ladies - Hermes Cut
Ladies Complication Van Cleef & Arpels / Time Only - not really feeling any but lets g with the LV Escale (it had to be the damn party they threw LOL)
Men’s - Parmigiani edges out IWC barely, again meh overall
Men’s Complication - have mercy, can we skip this one? - L.U. Chopard since I have to pick,
Iconic - skipped, I agree not sure what is the icon over the years in there. I guess the Big Pilot has been around a long time and still popular, so we will go with the IWC Big Pilot.
Tourbillon - Voutilainen, LUC and Arnold and Son honorable mention for close second and third.
Calendar - IWC eternal
Mechanical - Bvlgari
Chronograph - lets go with Angelus for the monopusher and cleaner dial.
Sport - if none is an option, I will go with that, if not then its IWC AMG, biased since I’ve handled it and I’ve had some great interactions with the actual IWC staff.
Interesting thoughts on the endless streaming options might lead to fatigue; they're currently designed to be dopamine triggers, so this avoids the fatigue, but is worse for our health.
As for the physical aspect being a requirement and the digital being the 'hook' to pull people towards physical, I am on the fence. That is true for us, but how true it might be for the next generation, I am unsure. There's something to be said about the 'experience' but maybe they won't value that at all?
The restaurant example is a strong one. Does this fit the luxury buying experience too? Possibly. Maybe even probably. But not 'definitely' in my head anyway.
Man I can't believe you did the GPHG picks - that was a stoic effort! And rapid too.
LV party swayed you - I knew it would 🤣
Upon reflection, with your Hermes choices, I think you might be onto something.
Why did you land on Bvlgari for mechanical? As a feat?
In sport, I'd go with none too.
In fact that's exactly my gripe with this... slim pickings lead to twisting one's arm to force a choice when the right answer is NONE.
Anyway, I am glad I did it, and even more pleased you did too. Thank you.
In the end it’s Bvglari due to a COSC certification at 1.7 mm thick was a tad bit, not much, more impressive to me than Lederer with is remontoire and double escapement. I could have gone either way. Those were really the only two that really spoke to me and stood out. Hublot had a an interesting winding mechanism, but in the end the MP10 didn’t get there for the finale.
I'd agree with you, and the reason I still wouldn't pick it is because of the price. If it was a 'mechanical achievement' price, then sure. But the category was broader, so I felt the price was relevant to the assessment.
The cost of parking at my usual spot near SoHo Beach House in Miami Beach just went from $6 for the first hour to $20. No way inflation is only 3%. Now pass the Fondue before they raise the price! 😁 Very informative! 👌🏾👑
You’ve certainly seen the second wife; coincidentally, I have a (watch) friend whose wife grew up with Cara in Charleston so I have heard all the dirt via him.
Great work as always. I have a slightly different take on Ben's Hodinkee post. My reading of it is that the business was on the verge of a cashflow crisis and had no realistic ability to raise yet more money from investors (who have already been burnt on several funding rounds), so it had to shut down its core sales operations. A blog that does not sell anything is hardly worth seven figures, let alone nine figures. The equity is likely to be worthless, and the company will be on the verge of default on its credit facilities (perhaps there has already been a default and a forbearance arrangement is in place). To be clear - a watch retailer is turning into a journalism business. That is an absolute car crash for investors. I actually like Ben and I think that he is treated too harshly by some people online, but what we are seeing is an orderly wind-down of a company in financial distress.
Agree with your take on the business situation, and have previously stated the same - from the lack of investors to the cashflow crisis.
The only thing that could have been delivered differently is the tone. Its framed as a rebirth, which it is - but it fails to acknowledge the real challenges faced by many as a result of the poor strategic choices made along the way. A simple heartfelt thanks to those departing - as opposed to “oh we’re not doing that anymore, no biggie” might have landed better.
I don’t dis/like the guy, I don’t even know him. There is no question however, that a lot of the decisions over the last couple of years have been irresponsible and the message he conveys fails to take any ownership - and maybe he was ill advised or just plain ignorant about how to run a business- but as the leader it is his job to own it. All of it.
As I also wrote in March - I think the dink has done so much for the hobby and if they return to being “the same” as they were a decade ago, that’s a win for enthusiasts, no question about it.
Fully agreed! I remember when I used to read Hodinkee every day many years ago. I very rarely visit the website now.
Your words on discipline are absolutely beautiful. I'm gonna print "That future self exists in potentia, waiting to be born through the chrysalis of your daily habits and choices." and frame it in front of my desk.
Please send me a pic when you do 😄 - I’ll frame THAT! 🖼️
Thank you for putting the Sartory-Billard SB06 in your choice
Let’s really hope your crystal ball is right :)
😂 here’s hoping 🤞
Lovvvvvve the ending 👏🏽
Thanks for taking the time brother. 🙌
Excellent piece on discipline; thanks.
Thanks for taking the time, Brad! 👊
Just sometimes ;)
Not ideal
You did a fantastic job…again!
Was interesting to follow your emotions through the text :)
And thanks for very inspiring ending :D
That obvious huh 😂
Thanks for reading!
1. It would’ve been more useful to share the watches for each category you think should’ve been nominated, but are from brands that don’t participate in the GPHG awards, thus underscoring your contention that the whole affair is meaningless.
2. You didn’t need to nominate CW twice. Could’ve taken out the moon phase and replaced with the Anoma.
Yeah, great points. Some say, the level of erudition you display is awe-inspiring. I can see why.
Thanks for taking the time Hamza. 🙏
You should do this nominating exercise next week.
Man, this was already time consuming. To undertake my own research on the entire spectrum of watches on earth which would be eligible, is probably impossible given my available time - by the time I was done, it'd be old news.
Excuses.
👏
You know he’s going to have Journes in them all right?
Smh 🤦♂️
Two take aways, I need to google this Mrbeast.. no clue who that is.. secondly, how do I get in on this Kallinich Claeys.. it’s quite nice!
Appreciate the long form as always!
Mr Beast is the world biggest YouTuber 😂
The KC is all sold out. I checked 💀🤷
Thanks, will write to them for the next round!
Thanks for the shout out! I just did my GPHG voting and some categories were pretty hard work…
I now know the feeling... smh!
The Gen Z insights are interesting on how this generation finds and consumes products. There is clear shift in how younger generation interact with technologies and how it has altered their preferences from previous generations in product selection and how they make decisions. It will continue to shift and change and I am curious to see how it will shift again. As you mentioned the cyclical nature of items in the philosophy section of the post. I predict a shift in how the streaming content, digital posts of endless options lead to decision fatigue and analysis paralysis. It will become, and would argue already is the weakness of the very platforms. There is little need to cull the good from the bad and the mediocre. Physical constraints help cull through crap, and refine the options. My prediction, as I have seen locally, so it is very anecdotal, is that brick and mortar will keep a prominent position and may even grow again, especially in the luxury market. While online audiences and attention captured is important, and creating awareness can exist in the digital. The physical experience for many products - take watches in this example - cannot be fully replaced via the internet. The overall experience of seeing, trying, wearing and being catered to will continue to be physical. People chase experiences, you do not dine out to save money, you dine out and pay multiples more the meal for the experience. Sure there is a convenience factor to fast food, but a restaurant is about the experience. The more brick and mortar retail show the experience, they will have the audience of the younger generations, especially if these locations have culled through the good from the bad, they become the trusted advisor of the consumer. Other examples exist on Substack, a great writer who had a solid take on a lot of information and can provide great insights and synopses will have a good following of paid subscribers who see the value in not having to spend untold hours culling through x number of blogs, papers etc.. to get the information. They have paid and outsourced the culling of information to a trusted source since there is too much information coming at them. Not sure why I went down this road of commentary, but the slide deck you linked was intriguing.
Hodinkee, I hope they find their footing, all I can say, they are not a tech company that can loose money three years in row to grow market share. That’s not industry they are in and need to find a path to sustainable revenue that matches their opex and provides some type of return. I hope Ben and the remaining team find it.
GPHG - you asked for picks - first my caveat. Not fan of much of entries overall of GPHG over the years. Most of what draws me in, is never there. Looking at the submission my initial impression was “this is the best we can do.” It’s my honest reaction. I am sure I am not alone, but I know what I like and what I don’t. So I will be a bit controversial with my picks. I’m sure there will be eye rolling and the “seriously?” cross eyed moments.
Ladies - Hermes Cut
Ladies Complication Van Cleef & Arpels / Time Only - not really feeling any but lets g with the LV Escale (it had to be the damn party they threw LOL)
Men’s - Parmigiani edges out IWC barely, again meh overall
Men’s Complication - have mercy, can we skip this one? - L.U. Chopard since I have to pick,
Iconic - skipped, I agree not sure what is the icon over the years in there. I guess the Big Pilot has been around a long time and still popular, so we will go with the IWC Big Pilot.
Tourbillon - Voutilainen, LUC and Arnold and Son honorable mention for close second and third.
Calendar - IWC eternal
Mechanical - Bvlgari
Chronograph - lets go with Angelus for the monopusher and cleaner dial.
Sport - if none is an option, I will go with that, if not then its IWC AMG, biased since I’ve handled it and I’ve had some great interactions with the actual IWC staff.
Jewelry - yikes / Artistic - Piaget / Petit - Fears, why not.
Challenge - Kollokium
Interesting thoughts on the endless streaming options might lead to fatigue; they're currently designed to be dopamine triggers, so this avoids the fatigue, but is worse for our health.
As for the physical aspect being a requirement and the digital being the 'hook' to pull people towards physical, I am on the fence. That is true for us, but how true it might be for the next generation, I am unsure. There's something to be said about the 'experience' but maybe they won't value that at all?
The restaurant example is a strong one. Does this fit the luxury buying experience too? Possibly. Maybe even probably. But not 'definitely' in my head anyway.
Man I can't believe you did the GPHG picks - that was a stoic effort! And rapid too.
LV party swayed you - I knew it would 🤣
Upon reflection, with your Hermes choices, I think you might be onto something.
Why did you land on Bvlgari for mechanical? As a feat?
In sport, I'd go with none too.
In fact that's exactly my gripe with this... slim pickings lead to twisting one's arm to force a choice when the right answer is NONE.
Anyway, I am glad I did it, and even more pleased you did too. Thank you.
In the end it’s Bvglari due to a COSC certification at 1.7 mm thick was a tad bit, not much, more impressive to me than Lederer with is remontoire and double escapement. I could have gone either way. Those were really the only two that really spoke to me and stood out. Hublot had a an interesting winding mechanism, but in the end the MP10 didn’t get there for the finale.
I'd agree with you, and the reason I still wouldn't pick it is because of the price. If it was a 'mechanical achievement' price, then sure. But the category was broader, so I felt the price was relevant to the assessment.
Vape phone? Take my money please! Another eclectic and eccentric roundup. Thank you for your service.
😂 of all the things … that was possibly THE most absurd, I agree.
Thanks, as always, for taking the time 🤝 🙏
The cost of parking at my usual spot near SoHo Beach House in Miami Beach just went from $6 for the first hour to $20. No way inflation is only 3%. Now pass the Fondue before they raise the price! 😁 Very informative! 👌🏾👑
I think they charge based on the value of your car at that parking spot. But yeah, let’s smash a fondue 😂
Thanks for reading hermano 🙏
😂
Ben Clymer did get himself a new wife, but his first wife was vastly more attractive, so … 🤷🏻♂️
Jeez Sherman 🧌😂
Probably less to do with looks and more to do with how she treats him / how they get along. But I haven’t a clue - nor have I seen his ex wife.
First wife - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexandrahaxton/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app
You’ve certainly seen the second wife; coincidentally, I have a (watch) friend whose wife grew up with Cara in Charleston so I have heard all the dirt via him.
Oh yeah, I have seen her before!
Any dirt worth knowing? Other than he snores and likes Gouda cheese?
-Ben was married to Alex Haxton
-Cara came to Hodinkee; Cara was either married or in a serious relationship
-Ben and Cara began dating clandestinely
-Cara left Hodinkee
-Now they’re married with kids
With a white picket fence no doubt.