Always enjoy your observations Sir. Highly entertaining! 👑🫡👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 I expect to see a shocking number of micro brands (and not so micro brands) which popped up over the last few years, will go out of business as the market consolidates further. On the bright side...10, 15 years from now a number of models from these extinct brands will have a bit of a renaissance. Call it Pandy or “Pre AI” nostalgia. They will become highly coveted and the prices will go off the charts. 😁
Cheers mate! That notion of extinct brands being reincarnated is a fair one… not sure it’ll be as quick as 10-15 years… but I agree the nostalgia would drive it. Whether the values will follow, I really doubt that! Nice thought experiment though!
BLOCKBUSTER edition! And I mean it with no irony. Just chock full of yummy crunchy goodness of thought provoking ideas and insights and a joy to read (several sections several times) .... some juicy scandals or hints thereof and just stuff that so many more of us “collector philosophers” should be pondering 🤔
What a treat and for less than the price of a cup of tea in Mayfair!! Really wonder what brand will hold the most values in this market and if it’s possible than within 2 years you could buy any watch you want at retail and that they will be cheaper on the grey market! I believe that like Hermes, Patek is the only brands who has so many famous clients that act as free ambassadors and it says a lot about their brand equity!
True Mayfair is a bit overpriced, the opposite of this newsletter 😁!
I said “I wonder” about the below retail 😅. But so many watches (had a call from VC yesterday proposing me an overseas blue dial, that trades below retail now) that used to trade over retail are selling below (daydate, Patek complication, RO QP...).
For Hermès i meant that like Patek there iconic bags (Kelly, Birkin) are coveted and hard to get as much as Nautilus and they sell for at least twice their retail price on the grey market. And like Patek, Hermès doesn’t pay for any ambassadors.
Ah yes, fair enough. Brand building the hard way is something most brands have no clue about. They smelled profit and threw caution to the wind. The worst tactic was rushing to raise prices instead of just working hard to build a base of new collectors who would spend money even in a bad market. Morons.
Firstly, on the Casio, I really don't think it's remotely ridiculous - especially if one were to take into account the "discount" available to the winning bidder were they to be able to take advantage of the tax break. You really need to look at it in the context of the original Dream Project that launched in 2019 for $70,000 in an edition of 35 pieces and that sold out instantly.
Yes, there is a long way between $70k and $400k, but it's actually not quite as far as you might think, once you learn that an example of this watch sold on the secondary market in October 2020 for a smidgeon over 20 million Japanese Yen (this is the only example I am aware of for the original Dream Project selling on the secondary market). The Yen was "somewhat stronger" against the US dollar back then and on the day the watch sold, this converted to $192,000.
So, close to $200k for a watch of which there are 35 "out there", compared to $400k (or possibly as low as $250k depending on the tax status of the buyer) for a unique piece? Perhaps it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous now...
The second topic you raise that I'd like to comment on is that regarding Mr Dufour.
I have for over a decade now looked on with incredulity at the hagiographic manner in which Mr Dufour is treated by the wider watch community. Those who have purchased a Simplicity of course have a direct financial benefit in talking up his skills as a "watchmaker", and this includes individuals who run highly influential PR operations on behalf of the brands (let's not pretend they are remotely akin to independent journalists).
It's worth remembering that at least Casio are pretty much entirely vertically integrated. Mr Dufour? Well, he outsources the cases, the dials, the handsets, the crystals, the mainspring, the hairspring, the jewels, and the screws.
Think of it this way - when a Dufour is on your wrist, not a single visible element of the watch is actually made by him.
The Emperor's New Clothes analogy is absolutely perfect.
Gerald! Thank you for the thoughtful reflections, always great to hear from you.
On the G-Shock, thanks for the education, I agree with that context, it may not be as insane as it seemed - probably also helps to place that firmly in the "art" box, rather than the "watch" box. A Picasso painting is worth millions, but it is objectively just paint on a canvas. The value comes from the backstory, and this sits more in that camp than say, a Dufour? Or does it...
To the second point on Dufour... we are aligned, which is reassuring. By the way, I must reiterate that I really appreciate you taking the time to spell out the G-Shock background and educate not only me, but the readers who bother to read comments. I found you initially because of your willingness to educate, and I remain grateful for that. I know you're leaving Instagram, which is sad for those like me who appreciated your presence, but I do hope you find some outlet for this knowledge you have.
Am I wrong in thinking that Phillips’ “fair market value” of the G-Shock is actually $105k, the mean average of the low and high estimates? So a little bit more tax saved? Still an insane thing to do if you ask me...
Not at all, that would be my mistake entirely! Thanks for pointing it out - for posterity I'll just leave the error there, and your comment here... and the records will show I can't read properly!
Always enjoy your observations Sir. Highly entertaining! 👑🫡👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 I expect to see a shocking number of micro brands (and not so micro brands) which popped up over the last few years, will go out of business as the market consolidates further. On the bright side...10, 15 years from now a number of models from these extinct brands will have a bit of a renaissance. Call it Pandy or “Pre AI” nostalgia. They will become highly coveted and the prices will go off the charts. 😁
Cheers mate! That notion of extinct brands being reincarnated is a fair one… not sure it’ll be as quick as 10-15 years… but I agree the nostalgia would drive it. Whether the values will follow, I really doubt that! Nice thought experiment though!
Fair fair. ...and 13 year olds can’t tell analog time. Some of this predicted nostalgia might need to be “manufactured” 🍻
And where there’s a will... it’s usually driven by money 😂
BLOCKBUSTER edition! And I mean it with no irony. Just chock full of yummy crunchy goodness of thought provoking ideas and insights and a joy to read (several sections several times) .... some juicy scandals or hints thereof and just stuff that so many more of us “collector philosophers” should be pondering 🤔
(And stop pulling those punches 🥊!) 😉🤣
Got it mate!!! Do it again! 😝
😂 love the enthusiasm, appreciate you man 🤝😁
😉😘
What a treat and for less than the price of a cup of tea in Mayfair!! Really wonder what brand will hold the most values in this market and if it’s possible than within 2 years you could buy any watch you want at retail and that they will be cheaper on the grey market! I believe that like Hermes, Patek is the only brands who has so many famous clients that act as free ambassadors and it says a lot about their brand equity!
So much food for thought as always 🙏🏻
😂 Mayfair is overpriced tho 😜
2 years, everything below retail? That’s a tall order man!
What do you mean when you say “like Hermes” - you mean their brand equity in specifically in the leather goods space, or even watches?
True Mayfair is a bit overpriced, the opposite of this newsletter 😁!
I said “I wonder” about the below retail 😅. But so many watches (had a call from VC yesterday proposing me an overseas blue dial, that trades below retail now) that used to trade over retail are selling below (daydate, Patek complication, RO QP...).
For Hermès i meant that like Patek there iconic bags (Kelly, Birkin) are coveted and hard to get as much as Nautilus and they sell for at least twice their retail price on the grey market. And like Patek, Hermès doesn’t pay for any ambassadors.
Ah yes, fair enough. Brand building the hard way is something most brands have no clue about. They smelled profit and threw caution to the wind. The worst tactic was rushing to raise prices instead of just working hard to build a base of new collectors who would spend money even in a bad market. Morons.
Super interesting newsletter - thank you!
A couple of thoughts/observations...
Firstly, on the Casio, I really don't think it's remotely ridiculous - especially if one were to take into account the "discount" available to the winning bidder were they to be able to take advantage of the tax break. You really need to look at it in the context of the original Dream Project that launched in 2019 for $70,000 in an edition of 35 pieces and that sold out instantly.
Yes, there is a long way between $70k and $400k, but it's actually not quite as far as you might think, once you learn that an example of this watch sold on the secondary market in October 2020 for a smidgeon over 20 million Japanese Yen (this is the only example I am aware of for the original Dream Project selling on the secondary market). The Yen was "somewhat stronger" against the US dollar back then and on the day the watch sold, this converted to $192,000.
So, close to $200k for a watch of which there are 35 "out there", compared to $400k (or possibly as low as $250k depending on the tax status of the buyer) for a unique piece? Perhaps it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous now...
The second topic you raise that I'd like to comment on is that regarding Mr Dufour.
I have for over a decade now looked on with incredulity at the hagiographic manner in which Mr Dufour is treated by the wider watch community. Those who have purchased a Simplicity of course have a direct financial benefit in talking up his skills as a "watchmaker", and this includes individuals who run highly influential PR operations on behalf of the brands (let's not pretend they are remotely akin to independent journalists).
It's worth remembering that at least Casio are pretty much entirely vertically integrated. Mr Dufour? Well, he outsources the cases, the dials, the handsets, the crystals, the mainspring, the hairspring, the jewels, and the screws.
Think of it this way - when a Dufour is on your wrist, not a single visible element of the watch is actually made by him.
The Emperor's New Clothes analogy is absolutely perfect.
Gerald! Thank you for the thoughtful reflections, always great to hear from you.
On the G-Shock, thanks for the education, I agree with that context, it may not be as insane as it seemed - probably also helps to place that firmly in the "art" box, rather than the "watch" box. A Picasso painting is worth millions, but it is objectively just paint on a canvas. The value comes from the backstory, and this sits more in that camp than say, a Dufour? Or does it...
To the second point on Dufour... we are aligned, which is reassuring. By the way, I must reiterate that I really appreciate you taking the time to spell out the G-Shock background and educate not only me, but the readers who bother to read comments. I found you initially because of your willingness to educate, and I remain grateful for that. I know you're leaving Instagram, which is sad for those like me who appreciated your presence, but I do hope you find some outlet for this knowledge you have.
Happy holidays!
Faheem
Am I wrong in thinking that Phillips’ “fair market value” of the G-Shock is actually $105k, the mean average of the low and high estimates? So a little bit more tax saved? Still an insane thing to do if you ask me...
Not at all, that would be my mistake entirely! Thanks for pointing it out - for posterity I'll just leave the error there, and your comment here... and the records will show I can't read properly!
Happy holidays man!