SDC Weekly 31; Facts vs opinions; AP scandal in Spain
Rolex online shopping, Tuna Auctions, How the world got better in 2023, Mearsheimer on Gaza, The case for late bloomers, Benford's law of controversy and the Depressive Realism Hypothesis.
Hello 👋 and welcome back to the SDC Weekly. You’ll find the older editions of SDC Weekly here. If you’re a free subscriber, you can now access last week’s edition.
You might be wondering why this is a day early… I wrapped up this edition on Monday evening, because I will be travelling today. Since Murphy’s law suggests something newsworthy will inevitably occur before going live on Wednesday, I decided to release it a day early instead of leaving a window for Murphy!
Let’s dig in.
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⚡ Facts vs. opinions
How come so many seemingly intelligent people seem to hold rather stupid beliefs? After the discussion about Journe last week, I had several people respond to me claiming I appear to have a vested interest in protecting the brand from harm, simply because I own some Journe watches. They talked about how there are many reports about some sort of wrongdoing, and so I asked every single one of these people to provide me with any factual evidence which underpinned the beliefs they held. What did I receive in return? Nothing.
It turns out, this should not be surprising at all. A 2013 study measured people’s intelligence using a cognitive reflection test1 and found liberals and conservatives scored roughly equally on average - but the most interesting finding was how the highest scoring individuals in both groups were the most likely to display political bias when assessing the truth in various political statements.
Another study which was later replicated to refute claims of invalidity, found subjects who scored highest in numeracy had the ability to objectively evaluate statistical data when informed it was related to a skin rash treatment… however, when the same data were presented as relating to gun control - a polarising subject - those same folks who scored highest on numeracy exhibited the highest bias.
This correlation between intelligence and ideological bias is seemingly robust, having been tested and proven in many other studies, such as this one, this one, and this one. So revisiting the opening question - why are intelligent people so prone to bias? The key is to understand the meaning of intelligence first.
In AI research there’s a concept called the “orthogonality thesis:”
Intelligence and final goals are orthogonal axes along which possible agents can freely vary. In other words, more or less any level of intelligence could in principle be combined with more or less any final goal.
In other words, people can’t just be intelligent - they are intelligent with regards to some field. The word intelligence derives from the Latin nouns intelligentia or intellēctus, which in turn stem from the verb intelligere, to comprehend or perceive. Clearly, one can comprehend or perceive any number of topics, but truly excel at few. As the orthogonality thesis explains, the goal selection is separate from the means by which the goal is pursued - therefore, the intelligence with which a goal is pursued says nothing about the goal itself.
Rationality is the quality of being based on clear thought and reason, or of making decisions based on clear thought and reason - this is intelligence with a goal of finding objective truth. This means, we can have supposedly intelligent people who select some other goal to pursue, and it results in what I observed with the Journe saga. Their line of questioning appears to be one with a goal of finding fault; the absence of factual evidence is perhaps overridden by their bias against the man or the brand.
These observations are closely tied to the Dunning–Kruger effect, which is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities. This bias is often misunderstood as being about general overconfidence of people with low intelligence, but to be clear, it is more about specific overconfidence of people unskilled at a particular task, or uninformed about a particular topic.
None of this should be surprising, since our intelligence as a species has evolved as a tool for optimising personal well-being, social status, procreation and tribal inclusion, as opposed to the pursuit of objective truth. As I wrote in a previous edition of SDC:
…tribalism remains a key part of our DNA. Humans today are still susceptible to the same sort of behaviour; we inherently want to belong, and going against our own tribe triggers a certain fear within us. This fear is less existential, and perhaps best described as intellectual or moral. Today, tribes are rarely defined by the communities we live in or the religions we follow (though these do apply!); instead, they are created in our minds, and we adjust our behaviours accordingly.
By virtue of being a social species, it is intelligent for us to convince ourselves of irrational beliefs if holding those beliefs will benefit our social status or well-being.
A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep.
Saul Bellow
All of this leaves us with two general conclusions: unintelligent people tend to be easily misled by other people, and intelligent people tend to be misled by themselves. In the world of watches, both of these apply, but we will focus on the latter here. These folks are able to convince themselves of whatever they want to believe, instead of things which are objectively and factually true - their strong reasoning abilities translate into a strong ability to rationalise too.
It might seem easy enough to avoid such delusions by educating ourselves about cognitive biases or logical fallacies, but research suggests teaching people about misinformation can cause them to simply disregard facts which they don’t like as misinformation, and teaching people logic often results in them selectively applying that logic to justify the beliefs they prefer.
This is unsurprising too, since it is to be expected when knowledge and reasoning are the tools which intelligent people use to fool themselves… giving them more knowledge and reasoning will simply make them better able to: fool themselves. TO be clear, I am not excluding myself from any of this… As an SDC-favourite Daniel Kahneman famously put it: “I’ve studied cognitive biases my whole life and I’m no better at avoiding them.”
Motivated reasoning is what happens when we use our intelligence and learning to pursue irrational goals. Clearly, then, the problem is not with our intelligence or learning, but our goals… and as we said above, most thinking goals are not in pursuit of the objective truth but to justify what we want to be true. In the case of the Journe rumours, there is no ‘winner’ if he is found guilty of something - yet, so many are choosing to hold these ‘guilty beliefs’ without any proof.
I have chosen to apply Occam’s Razor instead: if you have two competing ideas to explain the same phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one. Did Journe say something heinous, and have a whole dinner party of people cover it up? Or are the malicious parties spreading egregious rumours to impact a market which they stand to benefit from? Or… is it just a case of broken-telephone, where some inert statement has been blown out of proportion by woke bros? It could be any of these, but allowing the available facts to guide you seems like a reasonable approach.
Research has found curiosity to be the strongest countermeasure against bias when we are using our intelligence in the pursuit of objective truth. Curiosity is the desire to learn or know something - so of course, this can only happen when you know a little bit about it, and this drives a desire to know more. Beyond curiosity, we also need humility to counteract our egos. Since we all derive self-worth from being smart and being right, we become unwilling to admit when we are wrong, nor are we in a hurry to change our minds. As a result, without humility, we will choose to protect our identity and self-worth, but stay wrong!
In many ways, focusing on staying curious will naturally make us more humble, just because it reveals how little we actually know… and in turn, being humble will make us more curious, because that will helps us acknowledge we need to learn more. With that in mind, let’s round off with some specific points for watch collectors:
Navigating watch collecting with a dash of cognitive spice:
Confirmation Bias and Watch Preferences:
Watch collectors often stick to what they know and love, just like a well-worn leather strap. So be aware of confirmation bias – the tendency to favour information which confirms existing preferences or brand loyalties.
Social Status and wrist swagger:
Ever notice how some watch enthusiasts flaunt their timepieces as if they’re strutting down a horological runway? Now that new studies suggest intelligent individuals might choose watches not just for their features but as a subtle status signal, keep this in mind as you encounter others and more importantly, when you are making purchase decisions.
Groupthink in watch circles:
Watch communities can sometimes resemble a Resonance movement in action, ticking in unison. Guard against groupthink; challenge the norm and let your collection be a rebellion against horological conformity. Do you really want a collection which is just a clone of everyone else’s?
Curiosity, the spice of watch exploration:
If your curiosity were a watch complication, it would be a rattrapante. Embrace the diverse – dive into styles, complications, and histories. After all, a curious collector is like a horological detective, always on the hunt for the next wristy mystery2.
Humility in watch decision-making:
Admitting you might be wrong in the world of watch collecting is like admitting that sometimes, quartz can be charming too. I have said for a while now, Journe’s Elegante is one of the best watches I own3. Humility is key; be open to the idea that your taste may evolve. It's not about being right; it's about wearing a watch that feels right, even if nobody else agrees.
Objectivity in the watch review realm:
Watch reviews are, by definition, subjective. If you observed all the mainstream publications receiving gifts from the brands over the holiday season, you will realise just how difficult it must be for mainstream journalists to remain impartial. They’ve gotta eat too, so take it with a pinch of salt. Be a critical horologist; question reviews, consider diverse perspectives, and beware of biases. Just because a review sparkles like a polished bezel doesn't mean it's free from hidden scratches.
In our world of watch collecting, understanding and navigating cognitive biases can lead to a more authentic and diverse collection. As Daniel Kahneman wisely notes, “The combination of an individual’s intelligence and their underlying biases can lead to sophisticated self-deception.” By fostering curiosity, embracing humility, and critically evaluating choices, collectors can ensure that their horological pursuits are driven by genuine passion rather than unconscious influences. This mindful approach not only enhances the pleasure of collecting but also ensures the curated collection stands the test of trends and time. After all, it's not just about the watches; it's about the enduring journey of curating a collection that truly resonates with personal taste and values.
Audemars Piguet's Spanish Saga
This may not be news to many, but it was news to me so I decided it was newsletter worthy. You may already have seen at least two AP Boutiques in Spain are temporarily closed
The question is: why? A subscriber and friend was able to answer this with firsthand information from an AP employee. Turns out, the GM and almost all boutique staff have been let go, so they basically can’t open because they have no staff to run them!
My source explained this took place because of some suspicious activity involving AP hype pieces. It sounds very similar to this old story (full complaint here).
Whistleblowers “uncovered a Scheme of illegal activity. They discovered that the Scheme was being perpetrated by a coworker and multiple management-level employees, including the CEO.” The complaint continues… “the heart of the Scheme was a conspiracy by the Defendants to illegally sell Rolex watches to foreign grey market resellers in order to enrich themselves. In order to further the Scheme, the Defendants conspired to violate numerous federal and state laws including but not limited to racketeering, money laundering, mail, wire, immigration, and credit card fraud, and Illinois sales tax evasion.”
To be clear, I have no details about the finer details in the AP case - so it may be all, some, or none of the above - but the specific incident my source has raised was the sale of a Royal Oak Skeleton to a client with no prior purchase history, which then ended up on the grey market within two months of the original purchase. AP discovered this because the person who bought it on the grey market took the watch to a boutique in another country to register ownership… and this gave rise to further investigation… which led to staff being let go, and the boutiques being shut.
Perhaps AP found evidence of wrongdoing and are conducting internal investigations, or perhaps it was a clear case of wrongdoing which needed no further investigation. It is also possible this is all incorrect, and AP is simply planning to shut down these stores permanently. I am simply sharing the story as received… lucky for me, I have the luxury of being able to share rumours and stories which may turn out to be false, and you have the curiosity to discern the facts from opinions, and pursue objective truth 😉.
📌 Links of interest
🙈 Just a couple of weeks after being fined by the French regulatory for preventing authorised dealers selling new watches online, Rolex dropped this video showing a pre-owned Rolex being added to an online cart!
⭐ Rolex's new Day-Date commemorates a partnership as it enters its 15th year in 2024. It is a violin, not a cello!
🐟 You think watch auctions are insane? Tokyo’s top (238kg) tuna for the new year sells for ¥114.2 million ($788,440). The top tuna’s price this year is still far off from the 2019 record of ¥333.6 million.
📈 177 ways the world got better in 2023.
🤖 The man who made robots dance now wants them to think for themselves.
💀 Prof. John Mearsheimer’s take on Gaza.
💩 The Craziest S**t that Happened on Planes in 2023.
📚 Aristotle’s 10 Rules for a Good Life.
👴🏻 The case for late bloomers.
🤿 Pretend you’re Jacques Cousteau: The most stunning deep-sea footage of 2023.
🚂 The most exciting new trains coming in 2024.
🎯 Tetris has finally been beaten.
📺 Netflix considers adding in-app purchases and ads to games.
🛰️ Starlink launched “cellphone towers in space” for use with LTE phones.
🥽 Apple Vision Pro headset launches in U.S. on Feb. 2, preorders begin Jan. 19.
🤡 In May 1968, far-left student protests in Paris sparked a period of civil unrest across France. The recorded graffiti is like a glimpse into a secret 1968 version of the OG Twitter. Some favorites:
“I suspect God of being a leftist intellectual.”
You will end up dying of comfort.
SEX: It’s okay, says Mao, as long as you don’t do it too often.
People who work get bored when they don’t work. People who don’t work never get bored.
Art is dead, don’t consume its corpse.
When the last sociologist has been hung with the guts of the last bureaucrat, will we still have “problems”?
Please leave the Communist Party as clean on leaving it as you would like to find it on entering.”
End note
In case you missed it, I shared this post on Sunday:
Here’s a question from the post to whet your appetite:
Before you continue, imagine you're a wine collector, or someone who buys numerous bottles and keeps them around for a while before drinking them. How much would it cost you to drink a bottle of wine that you bought many years ago for $10, but which is now worth $100?
The world is filled with differing opinions and the watch world is no exception. How else is it possible to have such a myriad of choice from so many brands who continue to be successful? This situation offers a valuable insight: everyone is correct, and everyone is wrong. It just depends who you ask, how you ask, and when you ask them.
One you realise you - the curious, honest, well-intentioned, objective, fair person that you are - will inevitably hold certain world views that are incomplete or incorrect, you will hopefully also to realise there is room for more understanding and empathy when it comes to others views which do not align with your own. As Daniel Kahneman says, it is always easier to identify flaws in other people, not ourselves.
This isn’t surprising, since we all have unique life experiences. What you have seen or heard firsthand, is ‘entirely irrefutable’ even if it seems completely absurd to anyone else. This actually happens to us as individuals; One of the most common themes for me, is recalling all the things my parents said when I was a young adult, followed by “when you have kids you will understand.” I “knew” I was right at the time I disagreed with them… I felt they were being irrational… and yet, today, I am in full agreement with their decades-old advice and counsel.
The other thing about our opinions is how much they are driven by our desires and affiliations. If you’re a huge Journe collector who owns 50 watches from the brand and has enjoyed many memorable experiences with the brand over the years, you will naturally be averse to believing anything negative about the man or the brand - because such negativity will force you to change your beliefs or alter your morals to allow these beliefs to endure. Conversely, if you have been shunned by the brand, failed to get an allocation for several years, can’t afford one, or had a bad experience in one of more of their boutiques, you will almost take comfort in hearing negative news about the brand!
In psychology, the depressive realism hypothesis, posits that depressed people are often more accurate in their perceptions and judgments than non-depressed people are. Most of us, however, are the opposite: we hold delusions with affirm our incorrect world views instead, because these delusions support our incentives to make certain decisions (i.e., the Journe hater concluding the man is a bad person).
“Until we know we are wrong, being wrong feels exactly like being right”
―Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error
Benford's law of controversy, as expressed by the astrophysicist and science fiction author Gregory Benford in 1980, states: Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. It is probably more accurate to call this a heuristic for analysis, since this is not exactly a ‘statement of fact’ - but it is still a useful concept to frame human tendency, and if nothing else, it can help us become aware of our own counterproductive thinking when emotions run amok.
So much of the world is driven towards binary thinking; Yet, so much of the world exists not in black and white, but in shades of grey. It behooves us to remind ourselves of this at every opportunity.
Until next time!
F
🔮Bonus link: 2023, in 7 minutes
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The cognitive reflection test (CRT) is a task designed to measure a person's tendency to override an incorrect "gut" response and engage in further reflection to find a correct answer.
I laughed as I wrote this… it is cringey I admit, but I thought it was worth a laugh for you too!
I have been thinking about a full post on the Elegante - let me know if this is something of interest.
Well, we’ve spoken before about coming to the realization that “ (Almost) everything I thought I knew is wrong” and I’m relieved/glad to have fallen to the bottom of the slide in the graph you presented, past the embarrassment and at the point of having the humility to examine ideas from opposing views and continually amazed at how often I continue to have to reexamine my beliefs.
Very well researched and written piece here that I hope will give pause to many. Also good tie in to the watch collecting community although the bigger picture looms large over much more than our little niche.
Lastly, as relativity early collectors of the Elegante (my wife and partner has 3) I would definitely be 💯 👍🏼on the deeper dive!
Thank you for another thought provoking treatise! 🙏🏻☝🏻
The hype free navigating biases pieces you write I think are always helpful to collectors both new and old.
Wei koh/sjx/dillon bhatt/wrong wrist rehash, hype, and regurgitate every release and every brand under the guise of being collectors so they can like and praise everything. Which can also be true, but it can also be true theres financial incentive somewhere.
I think you made the point a few weeks back, and I checked recently. Not trying to d*ck on them, but more an eye opener to the market. Furlan marri’s latest release still a month later has not fully sold out. So it’s been a month and they still have not sold 900 pieces at $3k. Similarly with ming, they had limited editions of 25 pieces released at DWW, these were priced after 25k and 50k i believe, and these have not sold out over a month later.
Lasty, purely anecdotally, some friends who bought literally everything that was plugged on social media this year now have regrets that their collection is filled with hyped rubbish. And all combined they could have instead bought a quality piece instead.
Lastly, whilst the elegantes lists remain closed and difficult to obtain at retail. Would be very interested in a deep dive. Similarly would be interested in such a thing for some of the other innovative pieces too.