50 Guiding Principles

And how they apply to watch collecting

Far be it from me to offer life advice; I am not sufficiently qualified nor do I possess the requisite arrogance. So don’t worry, this is not one of those posts. Now, do you have a collection of web links which became instant bookmarks the first time you accessed them? I have so many! There are posts out there which will never get old, and are worth returning to as time passes. One of my all-time favourites, is the post I recently shared from Ted Gioia about evaluating character.

I once read another awesome old post which covered “50 guiding life principles”¹ which I found really useful, and return to sometimes. So I had an idea; Instead of just sharing these principles, I have added a “watch collecting spin” to each one. Below, I have listed each principle as a quote from the original post, and then added how it may apply to watch collectors, or watch collecting as a hobby.

This ended up being a long post… I debated splitting it into two parts, but given the original list was 50-strong, it felt wrong to split it! Some of them were easier to ‘watchify’ than others, but it was a lot of fun to think about and I hope you enjoy it!

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ScrewDownCrown is a reader-supported guide to the world of watch collecting, behavioural psychology, & other first world problems.

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Inversion

Avoiding stupidity is easier than trying to be brilliant. Instead of asking, “How can I help my company?” you should ask, “What’s hurting my company the most and how can I avoid it?” Identify obvious failure points, and steer clear of them.

Instead of focusing on which watches to buy, consider which ones to avoid purchasing; the ones you know will be regrettable acquisitions. For example, instead of asking “Which watch should I buy next?” you could ask “What characteristics should I avoid in a watch to prevent buyer's remorse?” This will set you down a path of making sure you can effectively avoid all the noise in potential acquisitions which might end up distracting you on your collecting journey.

Doublespeak

People often say the opposite of what they mean, especially in political language. It allows people to lie while looking like they’re telling the truth. As George Orwell famously wrote in 1984, “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” 

Pay attention to marketing language in the watch industry. Some brands may use terms like “heritage” or “limited edition” to create the illusion of exclusivity and value, even when the watches don’t possess those qualities. Even then, it is worth questioning the source of information, and their potential conflicts of interest which may be undisclosed.

Theory of Constraints

A system is only as strong as its weakest point. Focus on the bottleneck. Counterintuitively, if you break down the entire system and optimize each component individually, you’ll lower the effectiveness of the system. Optimize the entire system instead.

Applying this to watch collecting could go in so many directions! If a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, a watch collection’s coherence is contingent upon addressing any limiting factors. Imagine your collection as a symphony orchestra, with each watch representing a different instrument. Some watches may shine as virtuosos, others may lag behind like amateurs. By identifying and addressing the constraints within your collection - be it be a lack of diversity in complications, a shortage of vintage pieces, or a dearth of representation from certain brands - you can conduct a harmonious ensemble that showcases the full spectrum of horological excellence as you see it. That’s the key here; there is no rule book about what a collection should look like, but you need to do some introspection and determine what your collection should look like to you.

Preference Falsification

People lie about their true opinions and conform to socially acceptable preferences instead. In private they’ll say one thing. In public, they’ll say another. 

Be wary of following popular trends in watch collecting solely because they appear to be socially acceptable. Instead, consider your personal preferences and avoid succumbing to peer pressure or false marketing when building your collection and making purchase decisions.

Faustian Bargain

A man once sold his soul to a demon in exchange for knowledge. At first, it seemed like a smart trade. But the man lost in the long-run. Tragically, what the man lost was more valuable than what he earned. In short, he won the battle but lost the war. 

Just as Faust traded his soul for knowledge, watch collectors may be tempted to sacrifice long-term fulfillment for short-term gratification in their pursuit of coveted pieces. Consider a collector faced with the allure of acquiring a once-in-a-lifetime watch which promises instant prestige and status. Thing is, just like Faust’s pact with the devil, this impulsive acquisition may come at the cost of overlooking something more meaningful and enduring… something which truly resonates with the collector's passion and values.

Where I see this happening most often is when there are limited release launches and collectors are given no time to think. They have to commit, or lose the allocation. This causes them to reallocate funds from a more considered purchase, to secure something which they may not be able to get again. This is foolish, and this problem was amplified when everything was trading above retail. Either way, resisting such temptations will safeguard the integrity of your collection and also, your peace of mind!

Mimetic Theory of Desire

Humans are like sheep. We don’t know what we want, so we imitate each other. Instead of creating our own desires, we desire the same things as other people. The entire advertising industry is built on this idea. 

This does not even need an explanation! I have written about this too often, so repeating once again won’t hurt; Resist the temptation to buy watches simply because they’re deemed popular by other collectors. Cultivate your own tastes and preferences, and focus on acquiring watches that genuinely resonate with you.

Mimetic Theory of Conflict

People who are similar are more likely to fight than people who are different. That’s why Civil Wars and family feuds create the worst conflicts. The closer two people are and the more equality between them, the greater the potential for conflict.

Honestly, I struggled with this one. Sure, it may be true that conflicts within the watch collecting community are more pronounced or fiery when it is between enthusiasts who share similar interests… but I have no data to support this. In fact, the watch community is mostly quite friendly and free of open conflict!

I left this alone, and came back later… One thing which comes to mind is how passionate collectors seem to get into intense debates because of their unwillingness to open their world view up to others’ ideas. This leads to fiery debates, with both parties talking over one another. The passion is what makes them similar, and their egos are what keeps them from seeing each other’s points.

Still, let me know if you have any other examples which fit this section, and I will update this with credit to you!

Talent vs. Genius

Society is good at training talent but terrible at cultivating genius. Talented people are good at hitting targets others can’t hit, but geniuses find targets others can’t see. They are opposite modes of excellence. Talent is predictable, genius is unpredictable. 

Understand the distinction between acquiring watches based on technical excellence (talent) versus those that offer truly unique and visionary designs (genius). I have had to resist the temptation to use names here… but I have no doubt you will know exactly what I am talking about. Still, if you’d like to add your suggestions, please do so in the comments!

Competition is for Losers

Avoid competition. Stop copying what everybody else is doing. If you work at a for-profit company, work on problems that would not otherwise be solved. If you’re at a non-profit, fix unpopular problems. Life is easier when you don’t compete. (Hint: don’t start another bottled water company). 

This one is on point for our hobby. You should absolutely avoid getting caught up in the competitive aspects of watch collecting. Acquiring watches for the purpose of showing, or worse, outdoing other collectors, is comical at best, but quite sad at worst. Just prioritise building a collection which brings you personal enjoyment and satisfaction. Simple as that. (More on Social Status and Watch Collecting Part 1, Part 2)

Secrets are Hidden in Plain Sight

Most people think of secrets as Easter eggs. They assume that if a secret is important, it’s necessarily going to be hard to find. The best ideas can come from things that are so well-known that they aren’t well-seen. 

Easier said than done, but try to look beyond the most hyped or well-known watch models to discover hidden gems that may offer exceptional value or significance within the horological community. Honestly, I would start with Luca Soprana if I were hunting for a hidden gem right now, in 2024. (And no, I am not a paid shill, nor did he ask me to say anything - in fact, he may never even see this!)

The Never-Ending Now

The structure of our social media feeds blinds us to history, as it causes us to live in an endless cycle of ephemeral content consumption. The structure of the Internet pulls people away from age-old wisdom. 

Be mindful of how modern marketing and social media may influence your perception of watch collecting, encouraging a focus on the latest releases rather than appreciating the historical context and the origin of certain designs or ideas.

Demand Curves Slope Down

The harder something is to do, the fewer people will do it. For example, raise the price of a product and fewer people will buy it. Lower the price and more people will buy it. Economics 101.

Recognise that the popularity and desirability of most watches may fluctuate over time, influencing their market value and availability. This sounds fairly obvious, but even as recently as 2021, I saw people buying watches like they were some magical source of guaranteed return on investment. Bonkers.

Look for Things That Don’t Make Sense

The world always makes sense. But it can be confusing. When it is, your model of the world is wrong. So, things that don’t make sense are a learning opportunity. Big opportunities won’t make sense until it’s too late to profit from them. 

Be open to exploring unconventional or overlooked watches that may defy traditional expectations but offer unique features or design elements. To be honest, this is exactly what led me to F. P. Journe, years ago. This sounds so simple now, with hindsight - but I will never forget saying “Ok, I am happy to lose 40-50% on this watch because I really like it.” Today, remembering this moment helps me know, deep down, that I bought it for the right reasons despite how well the brand went on to perform afterwards. At the time, it made no sense to many others.

The Wisdom of Paradox

Logic is the key to scientific truths, but paradoxes are the key to psychological ones. When it comes to the human condition, the deepest truths are often counter-intuitive. When you find two opposites that are both true, start exploring.

Embrace the contradictions and complexities within the watch collecting hobby, recognising that what may seem illogical or contradictory at first glance can often lead to deeper insights and appreciation.²

Law of Shitty Click-Through Rates

Most marketing strategies have a short window of success, as click-through rates decrease as tactics mature. For example, the first banner-ad has a click-through rate of more than 70%. Now we avoid them with ad-blockers.

Perhaps marketing tactics used to promote watches may become less effective over time as collectors become more discerning and immune to traditional advertising methods. This means brands must innovate, and in a notoriously slow and dogmatic industry, this can be painful for collectors as they wait for brands to catch up. It is no surprise that independent watchmakers are growing their market share each year.

Russell Conjugation

Journalists often change the meaning of a sentence by replacing one word with a synonym that implies a different meaning. For example, the same person can support an estate tax but oppose a death tax — even though they are the same thing.

Pay attention to the language used to describe watches, as subtle shifts in terminology can influence perceptions and biases. For example, a watch described as “vintage-inspired” may evoke different associations than one labeled as “homage.” Let’s not even talk about “in-house” or all the other BS we see in the industry.

Opportunity Cost

By reading this tweet [sic], you are choosing not to read something else. Everything we do is like this. Doing one thing requires giving up another. Whenever you explicitly choose to do one thing, you implicitly choose not to do another thing. 

Consider the trade-offs involved in allocating resources to watch collecting, as every purchase represents a decision to forgo other potential investments or experiences. No sh*t… but this is a whole topic on its own; The opportunity cost, versus the ‘enjoyment per unit of money’ - I mean, I have a boat, but I use it maybe once a year… What’s the point? I can wear a watch daily if I want to. It offers plenty of enjoyment per unit of money! Incidentally, this also favours having a smaller collection, because every time you add a watch to your collection, you are reducing the opportunity to enjoy the others as they all compete for time on your (single) wrist.

Overton Window

You can control thought without limiting speech. You can do it by defining the limits of acceptable thought while allowing for lively debate within these barriers. For example, Fox News and MSNBC set limits on what political thoughts they consider acceptable, but in the grand scheme of things, they’re both fairly conventional. The political spectrum stretches far beyond the ideas they entertain, but ideas outside their limits are shunned. 

Joseph Overton was an American policy analyst after whom the concept is named after - despite this being about ‘policy’ we can still take something away here. Be aware of how the boundaries of acceptable taste and style in watch collecting may shift over time, influencing which watches are considered desirable or fashionable within the community. Compare and contrast this with what your actual beliefs are, and don’t get drawn into popular rhetoric just because that’s what the mainstream is following. Sheeple, as I like to call them.

Planck’s Principle

Science doesn’t progress because people change their views. Rather, each new generation of scientists has different views. As old generations pass away, new ideas are accepted and the scientific consensus changes.

Recognise that the landscape of watch collecting is constantly evolving, with new generations of collectors bringing fresh perspectives and preferences that may challenge established norms and conventions. A good example is the widespread and growing use of increasingly advanced CNC technology³, versus hand made watches. Many will argue the pursuit of increased production is a ‘democratic thing’, especially in light of the high levels of quality attainable with modern CNC. Why bother with slow, hand finished objects, when we can make equally pretty objects 90% faster, and get them cheaper too?

Well, I still like to romanticise the past here, but I fear I am increasingly in the minority as modern collectors embrace the realities of what modern technology can deliver. My prediction is, over time, the truly hand-made stuff will simply become rarer and more sought-after, and all this rapid-fire machine-made crap will be too commoditised to be considered special. Watchmakers and brands are short sighted, because the money is good… for now.

Bike-Shed Effect

A group of people working on a project will fight over the most trivial ideas. They’ll ignore what’s complicated. They’ll focus too much on easy-to-understand ideas at the expense of important, but hard to talk about ideas. For example, instead of approving plans for a complicated spaceship, the team would argue over the color of the astronaut’s uniforms.

Be mindful of the tendency to focus on trivial aspects of watch collecting, such as debating the merits of dial colors or strap materials, while overlooking more useful considerations like movement quality or brand and reputation.

Table Selection

This idea comes from poker, where you’re advised to choose your opponents carefully. That means you shouldn’t compete against the best people. You don’t need to get good at doing difficult things if you get good at avoiding difficult things. If you want to win, pick an easy table and nail your execution.

Choose your watch acquisitions wisely, perhaps focusing on lesser-known but equally impressive timepieces. Doing this, you can cultivate a more distinctive and rewarding watch collection without the hassle of waiting lists or intense competition with other collectors to buy the same watches. A friend of mine did this with Journe, and he is extremely happy he did. Ironically, after he got his piece, the model he bought also became hyped. Another area this applies is choosing your authorised dealer; the smaller, family-run places in obscure locations may offer you a better chance at getting what you want. Yet another area this would apply, is the collectors you call friends… choose them wisely.

Goodhart’s Law

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. One hospital took too long to admit patients so a penalty was given for 4+ hour wait times. In response, ambulance drivers were asked to slow down so they could shorten wait times. 

Be cautious of fixating on specific metrics or criteria when evaluating watches, as this may lead to unintended consequences or distortions in judgment. This could be anything from case diameter, to “sapphire vs plexi” … all of these measures are meaningless on paper. You can’t ever say things like “X mm watches are too big for me” because you will never be correct 100% of the time.

Gall’s Law

A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system.

Recognise that successful watch collections often evolve from simpler beginnings, with each acquisition building upon a foundation of knowledge and experience. So as you seek advice and try to apply it to your own journey, realise that you will always lack some context from others’ stories and should apply the appropriate judgement to ensure you’re not trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

Hock Principle

Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex and intelligent behavior. Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple and stupid behavior.

Understand that a clear sense of purpose and guiding principles can inform your approach to watch collecting, and allow for more meaningful and fulfilling experiences as a collector.

For example, one could have a principle to collect vintage dive watches exclusively; So you can develop encyclopedic knowledge in that specific niche, which will allow you to make informed decisions and appreciate the subtle differences between various models, and potentially identify extremely rare or exciting pieces. A focused approach like this can result in a collection that is not only aesthetically pleasing but also intellectually stimulating, as you uncover the rich history and quirks surrounding each new piece you land.

Conversely, you could have a rule like

A Watch Critic

who will only allow himself to hold a single watch from any brand in his collection. This is his way of thoroughly understanding what each watch brings to his collection, and thinking critically about what stays and what goes.

Parkinson’s Law

Work expands to fill the time available. People don’t want to look like they’re lazy, so they find extra tasks to tackle, even if they’re trivial. If you have six months to complete a project, it will take six months to complete. Set deadlines accordingly.  

Set realistic limits as well as goals for your watch collecting endeavours to prevent over commitment or procrastination. Personally, I found it helpful to limit the total number of watches I hold, so I am eventually forced to reevaluate the collection before any new purchase… but that’s just me. Your solution will depend on your own personality and circumstances.

By the way … you’re halfway!

The Second Law of Thermodynamics

The world tends towards disorder. That’s why your room becomes messier and messier over time. It’s also why an engine converts only ~35% of its energy into useful work. Time moves towards increasing one direction: increasing entropy. 

Just as the world tends towards disorder, the intricate mechanisms within watches can also succumb to wear and tear over time, causing performance and reliability to decline. Our watches are frequently subjected to the forces of friction, gravity, temperature fluctuations, and more… meaning they will eventually require maintenance. I couldn’t do any better here!

The Paradox of Specificity

Focus isn’t as constraining as it seems. In the age of the Internet, when everybody has Google search and personalized social media feeds, differentiation is free marketing. The more specific your goal, the more opportunities you’ll create for yourself. Narrowing your aperture can expand your horizons.

In some ways this is self-explanatory… As watch collectors we have no trouble embracing unique qualities and characteristics of individual watches, or recognising that niche or specialised models may offer distinct advantages or appeal to specific tastes within the collecting community. The number of times you see “possibly unique” on an auction listing, alone, is testament to this phenomenon!

Emergence

When things interact, they often birth new, unpredictable forms. Therefore, the sum total of a system is more than its component parts. As a system evolves, its structure can transform — just like how water becomes cold water until it turns into ice. 

In watch collecting, the interaction between different timepieces within a collection can give rise to unexpected insights and connections; the whole may be greater than the sum of its parts. Perhaps that is abstract, so let me offer an example. If you wear a sports Rolex every day, but you wear a fine dress watch like a Patek Philippe 5531r once a week when you attend church, the Patek will feel special when you put it on. If you wear the Patek daily, then what would feel special to you? This is an example with two watches. Now expand it to include other traits like colour, thickness, weight and so on. In the end, the whole collection is indeed offering more value than the sum of its parts, or each individual watch. The juxtaposition of diverse watches in a collection can create a narrative for the collector, and also reflect the collector’s tastes, interests, and journey through horology.

Occam’s Razor

If there are multiple explanations for why something happened and they are equally persuasive, assume the simplest one is true. In the search for truth, remove unnecessary assumptions. Trust the lowest-complexity answer. 

This principle can be applied to so many areas of watch collecting, from fellow collectors, to watch design, and just daily buying and selling. Let’s pick a simple example. Imagine you come across a vintage watch with a dubious history and conflicting documentation. Unless you are Aurel Bacs, entertaining elaborate theories and speculations is not the best approach. Applying Occam’s Razor suggests favouring the simplest explanation which aligns with the available evidence. So if the watch lacks clear documentation and exhibits signs of alteration, it makes more sense to assume that it is a Frankenwatch - a mishmash of components from different timepieces - rather than concocting elaborate tales about its mythical provenance.

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Hickam’s Dictum

The opposite of Occam’s Razor. In a complex system, problems usually have more than one cause. For example, in medicine, people can have many diseases at the same time.

I suppose this one is for Aurel Bacs! More generally, watches can absolutely have multiple factors or causes which contribute to their appeal or significance; The Daytona is objectively an enjoyable and attractive watch, but it also enjoys ‘icon status’… and events such as the Paul Newman auction have cemented it as a cultural status symbol. So the takeaway is… make sure your understanding captures context as well as a good overview of all relevant attributes, when considering watches.

Hormesis

A low dose of something can have the opposite effect of a high dose. A little bit of stress wakes you up, but a lot of stress is bad for you. Lifting weights for 30 minutes per day is good for you, but lifting weights for 6 hours per day will destroy your muscles. Stress yourself, but not too much.

Basically: The dose matters! Recognise that moderation and balance are handy principles to apply to oneself in watch collecting. Above all other negatives, chasing the dopamine from a new purchase is one of the worst pursuits… but you already know that, as a long time reader of these posts! Here’s a few:

Dopamine and watch collecting

Pleasure vs. Happiness

Happiness revisited

Subtract negatives

Motivated reasoning

Robustness Principle

Be conservative in what you do, be liberal in what you accept from others. It’s a design guideline for software and a good rule for life: Hold yourself to a higher standard than you hold others to.

I think this is about remaining open to diverse perspectives and experiences. As a collector, adopting a robust approach entails being discerning in what you add to your collection whilst also remaining open-minded and receptive to new insights and perspectives from fellow enthusiasts. Some have thin skin, and take criticism about their watches the wrong way; these are not personal attacks, they are mere opinions about objects. Rather than isolating oneself within the confines of your own preferences, embrace the robustness principle by welcoming input and feedback from others. By maintaining a balance between steadfast conviction and intellectual curiosity, you will cultivate a collection that is not only strong and enduring but also dynamic and adaptable to the evolving landscape in the hobby.

Legibility

We are blind to what we cannot measure. Not everything that counts can be measured, and not everything that can be measured counts. But people manage what they can measure, so society repeats the same mistakes.

This one had me on a huge tangent! I have bemoaned the lack of transparency in the hobby on more than one occasion, but the truth is, clarity and transparency of information within the watch collecting community are essential for making informed decisions. Without access to clear and accurate information about production methods, collaborators, or original sources, collectors may find themselves adrift in a sea of uncertainty and confusion. Prioritising legibility within the community - through transparent communication, educational resources, and open dialogue -will really help collectors empower themselves and newcomers to navigate the complexities of the hobby with confidence and clarity.

Horseshoe Theory

Extreme opposites tend to look the same. For example, a far-right movement and a far-left movement can be equally violent or desire a similar outcome. People on both sides are more similar to each other than they are to people in the center. 

Appreciate the diversity and complexity of watch collecting perspectives, recognising that seemingly disparate viewpoints may share common ground or underlying motivations. What’s amusing about this one, is how this horseshoe theory can be observed quite often between colletors of avant-garde or ultra modern watches. They have insane arguments about wearability and versatility, and as a neutral bystander it seems their arguments are somewhat identical and equally valid (or invalid).

So really, by recognising the potential for unexpected connections and bridging the perceived divide between different watch styles, collectors can enrich their horological journey and foster a sense of unity more easily than one might think. We’re really all equally demented in this hobby.

Availability Cascade

A self-reinforcing cycle that creates collective beliefs. An idea will gain traction once it enters the mainstream, which triggers a chain reaction, which causes lots of people to adopt it not because it’s true but because it’s popular. 

This might as well be the mantra of our hobby... Back to the sheeple label. I will not try to explain this, because any reader of this site will have heard this too often. In short, be cautious of trends or fads in watch collecting, and recognise that widespread popularity or hype may not always reflect genuine value or lasting appeal.

Creativity Begins at the Edge

Change starts away from the spotlight. Then, it moves towards the center. That’s why the most interesting ideas at a conference never come from the main stage. They come from the hallways and the bar after sunset

Explore unconventional or unorthodox paths within watch collecting, recognising that innovation and breakthroughs often emerge from the periphery rather than the mainstream. This is one of the benefits I enjoy as a result of having so many conversations with other collectors. Everyone has so many interesting ideas about watchmaking, and so do watch makers. These conversations always leave me thinking about watches which I may want to consider, having never considered them before… or perhaps renew my appreciation for a certain complication, or view a particular watch in a new light due to some brand new insight. All of this serves to enrich the collecting experience.

The Copernican Principle

The more we learn about astronomy, the less it seems that earth is special. It’s a small part of the universe, and each human is a small part of the earth. We are all spinning through the solar system — nowhere near the beginning or end of time.

Maintain a humble and introspective mindset in your approach to watch collecting, recognising your place within a larger community and continuum of enthusiasts.

As Steve Jobs once quoted: “Stay hungry, stay foolish”.

Personal Monopoly

Corporations reward conformity, but the Internet rewards people who are unique. If you work in a creative field, strive to be the only person who does what you do. Find your own style, then run with it. Create intellectual real estate for yourself.

Cultivate your unique identity and perspective within the watch collecting community, distinguishing yourself through your tastes, knowledge, and contributions to the hobby. Whether you’re the red strap guy, or the vintage Movado gal, or anything really… I think this can be a positive or a negative thing. In some ways, if you feel strongly about something, you can count of people always thinking of you and sharing this stuff when they encounter it - which is of course a great outcome. Conversely, you may find yourself being ‘trapped’ by this persona, and will need a strong will and thick skin to get out of this ‘box’.

I am reminded of this one fellow who was the most vehement anti-Rolex collector I had ever met. He eventually bought a Rolex when the colourful Oyster Perpetuals were released, and he was absolutely lambasted for doing so. It was all in good fun, and he took it well.. but I don’t think he expected that sort of backlash, and I think it took genuine bravery to actually show everyone he has purchased one!

I also don’t think this is crucial or necessary at all… just another way to make the hobby more interesting, perhaps.

The Paradox of Consensus

Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect was found guilty by every judge, they were deemed innocent. Too much agreement implied a systemic error in the judicial process. Unanimous agreement sometimes leads to bad decisions. 

Be wary of groupthink or consensus within the watch collecting community, and realise diversity of opinion and healthy skepticism can lead to better decision-making and understanding. This comes up quite a lot in many forms, but that is not surprising at all. I talk about this at length in the Dufour article, and I always become weary of unanimous agreement on any topic in this hobby, as it often signals a systemic bias or overlooks some important alternate perspectives.

This is more a matter of collectors remaining vigilant against the allure of consensus, and recognising diversity of opinion as well as healthy debate are essential for fostering innovation and enriching the horological landscape for all.

Penny Problem Gap

Economists assume demand is linear, but people’s behavior totally changes once an action costs money. If the inventors of the Internet had known about it, spam wouldn’t be such a problem. If sending an email cost you $0.001, there’d be way less spam. 

Consider the psychological and behavioural factors which influence watch collecting, recognising that subtle changes in incentives or costs can have significant impacts on behaviour and preferences. In watch collecting, the paradox of abundance manifests when an overwhelming volume of information and options leads to challenges in discerning quality and making decisions.

Imagine a collector entering a vast library filled with shelves upon shelves of watch catalogues, forums, and historical material; this is what we have today, in the form of social media, online articles, video reviews, access to watchmaking factories and so on. While the abundance of resources offers opportunities for exploration and discovery, it also presents a daunting task of sifting through endless choices and conflicting opinions.

Collectors must therefore carefully navigate through the abundance of information, distinguishing between valuable insights and noise. Moreover, as the watch industry continues to innovate and expand, the paradox of abundance intensifies, with an influx of new releases and technological advancements further complicating the decision-making process.

The paradox of abundance can only be met with discernment and critical thinking. We must hone our ability to identify timepieces that resonate with our own tastes and preferences amidst the sea of options, and conflicting opinions.

The Invisible Hand

Markets aggregate knowledge. Rising prices signal falling supply or increased demand, which incentivizes an increase in production. The opposite is true for falling prices. Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive.

Appreciate the role of market forces and dynamics in shaping the landscape of watch collecting, recognising the power of supply and demand to influence prices, availability, and consumer behavior.

In the context of watch collecting, the principle of the “Invisible Hand” can be illustrated through the role of market forces and consumer behaviour in shaping the availability and value of watches. Just as Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” guides economic activity towards equilibrium in free markets, the forces of supply and demand govern the dynamics of the watch collecting community. This seemingly basic principle is often lost on so many collectors who get caught up in hype mania.

Base Rate

The average outcome for an event over time. They’re like batting averages for life, and they work best with big sample sizes. For example, if you’re starting a business, avoid the restaurant business where margins are low and competition is high.

This is a tricky one to apply to collecting, because it misses the non-monetary value collectors may attach to a watch. Sure, some might use historical data and trends as a guide in their watch collecting endeavours, to perhaps determine the correct time to buy or sell… but perhaps we can apply this in another way.

If you look at your own ‘base rate’ this need not be about money. Perhaps you are the sort of person who tends to shy away from integrated bracelets; even though you have owned a few, you rarely keep them. This implies your ‘base rate’ or baseline is that you don’t like them as much as leather straps. The next time you find yourself in love with a newly released watch on an integrated bracelet, just remember your baseline and don’t bother buying it, despite how strongly you feel “this time its different” - it probably isn’t!

Circle of Competence

Define the limits of your knowledge. Hint: the limits are smaller than you think. That’s because being an expert in one area doesn’t make you an expert in anything else. Be clear about what you know and don’t know. 

This seems fairly obvious and applies to all walks of life… Know your strengths and limitations as a watch collector, focusing on areas where you have expertise and understanding while remaining open to learning and growth. Consider growing your network of collector friends who you can turn to for advice and insight when you need it.

Convexity

If you want to be lucky, look for opportunities with big upsides and low downsides. In addition to increased optionality, your errors will benefit you more than they harm you. Convex payoffs let you tinker your way to success and innovation. 

What do asymmetrical gains and advantages look like in watch collecting? For me, this is about knowledge and education, and about recognising how calculated risks and unconventional strategies may lead to outsized rewards, perhaps fiancially, but more so in terms of discovering hidden gems which are previously unknown or underappreciated.

In this hobby, people often use the term “underrated” and when they do, it tends to be uttered as a signal to others that this person has made an outstanding choice and others are not giving them enough credit. This is stupid.

Hot take: These opportunities rarely exist in new releases and are mostly found in the world of vintage watches. Sure, you ay find a few neo-vintage examples, but for the most part convexity is rewarded when people put in the time to dig into archives and explore the history of certain brands and catalogues to uncover truly special objects.

The Go-For-It Window

Large gaps between accelerating technologies and stagnating social norms create lucrative new business opportunities. But they are only available for a short time when people can capitalize on the difference between the real and perceived state of the world. For example, 2007 was the perfect time to launch the iPhone, but Google Glasses launched too early.

The concept of the “Go-For-It Window” in watch collecting perhaps perfectly describes Simon Brette’s launch in 2023. This is about those opportune moments in which brands or collectors can capitalise on a buoyant market, emerging trends or technological advancements. The same could be applied to Furlan Marri, ad many others. In fact, the hype enjoyed by F.P. Journe watches, despite being a function of artificial supply constraints by Watchbox, was only a huge success because of the bull market it took place in.

Timing is crucial, and as trends evolve and tastes shift, so do opportunities. Collectors can use this to their advantage of course… Today, Journe prices are down, so it is a great time to get that watch you’ve been wanting to buy, at a lower price than you would have paid a year ago. Same for many other brands, which are now available below their retail prices.

Via Negativa

When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or purchase a fix. But sometimes, you can improve your life by taking things away. For example, the foods you avoid are more important than the foods you eat.

Practice restraint and discernment in your watch collecting pursuits. Recognise that sometimes the best decisions involve abstaining or removing, rather than adding or acquiring.

The Medium Is the Message

We pay too much attention to what is being said. But the medium of communication is more impactful. For example, the Internet’s impact on humanity has a bigger influence than anything that’s said on the Internet. 

Consider the broader cultural and societal influences that shape the practice of watch collecting… the context and environment in which watches are experienced can significantly impact their meaning and significance. This can go really deep, but I want to keep it brief… watch collecting is about the journey of collecting, not the false destination we think each purchase might be. It is also about the hunt for the next piece… which is more like a pit stop on the overall journey. Take it in.

The hunt

Resource Curse

Countries with an abundance of natural resources such as diamonds and fossil fuels tend to have less economic growth and worse development than countries with fewer natural resources. 

Be mindful of the potential pitfalls and challenges associated with acquiring watches, particularly those with abundant availability or widespread popularity. In the world of watch collecting, the “resource curse” can manifest as the allure of mass-produced or widely available models overshadowing the appreciation for more unique and niche timepieces. You can buy every sports Rolex, and may have an outstanding relationship with the Rolex AD… but so what? Do you really need the GMT-Master in every colour? Why? Just because you can? This leads to the next one…

The Paradox of Abundance

The average quality of information is getting worse and worse. But the best stuff is getting better and better. Markets of abundance are simultaneously bad for the median consumer but good for conscious consumers.

Given the complexities of the modern watch collecting landscape, it sometimes feels like there is an abundance of options and opportunities… this makes discernment and discrimination essential for finding true value and meaning. Find your why in this journey, instead of just buying expensive objects for dopamine fixes.

The Map Is Not the Territory

Reality will never match the elegance of theory. All models have inconsistencies, but some are still useful. Some maps are useful because they’re inaccurate. If you want to find an edge, look for what the map leaves out.  

Embrace the subjective and interpretive nature of watch collecting. While catalogues, guides, and descriptions may offer useful insights, ultimately, the experience and enjoyment of watches are deeply personal and individualised. I often suggest the real value in the hobby is actually the people you meet along the way. That may not be true for everyone, but never forget: this is all just stuff!

51: Baker’s Dozen

The key to good hospitality is to delight your guests with an unexpected gift. If you run a hotel, leave a chocolate on the bed. If you run a bakery, give your customers one extra bagel. If you write an article like this, share an extra idea. 

In watch collecting, going the extra mile to add a personal touch to your acquisitions can enhance your overall enjoyment of the hobby. For example, when purchasing a watch, consider adding a custom strap or engraving to make it truly unique to your collection. This thoughtful gesture not only adds sentimental value but also enhances your connection to the timepiece, making it a cherished part of your collection.

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1. “50 Ideas That Changed My Life” by David Perell

2. One actual example from this week… people were discussing ‘watch finishing’ in relation to Simon Brette. They argued he must spend a lot of time on finishing, given how good is work is. This was of course, misinformed, because they failed to consider the CNC machine output, and the relative time taken to hand-finish being lower for Brette because the CNC machine puts out a nearly perfect part before he receives it, and therefore his time spent is in fact much lower than people believe when they see the final product.

3. Computer numerical control, or CNC, is a manufacturing method which automates the control, movement and precision of machine tools through the use of preprogrammed computer software, embedded inside the tools. CNC is commonly used in manufacturing for machining metal (or plastic) parts.