SDC Weekly 35; Less is more; A Pagan Project
Birthdays, Rolex wins in court, NBA Cheat code, Apple Vision Pro, Baby shark, and the Story of Titanium and... Larry's back!
What does this quote have to do with today’s SDC? Have you ever heard of a project watch? What’s so special about February?
Hello 👋 and welcome back to the SDC Weekly. Today, you’ll find answers to the questions posed above, and you’ll find the older editions of SDC Weekly here. One thing to start off with: Make sure you watch the video at the very end of this edition.
Before we go on… in light of the insanity (more, more, more) following the Apple Vision Pro launch and such articles highlighting how AI is quietly changing our lives… I thought the image below was both relevant and powerful. If you follow my Instagram page, you will know I enjoy adding silly captions to images - I held back on this one, but welcome your ideas in the comments:
Let’s dig in.
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⚡Less is more
In an excerpt from his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman talks about how he led a team tasked with designing a high school curriculum and textbook to teach the science of judgement and decision making. Bear in mind, this was long before he was a Nobel laureate. As an aside, I did a summary of his book if you want to explore it in more detail:
This post is less about the book itself, and more about a specific insight he covers which is relevant to watch collectors, best summarised as: less is more.
Kahneman’s team included several experienced teachers, some of his own psychology students, and Seymour Fox, then dean of the Hebrew University’s School of Education and, (this will be relevant later!) an expert in curriculum development. He talks about how he met with his team weekly, and over the course of a year had developed an outline for the syllabus, some sample lessons and a number of chapters for the textbook as well. That is when he came up with a particular exercise which was already included the curriculum. As part of the curriculum, they included an approach on how best to draw out information from a group; Instead of having a public discussion, results are improved when information and judgements are gathered confidentially from all individuals in the group. So, Kahneman asked everyone in the team to estimate (privately) how long it would take to finish the textbook and submit it for review. Since nobody was allowed to discuss their views, it was all independent.
The estimates ranged from 18-30 months, but the vast majority thought it would take about 24 months, or two years. Then it occurred to Kahneman - he had Seymour, a distinguished curriculum expert and member of the team - why doesn’t he seek Seymour’s direct feedback? So he asked him whether he was able to think about similar teams who had developed a curriculum from scratch, and it turned out he could. Here’s the crazy part: Despite estimating it would take them two years in the anonymous poll… of all the teams he was familiar with, none of them had taken fewer than seven years to finish the task. None had taken more than ten years either, but about 40% of them had simply failed to complete the job!
On that day, it seemed prudent to call it quits. None of them felt inclined to commit another six years to a project with a 40% failure rate. After a brief, pointless debate, they continued as if all was well.
Eight years later, the book was finally completed. By then, Kahneman had moved to the US, the enthusiasm for the curriculum and textbook from the Ministry had dwindled, and all their work was rendered useless.
Kahneman describes this chapter of his life as “one of the most instructive experiences of my professional life” noting that he and his team had fallen victim to what he and Amos Tversky would later define as the planning fallacy.
The planning fallacy is basically a cognitive bias in which individuals underestimate the time, costs, or resources required to complete a task or project, and overestimate their ability to accomplish their goal within the defined parameters. This bias often leads people to make overly optimistic predictions about the future, based on their personal experiences or desires, without fully considering potential obstacles or complexities that may arise during the execution of the task or project. The planning fallacy can result in delays, budget overruns, and of course, failure to meet deadlines or complete the task. This perfectly describes Kahneman’s story above.
“The trouble with being punctual is that nobody’s there to appreciate it.”
Franklin Jones
The inside view and outside view are concepts used to understand decision-making and the planning fallacy.
Inside View:
The inside view refers to the perspective individuals take when making predictions or decisions based on specific details and information directly related to the task or project at hand.
It involves focusing on unique aspects of the current situation, often relying on personal experiences, intimate knowledge, and optimistic assessments of one’s abilities.
Individuals tend to overemphasise their insider knowledge and underestimate potential obstacles or challenges that might arise during the execution of the task or project.
Outside View:
The outside view involves taking a broader, more objective perspective that considers general statistics, historical data, and similar past experiences of others who have undertaken similar tasks or projects.
It encourages individuals to look beyond the specifics of their current situation and consider the overall track record and outcomes of similar endeavors in the past.
By adopting the outside view, individuals can gain a more realistic understanding of the challenges, timeframes, and potential outcomes associated with their task or project, thus mitigating the effects of the planning fallacy.
In essence, while the inside view focuses on the unique aspects and details of the current situation, the outside view encourages individuals to look beyond their immediate circumstances and consider broader patterns and data to make more realistic predictions and decisions, thereby mitigating the planning fallacy.
In Kahneman’s case, they all took the inside view and assessed the future of their project based on their specific circumstances and experiences. They had a basic plan and estimated completion time, factoring in some margin for error, but in the end their forecast was completely wrong because they underestimated the challenges ahead (“unknown unknowns”).
What is more insane, is how accurate the outside view turned out to be - in that Seymour’s data told them they were likely to finish in between seven and ten years… and they took eight! While the informal feedback lacked scientific rigor, it should have served as a reasonable baseline prediction, anchoring their estimates in that moment.
Ok, so what?
I used to deal with this problem a lot, until I learned to completely reevaluate how I devise my inside view. In day-to-day life, the list of things which can derail a plan is endless… from sickness, to childcare, to weather, electricity, technology and transportation woes. When I used to write these weekly posts or the longer posts, I would never be able to anticipate anything… nothing would unfold as planned. Whether it was my fence being blown over, or encountering a particularly confusing research paper, my progress would often slow down, requiring additional time or seeking further insights. Consequently, unfinished tasks from one day would spill over to the next, accumulating alongside new ones. Occasionally, unforeseen and exciting events like new watch launches, podcasts, interviews or discovering other research topics would arise, leading to further delays in completing my scheduled posts, thus perpetuating the cycle of carryover to the next day. All of this translates into stress and disorganised thinking, which in turn result in suboptimal outputs and shoddy or rushed content.
Eventually, I found myself consciously choosing quality over quantity, and depth over breadth. In other words, the ‘to do list’ simply got cut down to meet the deadline, while still trying to ensure my quality was consistently high. Despite knowing this, I would still find myself adding ideas to the list, in the hopes of covering them. The obvious problem, I realised, was my lack of discipline when adding to the list.
Don’t worry, I am getting to the point about watches - bear with me. After diagnosing the problem, I resolved it by being more ruthless with how I set the bar for anything that goes on the list for consideration. Then it occurred to me: the same is true for the watches we think we are interested in!
This brings me back to an old post which two collectors have separately reached out to me about in recent weeks.
The Watch Collector's Matrix
Do you sometimes feel like you spend all your time putting out proverbial fires in your life? At the end of the day do you feel completely sapped and drained of energy, and yet can’t point to anything of real significance which you accomplished that day?
Hopefully you have not seen this before, because I think it might change how you approach your collecting journey going forward. This post covers a data driven approach to setting out your watch collecting priorities, and I encourage you to read it if you have not already done so. It involves a prioritisation exercise too, if you have the time.
Absent some sort of planning, such as the matrix above, collectors will inevitably find themselves continuously adding to the list of desired watches. This happens without thinking, and social media only exacerbates things. The unintended consequence of this, is it becomes difficult to prioritise future purchases - and you’ve all heard the saying: “if you fail to prepare you are preparing to fail.”1
If you consider this conundrum in the context of the planning fallacy, you will quickly realise the room for error in your own judgement when it comes to planning watch purchases2. If you are planning to buy your current grail for say, £40,000, but you also have other ‘distraction’ watches on your wish list which cost say, £10,000 and £6,000 - what happens if you get a call for the two ‘distraction’ watches in March and June - and then get a call for your grail in September? Assuming you had saved for the grail and planned to ‘target it in 2024’, you will have blown 40% of the budget on these distractions and suddenly find yourself having to liquidate watches to get funds for your grail - perhaps even selling watches below what you could have gotten if you had time to wait for the right buyer. Instead, if you had a clear plan, you would simply decline the distractions in anticipation of the call for your grail, and then have no hesitation when the call comes in.
This is possibly one of the key underlying drivers with people who have been buying watches which trade above retail, even when they didn’t truly want them - they knew they could liquidate them easily and they saw many watches to be “as good as cash” - of course, that is not the case anymore for all but a tiny fraction of watches out there - so this logic is applicable now more than ever before.
So, to conclude, if you think you are prone to the planning fallacy, by having too many watches on your wish list - perhaps consider a new resolution: resolve to cut down the list to encompass exactly what you can afford. You just might get the collection you dreamed of having.
“Do not plan for ventures before finishing what’s at hand.”
Euripedes
🐐 A Pagan Project
Today we will hear from Jaś - perhaps better known as @jasrew on Instagram. He is a London-based creative director, who focuses on fashion, luxury, and innovation. He is also a weird-watch collector, and designer at Baltic Watches.
When I saw this watch appear on my Instagram feed, I had so many questions… so I reached out to find out more. I didn’t plan on sharing the story here, but after I heard it, I thought it was fascinating and unusual. As an SDC reader, you’re probably a very geeky collector in some respects, and yet, how many non-watchmakers do you know, who have made their own watch? I know only one other guy, and he was doing it with the intention of producing several to sell - not just a personal project watch. That’s why I thought this story was worth sharing, and hope you enjoy it. We basically had an ‘interview’ style conversation via Instagram, and once I had decided I want to share the story, I emailed over a few questions and Jaś was kind enough to respond, so I have shared the Q&A below.
Talk me through the thinking behind this watch.
I love the bold and graphic shape of the Cartier Baignoire Allongée and its exploding numerals. Unfortunately, due to my peasant budget, I can’t afford one, so I decided to make my own, with a twist!
My endeavor was not to recreate the iconic Cartier reference, but to hijack it with my own narrative.
What inspired the font?
Taking inspiration from my goth-kid days, half a lifetime ago, I wanted to clash the fluid and delicate Baignoire style, with an aggressive and ominous aesthetic. So I decided to swap the Didot-like font, with a sharp and loud Blackletter typography that I designed specially for this project.
What about the name?
The name “Pagan” refers to “a person holding beliefs other than those of the main or recognized cult”, which is exactly the vibe I was going for. It is also a nod to the brutal DIY restoration, or should I say, desecration process that ensued.
So, you had the inspiration, the mental image… how did it actually pan out?
I sourced the closest watch I could find, for just £50 on eBay, to be butchered on the altar of my hellish watchmaking skills (I'm the anti-Rexhep). I was lucky enough to get my hands on a Cupillard from the 1970s, with an obscure FE163 hand-wound movement beating inside. I cleaned the solid sterling silver case and bracelet myself using silverware polish. I had to learn how to remove the atrophied blue hands on the fly, popped the dial out, sanded the bastard (to get rid of applied cardinal markers), and sourced new silver hands to fuel my post-goth vision. Here are some photos of the watch before I got started, as well as one after I had completed my work on the dial and hands.
Ok, so how did you get create the new dial?
The final step of this mad experiment was to print my custom Pagan dials at home on a sheet of brushed metallic vinyl sticker and slap it on the bare brass base, before reassembling my cursed creation back together!
No way, that doesn’t seem like a home-printer job at all! Are you glad you did it? I mean, would you do it again, with the benefit of hindsight?
While this all may be rooted in darkness, this is very much a happy ending for me. To my surprise, the watch I created looks better than expected, and I love that it is the reflection of my Pagan mind.
The final product
Concluding thoughts
Even if the watch is not to your taste at all, you’ve got to admit the story is fantastic! How often do we sit with fellow collectors and exchange stories about our own watches? In fact, I often argue the personal value in every watch we own, is simply the value we have created in our minds through using it and having it on our wrist while making awesome memories. Some are more sentimental than others, but everyone creates an inexorable bond in their minds between some happy event or experience, and the ownership of the watch on the wrist at the time. Even non-watch people have a personal attachment to watches worn on personally memorable occasions, or worn by people who mean something to them.
This watch takes that concept to a whole new level, in that its entire existence is a memorable story in and of itself; A labour of love which Jaś now gets to wear on his wrist, and to imbue with many more happy memories. The only other story which comes close to this level of emotion in watchmaking for me, was listening to that Stephen McDonnell video I shared from Dubai Watch Week.
The story of this Pagan watch excited me because it boiled down the true essence of watch collecting as a hobby; Inanimate objects which accumulate emotional value which most are unable to put into words, but which every collector is able to feel.
📌 Links of interest
⭐ It’s a new month: Learn how to pronounce it once and for all.
🗺 2024 is set to be an exceptional year in terms of its political, economic and geopolitical density. What impact will this have on the watch industry?
🌠 Since 2022, the United Arab Emirates has imported more than a billion francs’ worth of Swiss watches annually, rivalling France and Germany. Read this Europa Star report from Dubai Watch Week, littered with quotes from industry players.
😕 Appeals court rules in favour of Rolex in the case against Texas-based watch dealer BeckerTime.
💀 Turns out Christophe Claret SA is in liquidation. (Thanks Erik!)
💡 The Story of Titanium: The ninth most abundant element in the earth’s crust. But despite its abundance, it's only recently that civilization has been able to use titanium as a metal.
🥽 MKBHD takes a deep-dive into what the Apple Vision Pro is actually like, and then he dropped a complete review. Here’s a web-based review and another one if you don’t like video reviews.
👴🏻 Tim Cook teases Apple AI announcement ‘later this year’.
💰 17 reflections about money. An excellent list.
🙈 Enhanced Games: Paypal billionaire Peter Thiel invests in controversial doped Olympics.
🤖 An interesting thread looking back at Nathan Myhrvold’s internal Microsoft memo, “Road Kill on the Information Highway,” from 1993.
💀 “Over Time the Trust Will Come”: An Exclusive Interview With TikTok’s CEO.
💩 The Biden Administration’s decision to pause LNG export licenses stinks. It is another self-imposed restriction on U.S. geopolitical and economic power.
🎯 A detailed, 200-slide presentation on the current state of decarbonisation from Nat Bullard.
🤡 Elon Musk Is Overpaid. Or so says a Delaware judge.
🦈California Boasts World First Sighting of a Baby Great White Shark.
End note
This end note is longer than usual, for good reason. Won’t happen too often, so bear with me - no talk of Piaget btw - that’s already overdone!
Auction fee structures - Sotheby’s announced a new fee structure wherein they reduced buyers premiums to 20% on items hammering at or below $6 million, and 10% of the value hammered above $6 million. They also locked the seller’s commission at 10% below $500k and 0% above $500k… but most interesting were the changes for high-value items; at $5 million (low estimate), there will be no seller’s commission, and for items between $20-50 million, sellers get 40% of the buyer’s premium (over and above the hammer price). They also introduced a success fee of 2% where the hammer price is above the high estimate - which is cheeky, unless it is only a fee on the portion of the price which is above the high estimate (does not seem that way). I think other auction houses will follow suit… as I wrote many years ago, this is a downward trend towards zero... Just takes a while for these dinosaurs to make changes.
Job hunters - if you’re looking for a job, Watches of Switzerland is hiring a Rolex Boutique Director for their new store on London’s Bond Street! Could be a fun gig, but I suspect the candidate has already been selected, and they’re advertising this for legal reasons, to allow a ‘fair process for all’.
LV Watch Prize - Apparently this took place last night, but given I scheduled this post before anything was announced, I have nothing to say for now. Noting that I am writing this on Tuesday afternoon, my guess is Raul Pages won. You can make fun of me if I am wrong, but I think he’s the most “useful” to LFdT going forward, and Simon Brette is already too “big” to care about going in-house with them
Birthday malarkey - This week I celebrate another year of existence on this planet, and I can’t help but marvel at the winding path that has led me to this point. From the sun-drenched plains of Zambia to the traumatic, hope-filled excitement of post-apartheid South Africa, and finally to the blood-stained storied shores of the United Kingdom; my journey has been a kaleidoscope of experiences, lessons, adventures and above all, growth.
Growing up in Zambia, I was immersed in a world of natural wonder and cultural richness. I once lived a stone’s throw away from the majestic Mosi-oa-Tunya3, better known as Victoria Falls and my uncle still owns a game reserve in the Lower Zambezi National Park; Africa’s beauty is etched into my mind, and there is no doubt about this being an ever-present backdrop to my formative years. Yet, amidst all of this beauty, there lingered shadows of poverty, inequality, and political turmoil that defined much of the continent’s history.
It was in the midst of this dichotomy that I first learned the value of resilience, perseverance, and optimism in the face of adversity. From navigating the complexities of daily life to bearing witness to the struggles of those less fortunate, Zambia instilled in me a deep appreciation for the indomitable spirit of the human soul and the transformative power of hope. To this day, I often reflect on a particular mental image; young homeless kids playing football in a sandlot using several rolled-up plastic bags as a makeshift ball4 - they played with big smiles and plenty of belly-laughter… they may not even have known where their next meal would come from, but that didn’t get in the way of them being happy and enjoying themselves when the opportunity presented itself.
It was, however, in post-apartheid South Africa that I truly came of age, as the country grappled with the legacy of its divided past and embarked on the arduous journey towards reconciliation and renewal. As a student navigating the complexities of identity and belonging in a society undergoing transition, I bore witness to the transformative power of forgiveness, compassion, and unity in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.
Don’t get me wrong, it was not easy! It was a time of profound change and uncertainty, as the echoes of apartheid reverberated through the halls of power and the hearts of ordinary citizens alike. I vividly recall being in a school bus, and hearing the words “stand up coolie”5 - I didn’t even know this 7ft Afrikaans giant was talking to me, but I quickly realised he was, when he grabbed me by my collar and threw me off my seat. The story has a happy ending, as a group of black kids stood up and came to my defense, but it was a jarring experience to say the least. My point being, amidst the tumult and upheaval, there were moments of grace and redemption that illuminated the path forward, reminding me of the enduring power of the human spirit to transcend division and forge a brighter future for generations to come.
After completing my graduate studies, and working for a while, I made the decision to embark on a new adventure, leaving behind the familiar comforts of home to pursue further study in the United Kingdom. Little did I know, I would stay here, and my time in the UK would coincide with some of the most bizarre events in recent history, from the global financial crisis, to the Brexit circus, a global pandemic, and everything in between.
Living in the UK during this period was like riding a rollercoaster of uncertainty and upheaval, as the country grappled with the aftershocks of economic recession, political upheaval, and social unrest. From the streets of London to the halls of academia, I bore witness to the ebb and flow of history in real-time, grappling with the implications of seismic shifts in the political, social and cultural landscape. I remember telling stories to friends back home, about how safe it was in the UK - and today, I am paranoid about wearing a Daytona to work out of fear of being robbed.
I also had two children after moving to the UK. I even wrote a whole post about that, and I have a tendency to ramble on even more than usual when it comes to the topic of children - I just thought it was worth mentioning they have been an integral part of my personal growth. Their naïve curiosity forced me to question my beliefs and habits, adapt, and consider what example I want to set for the next generation. They upgraded my outlook on life, and forced me to be a better version if myself before I even realised that is what was happening.
Another major reflection, highlights the role of luck in shaping my path. From the chance encounters that led to lifelong friendships to the unexpected opportunities that opened doors to new horizons, luck has been a silent companion on my journey, guiding me through the twists and turns of fate with a gentle hand. Even though I am not a religious person, I would consider myself quite spiritual - and I attribute a lot of this luck to prayers from my parents and grandparents.
This very post you are reading, is a direct result of one friend (Cheers Kev!) adding me to a WhatsApp group roughly 6 years ago. At the time, I had never met this guy in person, and we had only spoken on Instagram. That started the ball rolling for me to become more active on social media, which led to more dialogues with other collectors, which led to sharing short opinions on social media, which led to a blog… I can’t frame this as anything other than luck. Sure, effort is required to make it happen, but luck set the stage perfectly.
Alongside luck, there has also been hard work, determination, and perseverance, as I sought to carve out my own path in some ways. Whether it was the late nights spent poring over textbooks for my studies, or the spare time learning languages to improve foreign business relationships, and even the extremely early mornings getting my workouts in during the British winters… I learned the value of discipline, dedication, and determination in the pursuit of any desired outcome.
And through it all, there has been gratitude; a steadfast companion on my journey through life. From the simple pleasures of the warm winter sun on a cold winter’s day to the profound warmth you feel when you walk into your home and your child beams with joy at the mere sight of you… gratitude has been my constant companion, reminding me of the inimitable richness and abundance of life.
It is a lesson that I carry with me wherever I go, a reminder to savour the small moments of joy and wonder that illuminate the tapestry of our existence. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “Cultivate the habit of being grateful for every good thing that comes to you, and to give thanks continuously. And because all things have contributed to your advancement, you should include all things in your gratitude.”
My final reflections have come out of this hobby, particularly over the last couple of years as I began to write more. There is simply no such thing as an objective measure in this hobby; every watch, every collection, every allocation… is always measured relative to the person in question. A Rolex Submariner is an absolute grail to a poor kid who made it out of the projects and went on to start a business. A Patek Nautilus is a mediocre watch to a seasoned Patek collector who has several grand complications from the brand. Many newcomers to the hobby see things in absolutes, and nothing could be further from the truth. “We do not see things as they are, we see them as we are.”6
As I look ahead to the years to come, I am filled with a sense of anticipation and excitement… I am curious to see where the road less traveled will lead me next, but I stop short of saying I am eager. From the dusty yet bustling streets of Zambia to the cobblestone and sh*t-covered pavements of the UK, my journey has been an enjoyable and fulfilling one… but really, I am in no rush to see what happens next, I’d rather take it all in slowly and deliberately, than have it all race by. Seneca put it perfectly when he said, “Life is like a play: it's not the length, but the excellence of the acting that matters.”
I’ve never been a big birthday person, but it felt like as good a time as any to take a moment to reflect… To spew out some clichés which are representative of my current thoughts… Birthdays are not about the number of years we have spent on this terrestrial ball; They are about recounting the moments which have shaped us, the lessons life has taught us, and the love which has sustained us. As I blow out the candles on another year of life, the most overwhelming feelings are gratitude and hope… for the journey that has brought me to this moment, and the adventures that lie ahead.
I suppose it is implicit in the last paragraph, but seems worth repeating explicitly: I remain grateful to have you as a subscriber. Thank you 🕊
Until next time,
F
🔮Bonus link: The cheat code taking over the NBA
This one is for @NYCWatchGuy! This 12 minute video covers the history of dribbling in basketball, and discusses how a particular blend of on-ball and off-ball offense, is so difficult to guard against. You may recognise what you see here, but I doubt many have given this much thought to why it’s so hard to defend, or when it became so popular!
🤡 Another bonus link: Larry’s back!!! (Thanks !)
Believe it or not, that “❤️ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you enjoyed this post, please let others know. Thanks for reading!
Quote’s origin is not Benjamin Franklin as many believe!
Note: None of this applies to people who have unlimited money. If you have enough money to buy whatever watches you want, then crack on. Why are you even here?
This is translated as “Smoke that Thunders.”
Coolie - Wikipedia - a pejorative term which has deeper roots, but one which racist Afrikaaners in apartheid South Africa would use to refer to brown people. Black people had their own pejorative term, but I won’t get into that!
Quote’s origin is unknown, but often misattributed.
The tenets that guide my collection journey:
1. Don't attach sentimental reasons to a purchase.
2. Aesthetics first.
2. There are no grails.
4. Make a plan and stick to it, use the matrix as a reminder and to make adjustments as necessary.
5. Don't let cost be a barrier.
One and two were with me from the beginning. The others came more recently, around the time that you first published the matrix.
The project watch is such a cool concept and regarding this specific one, at first I didn't like it, but certainly can appreciate it. As I've been sitting in this meeting sort of staring at it, I'll be damned if it isn't growing on me. Either way, well done to him!
My favorite Leonism from the premier- “They call that shit DTM. Doing too much.”
You’re sharing of your journey and experience was enthralling to read and picture in my mind…. Certainly the highlight of this post and was not only motivating but underscored and reminded me of the importance and value of the ongoing and relentless acknowledgment of gratitude in all things! So thank you 🙏🏼 for that!
And fvck you Siri, you cvnt; YES I calked you a cvnt! 😝😂🤣😹