Always enjoy your observations Sir. Highly entertaining! 👑🫡👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 I expect to see a shocking number of micro brands (and not so micro brands) which popped up over the last few years, will go out of business as the market consolidates further. On the bright side...10, 15 years from now a number of models from these extinct brands will have a bit of a renaissance. Call it Pandy or “Pre AI” nostalgia. They will become highly coveted and the prices will go off the charts. 😁

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Dec 15, 2023Liked by kingflum

BLOCKBUSTER edition! And I mean it with no irony. Just chock full of yummy crunchy goodness of thought provoking ideas and insights and a joy to read (several sections several times) .... some juicy scandals or hints thereof and just stuff that so many more of us “collector philosophers” should be pondering 🤔

(And stop pulling those punches 🥊!) 😉🤣

Got it mate!!! Do it again! 😝

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Dec 13, 2023Liked by kingflum

What a treat and for less than the price of a cup of tea in Mayfair!! Really wonder what brand will hold the most values in this market and if it’s possible than within 2 years you could buy any watch you want at retail and that they will be cheaper on the grey market! I believe that like Hermes, Patek is the only brands who has so many famous clients that act as free ambassadors and it says a lot about their brand equity!

So much food for thought as always 🙏🏻

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Dec 21, 2023·edited Dec 21, 2023Liked by kingflum

Super interesting newsletter - thank you!

A couple of thoughts/observations...

Firstly, on the Casio, I really don't think it's remotely ridiculous - especially if one were to take into account the "discount" available to the winning bidder were they to be able to take advantage of the tax break. You really need to look at it in the context of the original Dream Project that launched in 2019 for $70,000 in an edition of 35 pieces and that sold out instantly.

Yes, there is a long way between $70k and $400k, but it's actually not quite as far as you might think, once you learn that an example of this watch sold on the secondary market in October 2020 for a smidgeon over 20 million Japanese Yen (this is the only example I am aware of for the original Dream Project selling on the secondary market). The Yen was "somewhat stronger" against the US dollar back then and on the day the watch sold, this converted to $192,000.

So, close to $200k for a watch of which there are 35 "out there", compared to $400k (or possibly as low as $250k depending on the tax status of the buyer) for a unique piece? Perhaps it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous now...

The second topic you raise that I'd like to comment on is that regarding Mr Dufour.

I have for over a decade now looked on with incredulity at the hagiographic manner in which Mr Dufour is treated by the wider watch community. Those who have purchased a Simplicity of course have a direct financial benefit in talking up his skills as a "watchmaker", and this includes individuals who run highly influential PR operations on behalf of the brands (let's not pretend they are remotely akin to independent journalists).

It's worth remembering that at least Casio are pretty much entirely vertically integrated. Mr Dufour? Well, he outsources the cases, the dials, the handsets, the crystals, the mainspring, the hairspring, the jewels, and the screws.

Think of it this way - when a Dufour is on your wrist, not a single visible element of the watch is actually made by him.

The Emperor's New Clothes analogy is absolutely perfect.

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Am I wrong in thinking that Phillips’ “fair market value” of the G-Shock is actually $105k, the mean average of the low and high estimates? So a little bit more tax saved? Still an insane thing to do if you ask me...

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