Predictably Irrational (#3/3): A Watch Collector's Guide to Decision-Making
Part 3: Expectations, Ethics and Social Dynamics in Collecting
I hope 2025 has started well for you all. I’m flying home tonight, and will resume the usual SDC Weekly schedule from next week.
In our previous two explorations of Ariely’s research, we examined how collectors make value judgements and navigate the psychological challenges of acquiring and owning watches. Here, in the final instalment, we turn to perhaps the most complex aspect of collecting: how our expectations, ethics, and social environment shape our behaviour.
We’ll look at how price affects our purchasing decisions as well as our actual experience of wearing watches, why small acts of dishonesty persist in collecting, and how social dynamics influence our choices more than we might like to admit.
Estimated reading time: ~18 minutes
Missed the previous parts? Read about value and money in Part 1 and acquisition psychology in Part 2.
Why The Mind Gets What It Expects
Our expectations influence more than just how we interpret experiences - they shape our sensory experiences and decisions as well. This chapter explores how deeply expectations and stereotypes affect us, often without our awareness, and how this knowledge can be applied in practical ways. It kicks off with Ariely’s beer taste tests.
The point of the test was to demonstrate how prior knowledge changes the way we experience things. MIT students tasted two beers, then chose which one they’d like a free pint of. Beer A was regular Budweiser1. Beer B was Budweiser plus two drops of balsamic vinegar per ounce.
When students weren’t told about the vinegar beforehand, they overwhelmingly chose the ‘balsamic beer’. Yet, when told about the vinegar before tasting, they overwhelmingly chose regular Budweiser. Same beers - different expectations - completely different results.
So, what if you tell people after they taste it? Those who learned about the vinegar after tasting liked the beer just as much as those who never knew about it. In other words, knowledge informs us, but it also reshapes our sensory experiences.
In another study, students were offered free coffee along with a selection of condiments, including both common (milk, sugar) and unusual (cloves, cardamom) options. The coffee itself didn’t change, but the presentation had a significant effect. Fancy containers caused students to rate the coffee as tastier and made them more willing to pay extra for it. Plain styrofoam cups caused the coffee to receive lower ratings. Predictable, but also, irrational!
Ariely then shares another experiment with Asian-American women and maths tests. When reminded of their gender before a test, they performed worse than when reminded of their Asian heritage. This made me laugh, because aside from demonstrating how the same people, doing the same test, can have different expectations which produce different results... It also reinforced (to me) how stereotypes actually get internalised (even if it is about yourself!). Not only do our expectations shape our sensory experiences, but stereotypes - both about others and about ourselves – do affect our behaviour.
On watches…
This expectation effect is everywhere in watch collecting. Think about how we experience a watch differently when we know its price versus when we don’t. Prejudices affect our perception of quality - a clicking bezel is ‘precise’ on a Rolex but perhaps ‘cheap’ and misaligned on a Seiko. Reviews and opinions we read before handling a watch colour our own experience, and knowing the market value of a watch can influence our enjoyment of wearing it.
One obvious example is the endless debate about in-house movements. When a watch has an in-house, hand-made calibre, that slightly rough winding feels ‘full of character’. If it’s a modified Sellita, that same sensation might become a ‘quality issue.’
This explains why brands (ought to) invest in storytelling and heritage. They’re selling much more than just watches - they are selling expectations which will literally change how we experience their products. Even their marketing reflects these ingrained expectations - smaller, more decorative designs for women versus larger, tool-focused designs for men.
So, how to become a better collector? Try handling watches ‘blind’ occasionally. Don’t look up the price, don’t read reviews, don’t check the specs. Perhaps more difficult with known brands, but still worth a try. Just experience a watch for what it is, not what you expect it to be.
Our minds are powerful tools which are able to reshape reality based on what we anticipate. The next time you’re faced with a choice, ask yourself whether your expectations are helping you enjoy the moment or preventing you from seeing it clearly.
Now, let’s talk about price!