Explore the watch world's latest: GPHG nominations revealed, luxury market shifts analysed, and Tissot's ambitious plans examined. Plus, Dostoevsky's unexpected wisdom for collectors, industry updates on Patek Philippe and Rolex, and a bonus exploration of the simulation hypothesis.
“It’s funny because each sweep of the seconds hand is like another line in our own version of “Crime and Punishment” - the crime being the obscene amount we spend on watches, and the punishment our wives’ rolling eyes and accountants’ despondent sighs 😂”
" I noted previously that I regretted doing this - and this resonates yet again. I feel obliged to finish what I started, so we will do this only once more, when the winners are announced"
It's nice to see someone else reach the same conclusions you have... doing round-by-round GPHG predictions was exhausting last year and I vowed not to do it again :-D
I think any discussion of the secondary watch market must address the reality that there are in fact two (at least) very distinct and largely disconnected watch markets. Once is virtually entirely financialized and sees watches trading as assets based on the financial health of the traders (patek/ap/rolex - approximtately 1% of available inventory but 60+% of transactions) and the other a collectors market where people value watches as watches.
Trying to compare watches trading values between these two groups is a fools errand as the basis for valuation has as much in common as a currency traders and a numismatist.
Agreed. You can’t actually compute a ‘market value’ for how person A (and B,C,D,E…) each values the same watch beyond the price they paid (for example… )
The secondary watch market, in my opinion from what I can observe, may be near or at its bottom this coming quarter. It is fascinating to think about the aggregation to de-aggregation and now the re-aggregation between brands and the consumer that you bring to light and how this re-aggregation may look very different with technology. Perhaps this may be where your AI experiences may find a role in future. I am also starting to see more and more experiences and brand outreach to the collectors in our community as a way of keeping the relationships “in house” and with the secondary market companies.
Prices are normalizing to a degree I feel but now it is harder to parse out those who’s pricing model chased Chrono 24 pricing and that which it due to inflation.
Dostoevsky, loved, love all of it. Not too much to say other thank you for this section.
Momento Mori and watches has been on my mind prior to reading this. I have contemplating “the last watch”. This has many versions and meanings but it’s a work in progress. Also. I have been afraid of the next move with my company, again something you highlighted with Dostoevsky. It resonated with me.
Thanks for taking the time - I am way behind on my ‘hobby life’ due to a series of workshops and deliverables in ‘normal life’ - funny that, given the topics covered here.
Imagine you are a hot shot CIA analyst (in your own mind at least) and your assignment is to report on Russian production of ladies wrist watches, doh. Wait, where do I sign up? :D
One other stray thought...your follower who is taking a break...does that mean he is cutting out IG/pursuing watch news/meetups/etc or just getting out of the acquisition/divestment cycle? I'm on the verge of the latter with a watch incoming tomorrow that I've been waiting on. I will soon have no more free funds to allocate towards watches, while simultaneously being very content with the assortment. I can't imagine completely checking out though.
Hello Paul, I mean take a break. To be honest, in my mind that meant completely checking out for a few months. I can feel myself teetering on the edge of complete burnout, but he talked me off the ledge a bit (in his typical cunty way btw, fucker had the nerve to give me a homework assignment). I've since decided to turn down the faucet for consumption of watch related info/content and for buying anything, though the latter has slowed down anyway as my goals have settled and the former is harder than it sounds despite how I currently feel.
I'm still grappling with it, but I will definitely scale it back and pursue some other endeavors that have taken a significant back seat over the past couple of years.
Good on you! Just received my new watch yesterday and for the first time in a long while there is nothing on my real desire list (which is great as I have no more funds I wish to allocate to this pursuit at this time). I will probably delete the classified app I use off my phone at least and I’ve already seen my browsing time on eBay and C24 go way down.
One valuable thing I’ve learned through many years of trial and (mostly) error is that it’s not just ok, but _good_ to sometimes put hobbies or personal interests away for a while. Stepping away, but not stepping out; don’t liquidate right away. I don’t care to count how many times I’ve decided I’m done with photography only to rebuy everything at greater cost a year or two later.
Conversely, there have been times when I opened a box in the attic a couple years down the line to find books/gear/whatever, and realize that whatever it is, it sparks no interest, no excitement about the re-discovery. That’s when I know I’m done.
One of the things I’ve come to enjoy about taking a break is that it gives the real world time to produce a nice backlog of news, fresh insights and interesting conversation. In other words, I get a nice reset that gives me the material to properly go into sponge mode again.
You complained about Czapek in the sports watch category, but unless you reversed the images, it didn’t get nominated there. (I think the idea of a slightly different dial being worthy of an award is silly though). I actually think the blue circle Czapek is pretty cool, but I haven’t seen this full list to know what I would have put in over it.
You're right - my mistake - now corrected. Thanks for taking the time to let me know, and agreed... a dial variation is absolutely not worthy of an award! There's a previous SDC which covered the 'full list' and it's linked there if you want to review it: https://www.screwdowncrown.com/p/sdc-weekly-59
Looking at the list, I would have definitely replaced the Parmigiani (this time with a new hat!) and probably the Chopard, with the Ming and maybe Lyrique. The Lederer is maybe my favorite here, but maybe because the previous 44mm version was one of the ugliest watches I've handled in person...at least compared to what was on the backside and this one is such a remarkable improvement.
“It’s funny because each sweep of the seconds hand is like another line in our own version of “Crime and Punishment” - the crime being the obscene amount we spend on watches, and the punishment our wives’ rolling eyes and accountants’ despondent sighs 😂”
Dostoyevsky references were all apropos 🫡
Sponge and Squeeze …..☝🏼🙌🏼yup!
Another well done edition
Cheers 🥂 and 🙇🏼♂️thanks
" I noted previously that I regretted doing this - and this resonates yet again. I feel obliged to finish what I started, so we will do this only once more, when the winners are announced"
It's nice to see someone else reach the same conclusions you have... doing round-by-round GPHG predictions was exhausting last year and I vowed not to do it again :-D
Well, have my membership card ready... I'm joining your club soon.
May the Gods of GPHG hear you out ;) thank you so very much !!
A man can dream 😂
I think any discussion of the secondary watch market must address the reality that there are in fact two (at least) very distinct and largely disconnected watch markets. Once is virtually entirely financialized and sees watches trading as assets based on the financial health of the traders (patek/ap/rolex - approximtately 1% of available inventory but 60+% of transactions) and the other a collectors market where people value watches as watches.
Trying to compare watches trading values between these two groups is a fools errand as the basis for valuation has as much in common as a currency traders and a numismatist.
Agreed. You can’t actually compute a ‘market value’ for how person A (and B,C,D,E…) each values the same watch beyond the price they paid (for example… )
SDC
The secondary watch market, in my opinion from what I can observe, may be near or at its bottom this coming quarter. It is fascinating to think about the aggregation to de-aggregation and now the re-aggregation between brands and the consumer that you bring to light and how this re-aggregation may look very different with technology. Perhaps this may be where your AI experiences may find a role in future. I am also starting to see more and more experiences and brand outreach to the collectors in our community as a way of keeping the relationships “in house” and with the secondary market companies.
Prices are normalizing to a degree I feel but now it is harder to parse out those who’s pricing model chased Chrono 24 pricing and that which it due to inflation.
Dostoevsky, loved, love all of it. Not too much to say other thank you for this section.
Momento Mori and watches has been on my mind prior to reading this. I have contemplating “the last watch”. This has many versions and meanings but it’s a work in progress. Also. I have been afraid of the next move with my company, again something you highlighted with Dostoevsky. It resonated with me.
Great post
Thanks for taking the time - I am way behind on my ‘hobby life’ due to a series of workshops and deliverables in ‘normal life’ - funny that, given the topics covered here.
Imagine you are a hot shot CIA analyst (in your own mind at least) and your assignment is to report on Russian production of ladies wrist watches, doh. Wait, where do I sign up? :D
Also, thank you.
I can't imagine such a thing 😂 - also read the other comments here and consider replying - you'll understand when you see it.
One other stray thought...your follower who is taking a break...does that mean he is cutting out IG/pursuing watch news/meetups/etc or just getting out of the acquisition/divestment cycle? I'm on the verge of the latter with a watch incoming tomorrow that I've been waiting on. I will soon have no more free funds to allocate towards watches, while simultaneously being very content with the assortment. I can't imagine completely checking out though.
Hello Paul, I mean take a break. To be honest, in my mind that meant completely checking out for a few months. I can feel myself teetering on the edge of complete burnout, but he talked me off the ledge a bit (in his typical cunty way btw, fucker had the nerve to give me a homework assignment). I've since decided to turn down the faucet for consumption of watch related info/content and for buying anything, though the latter has slowed down anyway as my goals have settled and the former is harder than it sounds despite how I currently feel.
I'm still grappling with it, but I will definitely scale it back and pursue some other endeavors that have taken a significant back seat over the past couple of years.
Good on you! Just received my new watch yesterday and for the first time in a long while there is nothing on my real desire list (which is great as I have no more funds I wish to allocate to this pursuit at this time). I will probably delete the classified app I use off my phone at least and I’ve already seen my browsing time on eBay and C24 go way down.
Enjoy your new addition!
One valuable thing I’ve learned through many years of trial and (mostly) error is that it’s not just ok, but _good_ to sometimes put hobbies or personal interests away for a while. Stepping away, but not stepping out; don’t liquidate right away. I don’t care to count how many times I’ve decided I’m done with photography only to rebuy everything at greater cost a year or two later.
Conversely, there have been times when I opened a box in the attic a couple years down the line to find books/gear/whatever, and realize that whatever it is, it sparks no interest, no excitement about the re-discovery. That’s when I know I’m done.
One of the things I’ve come to enjoy about taking a break is that it gives the real world time to produce a nice backlog of news, fresh insights and interesting conversation. In other words, I get a nice reset that gives me the material to properly go into sponge mode again.
Good question, will revert.
You complained about Czapek in the sports watch category, but unless you reversed the images, it didn’t get nominated there. (I think the idea of a slightly different dial being worthy of an award is silly though). I actually think the blue circle Czapek is pretty cool, but I haven’t seen this full list to know what I would have put in over it.
You're right - my mistake - now corrected. Thanks for taking the time to let me know, and agreed... a dial variation is absolutely not worthy of an award! There's a previous SDC which covered the 'full list' and it's linked there if you want to review it: https://www.screwdowncrown.com/p/sdc-weekly-59
Looking at the list, I would have definitely replaced the Parmigiani (this time with a new hat!) and probably the Chopard, with the Ming and maybe Lyrique. The Lederer is maybe my favorite here, but maybe because the previous 44mm version was one of the ugliest watches I've handled in person...at least compared to what was on the backside and this one is such a remarkable improvement.
Agreed on the Lederer. Lyrique, perhaps. Ming not being included was criminal.
Wondering why the dislike for Parmigiani ?
Enjoyed the Ballouard story. His upside down is amazing
It’s “relative dislike” not absolute. In the context of the choices available, is what I’m saying. Of course, that’s just one person’s opinion 🤷♂️😂