Sotheby’s $1Bn Deal, Bremont's Woes, AP Shenanigans, What Exactly is Studio Underd0g?, Chronext goes bust, Middle finger history, Seinfeld Economics, EsperLuxe Debunking, and Mario de Andrade.
I spent whole morning (including links), soon I’ll just not have time for books :)
I don’t think anybody should overthink Underdog, watermelon for example is an extremely fun watch, just enjoy it (I would say it about more things in life though), especially in summer and with nice tan :D
Excellent article about Russian conflict, I wish more people could see this situation as it is (or I am biased hahah).
Well, no! It is the normal version which I had to do more quickly 😂
Thanks for reading!
On the watermel0n, understood, and seems to be why they are so successful - more people like you, less cycnics and critics like me. Seems to make sense, and good for the world!
As for Russia - indeed, you are biased, but that doesn't make you wrong. I just wish more people would engage their brains more often, that's all.
Having gotten quite momentarily irritated just recently when composing a comment to this very same newsletter consisting of a few short paragraphs and somehow having it disappear just before I hit send , I can’t even begin to imagine the extent of your probable dismay at losing this entire and immense composition and having to re-do it! 🤯
Anyway the culture wars and poem/prose by Mario de Andrade touched me the most
Also, maybe because it’s late at night and brain is winding down for the day but I don’t understand the Monte Hall problem (yet) ….seems like it should still be just 50/50 😵💫😳
In simple terms… when you’re given three options, you see them as being 1/3 probability each, correct?
When the reveal occurs, it shows 1/3 which is NOT a winning outcome. Now, with hindsight, the two you didn’t choose, capture 2/3 probability, and your choice captures 1/3 probability.
This means, the remaining choice is 2/3 probability (because the other one is deleted)
Well it’s a closed system, and the discarded option exists in this closed system… if, for example, you were told “there is a new shuffle” after the revelation, then it would become 50:50
I found your thoughts on Studiounderdog a bit curious. I guess you are considering them under the mindset of a “serious collector” and I can see where you are coming from there, but I find that to be a weird position to view them from (assuming “Serious Collector falls in line with your overall thoughts on luxury watchmaking you put out there over the last few weeks).
While I’m sure there is room for the serious collector in SU tent, I don’t think their watches are for them. And while they may not be pushing watchmaking as a whole forward, I think they’ve done a lot for that more specialized segment of the market that they play in and I’m not sure the serious watch collector is really the right mindset to consider their output under.
Whenever something is described as “curious” - even by me - this is usually a polite substitute for something more specific 😂 … feel free to call me a moron btw, you’d be right fairly often.
That said, I’d like to know what mindset you think is the right mindset to consider their output under? I describe it as a fun watch, playful and interesting to some, but not a serious watch for serious collectors. Is this incorrect, you think?
Or are you saying it should be pitted against all the other “shitters” like Furlan Marri, Anoma and Baltic etc, and then judged on it’s merits in that league because “it’s not a serious haute horology piece” is a bit of a no-shit-Sherlock thing to say? (Perhaps you’re right, if so!)
I think it’s a bit harder for people who are collecting in a different echelon of watches to properly contextualize what a company like SU does for people who collect more regularly in that range.
I’m not saying someone who has a Journe can’t properly appreciate a SU or that it isn’t valid to look at the brand the way you have, I’m just not sure how relevant that is to what SU is offering if that makes sense? I think you are right, that is a distraction for a certain subset of collectors, but I’m not sure a sub $600 distraction, is much of one, when it’s at least a couple times less than the next service charge for one’s Lange.
When I look at other forums, where the focus is on sub $2k watches, I see they have driven a lot of joy and interest and as fun as it is to look at these more critically, I’m not sure what the point of it is. Then again…there isn’t much point to any of this regardless, so it’s probably a silly argument. 🤪
I think you’re on to something here that I’ve been struggling to crystallize all day. So of it ties back to that “Decay of Luxury Watchmaking” article that I’ve been chewing on. I’m just getting over a bout of Covid and have the attention span of a golden retriever puppy at the moment but want to come back to this.
Things I want to unpack with this…
1. I have an instant, kneejerk negative response when I hear the word “luxury’ thrown about.
2. One thing about the Underd0g watches I find endearing is their use of typography. There’s a lot of revered watches out there with typography that would get beat up in a first-year wall crit.
One of the biggest outcomes following that post in particular, was: my own view of the word “luxury” and its use (even by me) has been recalibrated.
I haven’t figured out what to do about it, but I’m battling with the nomenclature in this field now, precisely because luxury had been given too broad a berth. If nothing else, maybe it’s a switch to “expensive” for the most part, because for a lot of this stuff that’s all it really is.
I look forward to your treatise - and sorry to hear about your illness, get well soon!
Thoughts on the virtual fashion and potentially for virtual watches: I do not foresee virtual items gaining the sustainable traction required for it to be anything more than a high priced novelty in a particular point in time. My prediction is this will fade and drop off and many years from now we will look back and wonder why people purchased these. The lure for someone to buy the DG fashion is the physical pieces accompanying the digital only pieces. The entire package with the digital only offers the experiences and exclusive access. It becomes a status symbol, much like a luxury belief. In fact perhaps, owning the virtual reality dress and showing it is as valuable and useful as the real dress is a luxury belief.
But that exclusive access and experience offered by DG in their offering has a time horizon on it, meaning the digital only will become a jpeg file worth nothing more than a screen shot saved to ones photos to never be seen again once it no longer provides access, much like the QR code ticket on your phone you delete once the flight or movie is over.
More and more I tend to see a return to the brick and mortar for specific items over the online only marketplace. A desire to own the physical over the digital. We may be nearing or at an inflection point where the market has found what products translate to online only, digital only and those that require a brick and mortar experience. Time will tell if my observations hold. I believe watches will have online presence but will not make the jump like DG to a digital version for VR. After all Panerai offers experience watches without the digital version or NFT attached. I do see block chain offering a solution to chain of custody, service records etc.. and authenticity for many items, but it may also be too big of a barrier of entry on many items for it to become mainstream on many of the most useful assets. (That’s another conversation)
Studio Underdog: They fit a need in pushing the watch world forward just not in a movement or technology way but in the attraction of the younger, newer enthusiasts becoming collectors and adoring their naked wrist with a mechancial device in a way other brands have not because their aesthetic was a bit too traditional. The Pumpkin and Watermelon and Pizza dials are trendy and are more akin to fast fashion in my humble opinion. They gain attention and draw people in who otherwise may not step outside their Garmin or Apple watch or no watch. I also see SU gaining the eyes of younger people with their series 02 that are bit more hip without the pepperonis on the dial. SU has captured the attention of people, like my youngest sibling, who is not a watch person, works in tech and when he asks about watches it is because somehow SU has a dial and watch that he found more attractive at a decent price to him than all the others. There a have been goofy, fad, extremely trendy, dials by many others that are out of vogue almost as fast as they were produced (Black Panther AP, comes to mind). Perhaps over time SU will have the capital and ability to add more to the world of horological advancement than dials that attract new customers to the world of watches. — this section of the post does have me on a tangential rabbit hole now, and I worry deep this rabbit hole goes —
When you and I get into dialogues in the comments, they can become as long as a piece of string.
On digital and virtual - I agree with the framing, but I disagree that we will see the shift away from digital ‘soon’ - in fact, brands haven’t even begun to take advantage of the positive aspects. Now if you’re saying they will simply avoid it altogether, I think this is a mistake.
This is because - and this leads nicely into the Studio Underdog topic - those who ‘get into it’ via brands like SU, will eventually seek more. These people will be easier to reach via digital channels. Expecting these middle-ground buyers who have not YET fallen deeply in love with the analogue appeal of watches (and pens and all the rest) the way we have, requires some sort of bridge. A digital bridge.
I shall not labour the point, because I think we agree on the theme and palette, and there’s no need to debate the various shades of red 😂
Are there currently any ceramic parts within Rolex movements (apart from maybe ceramic balls for the rotor bearing)? Maybe we're on the cusp of a new generation of Rolex movements where we start to see ceramic gears, kinda like the ceramic wheels and pawls in the modern IWC Pellaton automatic movements.
Don't know for sure, but I think there aren't - and so, yes, that would be pretty cool, because they'd do it in a 'bulletproof way' which I'd love to see.
And this is the quick version? 🫠 Jeeeeeez
But thanks, great job :)
I spent whole morning (including links), soon I’ll just not have time for books :)
I don’t think anybody should overthink Underdog, watermelon for example is an extremely fun watch, just enjoy it (I would say it about more things in life though), especially in summer and with nice tan :D
Excellent article about Russian conflict, I wish more people could see this situation as it is (or I am biased hahah).
Well, no! It is the normal version which I had to do more quickly 😂
Thanks for reading!
On the watermel0n, understood, and seems to be why they are so successful - more people like you, less cycnics and critics like me. Seems to make sense, and good for the world!
As for Russia - indeed, you are biased, but that doesn't make you wrong. I just wish more people would engage their brains more often, that's all.
Another semi humongous kaleidoscope of a post!
Having gotten quite momentarily irritated just recently when composing a comment to this very same newsletter consisting of a few short paragraphs and somehow having it disappear just before I hit send , I can’t even begin to imagine the extent of your probable dismay at losing this entire and immense composition and having to re-do it! 🤯
Anyway the culture wars and poem/prose by Mario de Andrade touched me the most
Also, maybe because it’s late at night and brain is winding down for the day but I don’t understand the Monte Hall problem (yet) ….seems like it should still be just 50/50 😵💫😳
Cheers Bruce!
In simple terms… when you’re given three options, you see them as being 1/3 probability each, correct?
When the reveal occurs, it shows 1/3 which is NOT a winning outcome. Now, with hindsight, the two you didn’t choose, capture 2/3 probability, and your choice captures 1/3 probability.
This means, the remaining choice is 2/3 probability (because the other one is deleted)
So should you switch?
Obviously.
It’s conditional probability basically as it assumes that the previous event (discarded card) has an impact on future events
Well it’s a closed system, and the discarded option exists in this closed system… if, for example, you were told “there is a new shuffle” after the revelation, then it would become 50:50
I get the idea in theory, but knowing that there are 2 left I still think I have 50:50 chance to get the right card….im so confused
Freeze the probability in the beginning. Your choice, and the single revelation, does not change the frozen probability.
Makes sense 🫠
😵💫🫥🫠
I found your thoughts on Studiounderdog a bit curious. I guess you are considering them under the mindset of a “serious collector” and I can see where you are coming from there, but I find that to be a weird position to view them from (assuming “Serious Collector falls in line with your overall thoughts on luxury watchmaking you put out there over the last few weeks).
While I’m sure there is room for the serious collector in SU tent, I don’t think their watches are for them. And while they may not be pushing watchmaking as a whole forward, I think they’ve done a lot for that more specialized segment of the market that they play in and I’m not sure the serious watch collector is really the right mindset to consider their output under.
Whenever something is described as “curious” - even by me - this is usually a polite substitute for something more specific 😂 … feel free to call me a moron btw, you’d be right fairly often.
That said, I’d like to know what mindset you think is the right mindset to consider their output under? I describe it as a fun watch, playful and interesting to some, but not a serious watch for serious collectors. Is this incorrect, you think?
Or are you saying it should be pitted against all the other “shitters” like Furlan Marri, Anoma and Baltic etc, and then judged on it’s merits in that league because “it’s not a serious haute horology piece” is a bit of a no-shit-Sherlock thing to say? (Perhaps you’re right, if so!)
I think it’s a bit harder for people who are collecting in a different echelon of watches to properly contextualize what a company like SU does for people who collect more regularly in that range.
I’m not saying someone who has a Journe can’t properly appreciate a SU or that it isn’t valid to look at the brand the way you have, I’m just not sure how relevant that is to what SU is offering if that makes sense? I think you are right, that is a distraction for a certain subset of collectors, but I’m not sure a sub $600 distraction, is much of one, when it’s at least a couple times less than the next service charge for one’s Lange.
When I look at other forums, where the focus is on sub $2k watches, I see they have driven a lot of joy and interest and as fun as it is to look at these more critically, I’m not sure what the point of it is. Then again…there isn’t much point to any of this regardless, so it’s probably a silly argument. 🤪
😂 hey I enjoy my shitters as much as the next guy. Hence my comment about it being worth about the price of an alligator strap, and that’s ok!
And I say this as somebody who shares your views on Furlan Marri…
😂
I think you’re on to something here that I’ve been struggling to crystallize all day. So of it ties back to that “Decay of Luxury Watchmaking” article that I’ve been chewing on. I’m just getting over a bout of Covid and have the attention span of a golden retriever puppy at the moment but want to come back to this.
Things I want to unpack with this…
1. I have an instant, kneejerk negative response when I hear the word “luxury’ thrown about.
2. One thing about the Underd0g watches I find endearing is their use of typography. There’s a lot of revered watches out there with typography that would get beat up in a first-year wall crit.
One of the biggest outcomes following that post in particular, was: my own view of the word “luxury” and its use (even by me) has been recalibrated.
I haven’t figured out what to do about it, but I’m battling with the nomenclature in this field now, precisely because luxury had been given too broad a berth. If nothing else, maybe it’s a switch to “expensive” for the most part, because for a lot of this stuff that’s all it really is.
I look forward to your treatise - and sorry to hear about your illness, get well soon!
Absolutely brillant
This NL always makes my brain tingling
Appreciate you taking the time A! Thanks for reading 😃
Thoughts on the virtual fashion and potentially for virtual watches: I do not foresee virtual items gaining the sustainable traction required for it to be anything more than a high priced novelty in a particular point in time. My prediction is this will fade and drop off and many years from now we will look back and wonder why people purchased these. The lure for someone to buy the DG fashion is the physical pieces accompanying the digital only pieces. The entire package with the digital only offers the experiences and exclusive access. It becomes a status symbol, much like a luxury belief. In fact perhaps, owning the virtual reality dress and showing it is as valuable and useful as the real dress is a luxury belief.
But that exclusive access and experience offered by DG in their offering has a time horizon on it, meaning the digital only will become a jpeg file worth nothing more than a screen shot saved to ones photos to never be seen again once it no longer provides access, much like the QR code ticket on your phone you delete once the flight or movie is over.
More and more I tend to see a return to the brick and mortar for specific items over the online only marketplace. A desire to own the physical over the digital. We may be nearing or at an inflection point where the market has found what products translate to online only, digital only and those that require a brick and mortar experience. Time will tell if my observations hold. I believe watches will have online presence but will not make the jump like DG to a digital version for VR. After all Panerai offers experience watches without the digital version or NFT attached. I do see block chain offering a solution to chain of custody, service records etc.. and authenticity for many items, but it may also be too big of a barrier of entry on many items for it to become mainstream on many of the most useful assets. (That’s another conversation)
Studio Underdog: They fit a need in pushing the watch world forward just not in a movement or technology way but in the attraction of the younger, newer enthusiasts becoming collectors and adoring their naked wrist with a mechancial device in a way other brands have not because their aesthetic was a bit too traditional. The Pumpkin and Watermelon and Pizza dials are trendy and are more akin to fast fashion in my humble opinion. They gain attention and draw people in who otherwise may not step outside their Garmin or Apple watch or no watch. I also see SU gaining the eyes of younger people with their series 02 that are bit more hip without the pepperonis on the dial. SU has captured the attention of people, like my youngest sibling, who is not a watch person, works in tech and when he asks about watches it is because somehow SU has a dial and watch that he found more attractive at a decent price to him than all the others. There a have been goofy, fad, extremely trendy, dials by many others that are out of vogue almost as fast as they were produced (Black Panther AP, comes to mind). Perhaps over time SU will have the capital and ability to add more to the world of horological advancement than dials that attract new customers to the world of watches. — this section of the post does have me on a tangential rabbit hole now, and I worry deep this rabbit hole goes —
When you and I get into dialogues in the comments, they can become as long as a piece of string.
On digital and virtual - I agree with the framing, but I disagree that we will see the shift away from digital ‘soon’ - in fact, brands haven’t even begun to take advantage of the positive aspects. Now if you’re saying they will simply avoid it altogether, I think this is a mistake.
This is because - and this leads nicely into the Studio Underdog topic - those who ‘get into it’ via brands like SU, will eventually seek more. These people will be easier to reach via digital channels. Expecting these middle-ground buyers who have not YET fallen deeply in love with the analogue appeal of watches (and pens and all the rest) the way we have, requires some sort of bridge. A digital bridge.
I shall not labour the point, because I think we agree on the theme and palette, and there’s no need to debate the various shades of red 😂
Correct you are. We are on the same page.
Are there currently any ceramic parts within Rolex movements (apart from maybe ceramic balls for the rotor bearing)? Maybe we're on the cusp of a new generation of Rolex movements where we start to see ceramic gears, kinda like the ceramic wheels and pawls in the modern IWC Pellaton automatic movements.
Don't know for sure, but I think there aren't - and so, yes, that would be pretty cool, because they'd do it in a 'bulletproof way' which I'd love to see.
Can’t believe that you rewrote all that in half a day👏👏 awesome work 👌
Not 100% of it. Like 70%.
Extra round of applause since substack lost your work. Great read as always 👏
Haha! All's well that ends well... Thanks for taking the time.
Thanks for writing and rewriting in the face of a busy week, much appreciated.
It’s all love baby 😂👊