SDC Weekly 67; Emotions & Lessons from Watch Collecting
SDC Weekly 67; Emotions & Lessons from Watch Collecting
The First-Ever ‘Rainbow’ Daytona 16599, Phillips Auction Lies, Swiss Watch Industry August Update, Bloomberg on Rolex CPO, Rolex Production Numbers, Daniel Yergin on Oil and the entire 20th century
🚨 Welcome to another edition of SDC Weekly. Estimated reading time: ~35 mins
This week, we share the tale of the first-ever ‘Rainbow’ Daytona, examine Rolex’s CPO program, and review the latest Swiss watch export data. We also explore some lessons from watch collecting, look into some academic research on emotional dimensions of the hobby, and ponder the role of dreams in a collector’s journey. There’s a bonus section on oil’s influence in the 20th century too.
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🎈 Small stuff
🤡 Phillips NOS Nonsense
Please be advised, the above watch at this upcoming Phillips auction is being advertised as ‘New Old Stock’ (NOS) condition - this is a gross misrepresentation of the condition. To quote one of the most experienced collectors and appraisers I know:
“One look at the chamfer on the lugs tells you otherwise”
There are also several other close up images I’ve seen online showing enough signs of wear and tear to make one question the NOS claim. Fundamentally, NOS implies it left the factory this way - this is BS. This sort of lying should be called out and stopped. The watch, despite what I say here, seems to be in great condition - why do they need to go overboard and exaggerate like this? Do better, Phillips.
🌈 The First-Ever ‘Rainbow’ Daytona Ref. 16599
Story time!
In the pulsating heart of Hong Kong, circa 2008, when the green dial Mecca edition World Time Patek Philippe initially dropped, an epic tale began to unfold; one so rich in drama, so steeped in the peculiar intersection of luxury watches and human foible, that it could only be born from the reality of the world of rare watch dealing.
Eric Ku had just pulled off a coup. Five (yes, 5) of these coveted Mecca edition Pateks now in his possession. To celebrate this heist (all above board, but no less impressive), Eric whisked the Saudi connection who made it happen, off to Macau to celebrate.
Faster than you can say “double or nothing,” the Saudi contact vanished into the labyrinthine casinos, leaving Eric to play a game of hide-and-seek. Two days later, the Saudi bloke turned up, not basking in the glow of a winning streak, but sprawled on the floor of some godforsaken Macau flophouse… his pockets as empty as Elon’s soul.
The Saudi contact, it seemed, had a gambling problem. In fact, he had previously been yanked from his American studies by a father fed up with his son’s absurd ability to spin away money on the Roulette wheel. Awkward, but they parted ways, remained loosely in touch, and carried on with life.
Why am I telling you this? Well, it was through this connection with the Saudi gambler, that Eric found himself receiving a Rainbow Daytona image. This was two years before Rolex officially released such a creation to the masses.
At the time, the MyRolex system was consulted and the serial number assured the authenticity of this piece. In addition, the numbers above and below seemed to suggest this was possibly unique, but perhaps one of a tiny run of pieces issued to a Saudi royal.
At a mere $92,000, the deal was Eric’s for the taking. But even the great ones sometimes blink, and at $88,000, Eric’s final offer fell short. The Rainbow vanished, leaving only questions and what-ifs. By his own admission, this was his “one that got away” in that moment.
Two years passed, and Rolex ended up releasing the Rainbow Daytona to the world. Our unicorn, it seems, was merely ahead of its time.
So, it’s ~2017 now, and the world of watch dealing has gone digital. WhatsApp groups abuzz, the Rainbow resurfaces, but this time commanding a princely sum of $400,000!
Enter Justin Gruenberg, Eric’s partner. A deal is struck in the chat, victory seems assured, until... it’s not! Other dealers begin to circle like sharks in waters chummed with pure blood.
A runner is dispatched in the country of origin by Eric and Justin, and the watch secured. But then, literally in the dead of night, the seller appears at the runner’s door, threats of police action lead the runner to hand back the watch. Yet again, it slips through Eric’s fingers.
Or does it? There’s one final act thanks to Claude Sfeir. With a few well-placed words, Claude weaves a tale of CIA connections and no-fly lists that would make a Hollywood screenwriter weep with envy. The dealer who took the watch back from the runner, becomes too afraid of these threats from Claude, and the Rainbow returns to Eric (though at a slightly higher price).
Eric, triumphant at last, then sold the watch for low 7-figures. As he delivered the piece to the buyer at a luxury hotel in Bangkok, the first thing he did was change the strap for him. I’m told he then handed it over, and literally watched the buyer peel off the caseback sticker which was, at the time, still attached:
This November, the very same Rainbow Daytona prepares to cross the auction block at Phillips, consigned by the same person who bought it from Eric. Apparently he always uses these straps:
International Watchmaking Museum (MIH)
Quick story about the MIH - the same entity which runs the Gaïa Prize I’ve covered before. This year, the MIH is celebrating its 50th anniversary, and in honour of this milestone, the museum is undergoing a major renovation of its buildings and exhibition spaces. Aside from the obvious tax benefits, if you’re keen to support them, you can find more information in this document:
For the avoidance of doubt, this is not a paid ad. These fundraising activities were brought to my attention, seemed worthy of support, and given the relevance to my audience, I shared it.
📊 Rolex Production Numbers
A new Rolex Submariner book was released last week, and it contains a bunch of production data which @diversewatchcollector was kind enough to compile in a spreadsheet and share with me1. To show my gratitude for him sharing it with me, I promised to give his watch podcast a shout out; You’ll find their episodes here with links to your preferred podcast platform.
I’ve split it into two charts because the two ends of the spectrum make the scale too large to actually read the lower end of the data.
A few attempts at some regression analysis to determine the relationship between market price and production numbers yielded nothing significant - further reiterating how irrational the market is!
Anyway, not much to say here - just some data for the record.
💰 Bloomberg on Rolex CPO
Remember when Rolex launched its CPO program? December 2022. Yet, I saw an article yesterday on Bloomberg, with the most amusing title: “Rolex Will Now Sell You a Used Watch — But You’ll Pay a Price.”
The piece starts out with a scene at Bucherer’s Geneva store. On the ground floor, the Platona exists in a state of perpetual unavailability; But on the fourth floor, for the princely sum of 110,000 Swiss francs, you too can own a nearly identical watch that has graced someone else’s wrist. It’s almost poetic, this vertical journey from scarcity to abundance… each floor adding 9,000 francs to the price tag like some perverse elevator charge.